Will DeMarco Murray get a full workload?

Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray has been the best back in the NFL this season, but he probably won’t receive his usual workload of 20+ carries this week against the Washington Redskins. Since the Cowboys obliterated the Indianapolis Colts last week following the Washington Redskins upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles, they are already locked into the playoffs. The Cowboys could earn a playoff bye, but the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks would have to lose their NFC West rivals (the St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers, respectively) in addition to a Cowboys win. Although victory is far from certain, it would be a shock for the Cowboys to drop one to the lowly Redskins. Even though the Redskins are a rival and dispatched of the Eagles last week, I can’t see the Cowboys offense disappointing here in Week 17.

Murray received 22 carries last week against the Colts despite a hand injury, but he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry for the second straight week. With the way the Cowboys have been using him, it seems like they are willing to wear him down before letting him leave in free agency, since they’ll already have to commit money to the even more important Dez Bryant. Even so, it would behoove the Cowboys to keep their star back fresh for the postseason. A playoff bye would help the most, but easing his workload in Week 17 could also go a long way. Even if the Cowboys win, a playoff bye is far from a guarantee, especially since it’s hard to see the Seahawks losing with the way they have played in recent weeks.

The Cowboys have two running backs who are set to hit the free agent market this offseason, as Lance Dunbar is also on an expiring contract, though he is only a restricted free agent. Before the season started, it seemed like the Cowboys would run a two-headed rushing attack under Scott Linehan with plenty of receptions going to both backs. That hasn’t happened, as the normally injury-prone Murray has stayed healthy and hoarded touches as an MVP candidate behind the Cowboys elite offensive line. Dunbar, on the other hand, has received just 28 carries with 18 receptions on the year.

Dunbar won’t be poached by anyone this offseason, but it will be interesting to see if the Cowboys feel comfortable with him being part of a plan to replace Murray if they choose to let the elite back leave. I’m sure they’ve had plenty of opportunities to evaluate him outside of actual games, but with only 28 carries this season, it’s hard to tell if his 3.4 yards per carry are the result of small sample-size or an inability to take advantage of the stellar blocking in front of him.

It seems more likely, though, that the Cowboys would give former Oklahoma State star Joseph Randle most of the carries if they decide to rest Murray. Even though their feature back had 22 carries against the Colts, Randle received plenty of carries in the out-of-hand affair. 37 yards on 13 carries isn’t the best haul, but Randle has an impressive 5.8 yards per carry this season on 47 attempts. Dunbar has a bigger role in the offense and will most likely have a bigger role this week due to his impact int he passing game, but Randle is the No. 2 guy when it comes to carries. Despite some incidents earlier this year, he’s become an interesting player for the Cowboys.

Last week against the Colts, Murray had trouble in pass protection, and this was expected due to his hand injury. Dunbar still had just two catches despite the fact that he received an increase role in the passing game due to Murray’s injury, and I have a feeling that could be due for a change against the Redskins linebackers. This is a guy who has skill in that facet of the game, and it would be wise for the Cowboys to unleash Dunbar as a pass-catcher. When he has been given the chance to show his stuff in the passing game, he’s looked pretty darn good.

Since the Week 11 bye, DeMarco Murray hasn’t carried the rock less than 20 times, and he hasn’t run the ball less than 19 times all season. It might be time for the Cowboys to give him a bit of a breather before the playoffs start, especially against a Redskins defense that is pretty stout up front with just 3.9 yards per carry allowed. If Dunbar is afforded more carries, facing the Redskins run D would be a good test for him. It hasn’t been the best of seasons for him on the ground in limited action, but I wonder if his second game with plentiful carries (he had 11 in a disappointing Week 2 performance against the Tennessee Titans) will yield better results.

The Cowboys decision, of course, rests on their comfort with Murray going into the playoffs, because they have to manage his hand injury and the desire to have him as fresh as possible for much more important games ahead. I think they should let him have his normal workload on the ground in the first half before turning things over to Dunbar in the second half if things get out of hand. I would almost completely reduce his role in the passing game, but his carries could be something that will be evaluated based on the flow of the game. Since Murray has been able to practice, the hand injury isn’t much of an issue, so the main issue is trying to make sure Murray is 100% for the postseason; a limited role makes the most sense to me, but it would be his first game with limited carries of the entire season.

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