At the beginning of the year I brought you my series on how to bet certain NFL games entitled “Roll with Dyce.” We are reprising this column for the season finale to give you an edge at all your Super Bowl parties this Sunday. For the “Roll with Dyce” series we partnered with our friends at Pro Computer Gambler.
Total Touchdowns Scored by Both Teams – 5.5
PCG says that their simulations have a low scoring game, and they suspect that you should take the under in this Super Bowl. I think that the two highly touted defenses . Baltimore gave up 5 touchdowns against Denver in the second round. But against Indianapolis they gave up zero, and New England only reached the end zone once. That’s an average of 2 touchdowns a game.
The 49ers have been less successful in this regard winning in more shoot outs. They’ve given up 7 touchdowns in 2 games, which averages out to 3.5 TDs a game.
Put those together and you get 5.5 TDS, which is the line. But in a game that features two strong running teams and two even stronger defenses go for the under.
PCG has a surprise choice, back up running back Bernard Pierce. There likely could be a lot of running in this Super Bowl. In the AFC Championship Bernard Pierce was the more efficient runner despite featured back Ray Rice being the one to find the endzone.
Will the team that scores first win the game?
I don’t really know what to think about this one. But PCG says to bet NO, and they’re track record is pretty strong.
Total Field Goals – 3.5
They said to take the over here. We’ve seen how field goals have won and lost games in the playoffs and Super Bowls past. The 49ers attempted two field goals this post season and converted one. The Ravens have also attempted only 2 field goals but have converted both. With two strong defenses in this Super Bowl we could see them come on more.
First Points Scored
They say to take David Akers, with a field goal here. I have no insight here other than I think a kicker is a safe bet to open up the scoring.
Will there be a score less quarter?
PCG and I both say no. I think scoring will be steady and it’s not the SEC.
No Two Point Conversion Made
This is a no brainer I think, we say that there won’t be. This is already a rare football play as it is much less a rarer play in the Super Bowl.
Arrowhead Addict has compiled some other prop bets that are a little more light hearted and fun.
UPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS – Will Alicia Keys be booed during or after her rendition of the US National Anthem?
SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS – Will Beyonce’s hair be Curly/Crimped OR Straight at the beginning of the Super Bowl Halftime show?
Straight -140 (5/7) -200
Curly/Crimped EVEN (1/1) +150
SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS – How many times will Harbaugh be said during the game?
Over/Under 20 ½ 21 ½
SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS – Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first?
Teammates 5/4 8/5
Family 12/1 15/1
Owner 15/1 20/1
Does Not Thank Anyone 9/4 3/2