We’re back with the weekly column telling you how Mike Dyce and his friends at Procomputergambler.com think the games will play out. We are doing a special edition for Wednesday’s season opener which has the Dallas Cowboys facing off the New York Giants in the Meadowlands.
Wednesday’s Game is an 8:30 PM EST Start
Dallas Cowboys @ NY Giants -3.5 O/U 45
We see every football fan in North American tune into the divisional game that apparently is the first time a season opener is being held on a Wednesday due to the Presidential speech Thursday. Who would have thought the President could actually reschedule a football game?
Now the computer as introduced in the last column examines trends and statistics most of us would otherwise ignore in predicting the game. Here are a look at some of the trends the computer is taking into consideration.
- Since 2002, the home team in the first NFL game of the season is 6-2-2 (+4.2 ppg) ATS and 9-1-0 (+8.0 ppg) SU.
- Giants are 36-21-0 (+4.1 ppg) since 2004 in the first two months of NFL (In the Coughlin era 2004-Present).
- Over 70% of the bets like the Giants at home.
- Over 60% of the bets like the Over 45.
- Giants are 25-14-2 (+4.2 ppg) OVER the total since 2004 in the first two month of NFL between 46 and 37.
- Tom Coughlin owns the Boys 13-4: 6-2 Home, 7-2 Away against the spread
Now the trends the computer sees surrounding the Cowboys:
- Are only 0-6 ATS (-10.6 ppg) vs. Division opponents since 2011. (2-4-0 (-9.2 ppg) SU).
- Are 5-11-0 (-4.2 ppg) SU average line -2.2 [4-11-1 (-6.3) ATS] since 2010.
- Are only 47-76-0 (-3.1 ppg) SU and 51-70-2 (-1.7 ppg) ATS on the road since 1997.
Computer Projects a Final Score of:
NEW YORK GIANTS 27 DALLAS 20
The line opened at the Giants -3, but because of heavy betting on what we call a key number (3), eventually to get the public to bet more money on the Cowboys, the line has shifted all the way to 4, and then a slight move back to 3.5 So if you bet the Giants with the spread, they need to win by at LEAST 4 points.
The Total of 45, has moved DOWN from 47 but remember, the public LOVES to bet the over in primetime games. Expect the number to move back up throughout the day.
From my human perspective this is how I see it.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose. There are too many offensive struggles and I think they’ll struggle to be an offensive threat. Jason Witten isn’t likely to play leaving the underachieving John Phillips to pick up the slack and late round draft pick and rookie James Hanna to fill the hole at tight end. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are question marks. I think they’ll be productive but not explosive and game changers.
The biggest match up is the New York Giants front seven against the Cowboys’ offensive line. This starting group hasn’t spent much time together at all as they’ve all taken turns battling injuries.
Some will flip the coin and point to the Giants’ LT in charge or protecting Eli’s blindside and the injuries surrounding that position. DeMarcus Ware lining up across makes the Giants nervous and he surely will be a factor but it still gets done.
With the lack of offensive explosion from the Cowboy’s offense and the improved Cowboys secondary I have the Cowboys still losing but in a lower scoring game.
Cowboys 17 Giants 24
The Cowboys seem over matched.
The Computer suggests you bet the following way.
1 Unit -110 New York Giants -4 ($11.00 to return $21.00)
0.5 Units - NYG/DAL Over 45 ($5.50 to return $10.50)
“ATS” – “Against the Spread” – To win, the team that “covers” the spread is the team that beats the imaginary “head start” given to the stronger team.
Eg. The Cowboys are a 7 point favorite against the Redskins – If you bet the Cowboys, they must win by MORE than 7 points, if you bet the Redskins, they must Win outright, OR Lose by LESS than 7 points. If the Cowboys win by 7, all bets are returned, and is known as a “Push”
“Fading” = Betting against
“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage
“SU” – Straight Up Winner
“Total” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined score of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.
“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)
“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events. .
“Public” – The “general” consensus of the common folk who essentially dictate the price of the two teams once the odds are set. Note***The Pubic rarely wins.
***If you’d like to get the full stats, on EVERY team in the league – as well as the Best bets of the night via email, sign up now to the Procomputergambler.com website.