Julius Thomas has indeed become even better

Denver Broncos superstar tight end Julius Thomas exploded onto the scene in Week 1 of last year, and the most versatile member of the “Four Horsemen” (though that’s arguable now with Emmanuel Sanders in the fold) hasn’t looked back since. With another year to further develop his route-running and refine other skills at the nuanced TE position, many predicted that Thomas would have an even better year. Well, four games into the 2014 season, Thomas has indeed gotten better statistically, even if the Broncos are using him as more of a chain-mover on shorter passing plays.

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Despite the fact that Thomas is rarely being sent deep on his targets, he’s still averaging just 0.5 yards less per reception (11.8 to 11.3), and this has allowed the elite TE to become even more consistent. Among all qualifying TEs (over ten targets), Orange Julius is the leader in catch rate, as he is catching an overwhelming 83.3% of everything thrown at him. That’s a ridiculous number, because it means that five of every six passes Peyton Manning throws in his direction are being caught. And at only 0.5 yards per reception less, that means Peyton is hitting him up for 9.4 yards per target.

So how do the yards per target and catch rate totals compare to his numbers last season? His YPT was a crisp 8.6 last year to go with a 72.8% catch rate, but those numbers clearly pale in comparison to what the more refined- and, thus, consistent- Thomas is pulling this season so far. Although he isn’t averaging as many yards per target as Sanders’s whopping 10.4, he has a higher catch rate. Keep in mind that Thomas is also the league leader in touchdown receptions (a more important stat for fantasy owners than catch rate, of course), meaning that the TDs put a bit of a cap on how many yards he totals per reception.

If he were to keep up this unlikely TD pace, then Thomas would haul in an incredible 28 touchdowns by the end of the year, and it’s scary to think that’s already put up seven scores for the Broncos offense. Despite two games with just 39 and 17 receiving yards, Thomas is averaging slightly more catches and yards per game than he did last season, though is efficiency stats are clearly up when looking at things from a per-target basis (much as you would evaluate QBs from a per-attempt basis or running backs from a per-carry basis).

Peyton Manning hasn’t gotten any better or worse, and the players around him haven’t improved enough to significantly increase his stats. It’s still just four games into the season, but, from a statistical standpoint, it’s clear that Julius Thomas is performing at an even higher level. This, again, shouldn’t be surprising, considering that Thomas came out of nowhere last season, and the athletic specimen has developed his game mentally after working with Peyton, Adam Gase, and Co. for a full season. His run blocking still needs some work, but his pass-catching, hands (no drops so far on those 24 targets), and red zone ability are all more than fine.

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