Week 4: Picks Against the Spread

For this week’s picks against the spread, we had a couple of writers submit their selections for the week:

Todd Levinson Frank

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs. New York Giants

So two weeks ago, the Chiefs were favored by 3 at home vs. a decent Dallas team and now KC is coming off extra rest (and two more weeks of proof that they are a solid team with a good defense) against a Giants team that lost to Dallas and has since become a dumpster fire. And the Chiefs are only favored by 4.5? I realize Cap’n Checkdown Alex Smith hasn’t earned the full -8.5 treatment that Vegas gives QBs like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees, but shouldn’t this line be at least a solid -7?

People bet on perception and what they’ve seen recently. KC just won on the road in a primetime game on national TV, got 10 days rest, and now play at home against a squad that was just shellacked 38-0 and by all accounts is a really bad team right now. Plus, obviously Andy Reid is very familiar with the Giants from his days in Philly preparing for the G-men twice a year. KC’s Arrowhead Stadium is certainly worth a full 3-point home-field advantage (both historically, and with this being just the 2nd home game and the Chiefs looking good at 3-0.)

Of course, the oddsmakers are not predicting results; they are trying to get action on both sides. Who wants to bet on NYG (who can’t protect Eli Manning) on the road vs. a really good defense right now? The Giants are a popular team from the league’s biggest market, and perhaps close to the Patriots/Cowboys/Packers/

Steelers Mt. Rushmore of public teams that people love to bet on, but at some point that stuff goes out the window and the teams have to play the game.

Assuming Vegas needs/wants some action on NYG, shouldn’t they be enticing Giants backers with +7 or more? Perhaps they are trying to milk one more week of “The Giants gotta win sometime” fever that had most people betting them last week at Carolina. Maybe just setting the line anywhere above 3.5 is enough to get some action on the Giants.

The Chiefs are clearly the better team, playing at home off extra rest. Even if the Giants can fix a few things and play better, Kansas City should win this game by at least 7 or more. My Best Bet of Week 4: Take the Chiefs and lay the 4.5 points.

Keith Demolder

New Orleans Saints -6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

After going 3-0 and surprising NFL critics (including me), Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins have proved that they are a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. What has surprised me about these Dolphins has been their ability to keep games close, whether it has been through their secondary, or through Ryan Tannehill and their offense, which has averaged about 25 points-per-game so far this season. With the exception of week one, the Dolphins have run the ball quite well, with RBs Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller combining for 191 yards and 2 TDs over the past two games against the formidible defenses of the Falcons and Colts. However, the main focal point for this Miami team has been Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Passing Game. Over the first three games, Tannehill has thrown for an average of 275 yards-per-game passing along with at least 1 touchdown. A huge improvement from his rookie season when the former Aggie only threw for over 275 twice, once vs. the Cards and the other vs. the Colts.  If Tannehill can sustain this type of play against the Saints recalibrated defense, the Dolphins can do anything in this game. In the past 3 games, the 3-0 Saints have only allowed 38 points to opposing offenses, incredible considering how they were the worst defense in the history of the NFL last season. For the Dolphins to pull this win out, which I think they will, Tannehill will have to be absolutely dynamite to compete with Drew Brees and the Saints unstoppable passing game. Look for a shootout in the Big Easy, as Tannehill and Brees will both combine for over 800 yards passing.

Dolphins-24 Saints-17