The Bills are falling fast after such high expectations to start the year, and the Jaguars are one of the NFL’s worst teams. Nonetheless, AccuScore has run its simulation 10,000 times for this contest, and finds the Bills as one of the bigger favorites this week.
Here are the results:
- If Jacksonville out-gains Buffalo in the running game, they become the 55% favorite to win. However, if C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson rush for more than the Jaguars, they become the 84% favorite for the game.
- If Chad Henne can throw for at least 250 yards, 2 TD, and no interceptions, then the Jaguars are a slight favorite at 54%
- If Buffalo has a positive turnover margin, they are favored at 82% to win the game. They have a 53% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit
- C.J. Spiller has a 31% chance of scoring at least one rushing touchdown
- Overall the Bills are a 67% favorite to win on Sunday afternoon and will move to 5-7 on the season while dropping the Jaguars to 2-10.
The Jags passing game has been explosive the past two weeks whereas the Bills running game continues to be near the top of the league.
I actually expect a high-scoring affair with the Bills coming out on top.
Accuscore Prediction (Based on 10,000 simulations): Bills 24 Jaguars 18
My Prediction: Bills 35 Jaguars 31