Teddy Bridgewater hard to evaluate fairly to this point
Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr were my two highest-rated rookie quarterbacks (in that respective order) entering the season, and neither player has failed to live up to my expectations thus far. Carr has received more praise so far this season, and he’s definitely stepped into a difficult situation with the Oakland Raiders without a viable running game or legitimate No. 1 receiver. And while the left side of the offensive line has been fantastic, Carr hasn’t been protected comfortably in his rookie season.
Of course, the pressure Carr has faced pales in comparison to what Bridgewater has had to deal with on a week-to-week basis. According to Pro-Football Reference, only Colin Kaepernick, Austin Davis, Cam Newton, and Kyle Orton have been sacked on a higher percentage of their total drop-backs. And per the Pro Football Focus, Bridgewater has also faced pressure on 39.8% of his pass attempts, which is sixth among QBs (Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson, and Davis were the only ones to face more).
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Bridgewater and Davis are the only quarterbacks in the top six in both categories, so it’s safe to say that their offensive lines haven’t done the best job of keeping them clean. I think most people who have observed the Vikings would wholeheartedly agree that this is the case for Bridgewater, and the sad thing is that offensive line play was supposed to be a big strength for the Vikings. But who knew 2013 breakout guard Brandon Fusco would get injured, Matt Kalil would go from a promising left tackle to a turnstile, and Phil Loadholt and John Sullivan would be mediocre instead of dominant? Just about the only unsurprising thing on the offensive line has been the poor play of Charlie Johnson, which isn’t positive either.
With an average of 6.7 yards per attempt and a completion percentage of 60.7%, Bridgewater has been mediocre statistically as a rookie, but it’s unfair to compare him to all of the quarterbacks in the league. If you only compare him to the rookies, his stats look more favorable. His ESPN TQBR is just slightly below Carr’s, but the difference between 44.38 and 44.09 is pretty much negligible. Blake Bortles‘s is around 25, and I think it’s only appropriate to compare Carr and Bridgewater, which is funny since Bortles has the better supporting cast despite also having a terrible offensive line.
Carr has a higher completion percentage (61.1%), but Bridgewater has been able to challenge defenses more frequently, largely because Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Olson has been taking a very conservative approach with his strong-armed rookie. Bridgewater’s average of 6.7 yards per attempt is significantly greater than Carr’s 5.6. Moreover, 33% of his passes have gone for a first down, while Carr is at just 29% (Bortles is actually in between them). And although Carr has been much more prolific at throwing touchdowns, he’s thrown slightly more interceptions with an INT% of 2.7% compared to 2.5% for Bridgewater. This means that, as a percentage of their total pass attempts, Carr has thrown INTs at a slightly higher rate, but I would argue that this difference isn’t noteworthy (they have the 13th and 14th-highest INT% among all QBs this year).
The common thread here is that both rookie quarterbacks aren’t doing as well as the rest of the players at the position, but this is something everyone expected. Even a pro-ready QB like Bridgewater can’t be expected to put up solid numbers, especially if they don’t have adequate support around them. With all the pressure he’s faced, it’s hard to evaluate him fairly to this point in the season, though it is interesting to note that, per PFF, he’s been one of the five most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL when under pressure, and this fits the scouting reports; he was well-regarded for his poise in college.
In the title, I made sure to add the qualifier “up to this point”, because his supporting cast is about to improve. Kyle Rudolph is set to return from an injury, and he should be out there this week. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson seems to be drawing closer to a return, and my money is on the NFL allowing him back sooner rather than later. Both additions will be huge, especially since Peterson won’t have to face completely stacked boxes. While Bridgewater hasn’t set the world on fire, an average of 6.7 yards per attempt isn’t a bad total.
He’s proven that he’s capable of efficiently moving an offense, and he’s doing it despite Cordarrelle Patterson hindering the offense with a ghastly 46.4% catch rate with 5.5 yards per target. We know Bridgewater isn’t the one forcing him the ball, since he never forced the ball to receivers at Louisville (he always likes to move through reads and spread the ball around), and why would he force it to the risky Patterson instead of the safe, more-likely-to-be-open Greg Jennings? The answer: Norv Turner. The solution: Getting more weapons in Rudolph and Peterson, so that there’s less of an impetus to force the ball to the playmaking Patterson, as well as more players to help Patterson find more room to get open (we know he doesn’t have the route-running chops yet to get open without help).
While it’s not impossible to evaluate Teddy Bridgewater, it’s important to remember that we can’t draw many major conclusions from his play, because he’s simply been under pressure too often. But one conclusion we can make, based on the PFF stat that he has the fifth-highest accuracy percentage among QBs under pressure, is that he’s dealing with it well. Once Rudolph comes back and if Peterson returns, I think we’ll have at least a slightly better idea of where Bridgewater stands as a QB, and I think we’ll receive some more positive returns from the mature rookie.