Matt Ryan propped up by supporting cast? Not so fast

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had a sensational opening game this regular season, as he tore up the New Orleans Saints in a Week  1 overtime victory. “Matty Ice” was all the elements in that game, earning our site’s “Player of the Week” award thanks to 448 passing yards, three touchdowns, no picks, and a completion percentage around 72%. Unfortunately, Ryan followed that up with a three-interception game, and he’s thrown seven on the season already, which is tied for second-highest in the league (Kirk Cousins is on top- or, rather, the bottom- with eight). After completing just 19-37 passes in Sunday’s 27-13 loss to the Chicago Bears, Ryan was the subject of this Twitter conversation between a few respected NFL writers (to prove that the premise of this piece is indeed to counter a legitimate argument made by some).

Their somewhat controversial thoughts on Ryan don’t seem to be completely unique, but I, nevertheless, respectfully- and vehemently- disagree with them. The notion that Ryan is simply propped by Julio Jones and Roddy White makes little sense, because that’s a little bit short-sighted. As important as wide receivers are (and as good as White and Jones are), a quarterback’s supporting cast extends beyond the players he is throwing it to. And when you extend Ryan’s supporting cast, you’ll see that the players around him are pretty low in quality, and he could easily be the victim of unrealistic expectations.

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I don’t think there’s any argument that the Falcons defense is one of the worst in the NFL, because they don’t have anything resembling a legitimate pass rush. In fact, statistically they have been the worst pass defense this season, allowing a league-high eight yards per attempt. That’s just absurd, because it means that opposing passing attacks are averaging eight yards per attempt on the Falcons even when you include sacks to lower the total. Tony Romo had to overcome some shoddy pass defense last season in order to win shootouts, but what Ryan has to do in order to keep the pace is damn near impossible.

But in a micro sense, pass defense doesn’t directly effect the play of the quarterback, because Robert Alford getting burned in coverage doesn’t cause Matt Ryan to throw interceptions, right? It just puts more pressure on him to make aggressive downfield passes and makes it harder to win. The former statement, though, makes things interesting, because, per the Pro Football Focus, Ryan has thrown four interceptions on deep passes this year (more than half of his total INTs) despite having a very respectable accuracy percentage on those throws.

Last season, Ryan completed 67.4% of his passes despite playing behind one of the NFL’s most notoriously leaky offensive lines, and the Falcons were completely bereft of a running game with Steven Jackson either injured or ineffective. Ryan’s 17 interceptions and ensuing 2.6% INT% were career-highs, but he actually played at a high level. Based on what we saw earlier this year from Tom Brady, throughout the year from Nick Foles, and last year from Eli Manning, it’s that poor offensive line play can destroy quarterbacks. When they no longer feel comfortable, they start getting erratic with their decision-making, and that’s why we saw Eli throw even more picks than usual last year, and it’s also why Ryan’s and Foles’s interceptions have gone up in the face of deteriorating play up front.

While the Falcons offensive line is indeed better this season, Ryan has still faced pressure at the eighth-highest rate among quarterbacks this year, per PFF. He’s been pressured 17, 17, and 14 times in his past three games, and he’s been hit 18 times all season. He doesn’t have much time to throw, and that’s shown up on the stat sheet. Sometimes it’s not even about the actual pressure itself, but rather the mental effects of consistently being under duress. After all, Ryan isn’t the most-pressured quarterback in the league, but the amount of heat has been consistently high enough.

Interestingly enough, his wide receivers haven’t supported him too much this season, but he proved last season that he can still ball with Julio Jones and Roddy White healthy. Despite only having a truly healthy White and a healthy Jones for a few weeks in the regular season, Ryan was still one of the most accurate quarterbacks last season (fourth in completion percentage) despite the huge boost in interceptions.

This season, Jones has been fantastic, but you can’t really say the same about everyone else. Ryan’s pass-catchers have dropped 15 passes this season, and, according to PFF, no quarterback has been hurt more by drops overall, as his pass-catchers have left more yards on the table than anyone else. Jones has four drops, but he’s also been targeted frequently. The bigger culprit has been White, who has dropped three passes and is playing some disappointing ball this year (Levine Toilolo is the “leader” with five drops on just 21 targets). With just 19 receptions on 39 targets, White sports a catch rate of 48.7%, which is absolutely disgusting. If anyone is overrated on this Falcons offense, then you might as well point the finger at White, who is averaging a subpar 6.5 yards per target (especially in comparison to Ryan’s robust 7.9 yards per attempt).

Harry Douglas and Devin Hester have done some nice things on 20 and 17 targets each, and the wide receivers are definitely talented as a whole. But if you think that they are “propping up” Ryan, then you might as well state that every great quarterback is a product of the talented wide receivers around them; they aren’t, it’s a mutualistic relationship, but it hasn’t been working at optimal effectiveness with White struggling. We can tell it’s White’s fault, because Jones, Hester, and Douglas all have perfectly fine yards per target and catch rates.

Of course, none of this is mentioning the fact that the Falcons are, once again, a one-dimensional team on offense, because they continue to struggle to consistently run the ball. Their average of 4.6 yards per attempt is superficial, because it’s bloated from the big plays Antone Smith has. Steven Jackson and Devonta Freeman are averaging just 3.8 and 3.7 yards per carry respectively, and No. 3 back Jacquizz Rodgers isn’t doing much better with a 4.1 YPC. Against the Bears, the Falcons ran the ball just 11 times with running backs, forcing Ryan to try and carry the offense whilst facing too much pressure. The fact that he managed over seven yards per attempt without throwing multiple interceptions is a victory in itself, and those of you with PFF access will see that the site graded him surprisingly well.

Ryan isn’t without flaws, and that’s one reason why he isn’t widely ranked as a top-five quarterback. But to say that he’s overrated or isn’t a top ten QB is to overrate his supporting cast or, to use a cliche, miss the forest for the trees. The trees, in this sense, are his still gelling offensive line and anemic rushing game, but the interesting thing is that one of his elite wide receivers isn’t clicking. The Falcons entire team is built on Ryan and the passing game, because they don’t have much elsewhere. Ryan is, quite honestly, the victim of unrealistic expectations, and the arguments some are having this year are knee-jerk reactions to a subpar statistical performance and a high rate of interceptions.

Upon further examination, Ryan is still pretty much dealing with the same external issues as last season, and he’s still producing respectable analytics. His completion percentage is down this year, but his yards per attempt are up, and he’s still, per Advanced Football Analytics, seven in EPA and WPA, meaning he’s doing a very good job of putting his team in a good position to win.