Jonathan Stewart big key against Arizona Cardinals

Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart has finally given Cam Newton and the offense a running game to fall back on, and while he didn’t have his best day in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons, he’s proven to be a solid feature back again. Stewart’s talent has never been put into question, and we saw him go off in the preseason against the Kansas City Chiefs. Health has been the huge question for Stewart, and it’s no coincidence that he’s producing now that he’s healthy for the first time since 2011, which was also the last time he averaged more than four yards per carry in a season.

The Arizona Cardinals defense is a top-five unit, as they do an excellent job of limiting the opposition from scoring (just 18.7 points per game allowed) and generate plenty of turnovers. That said, this is a bend-but-don’t-break defense that has allowed plenty of yards, and opponents do gain 4.4 yards per carry against the Cardinals front seven. The Cardinals run defense isn’t bad at all, but we’ve seen two division rivals with hard-nosed feature backs put up strong numbers against them.

In Week 16, San Francisco 49ers maligned RB Frank Gore pounded the Cardinals for 144 yards on 25 carries, and Seattle Seahawks elite RB Marshawn Lynch needed just ten carries to put up 113 yards and two TDs, thanks to a legendary 79-yard touchdown run that just oozed “Beast Mode”. Stewart isn’t as big of a name as those two backs, but he has more than enough talent to make the Cardinals defense pay if given enough room to run. He had 809 rushing yards on 175 carries for an average of 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season, and that includes a 122-yard rushing day against the Cleveland Browns and a 155-yard rushing day against the rival Cleveland Browns.

Of course, the Cardinals run defense is much more formidable than the Browns or Saints run D, but, as the 4.4 yards per carry allowed indicate, they can be beaten. Stewart has been solid in the five games since becoming the Panthers clear-cut No. 1 back, though the Cardinals can feel happy knowing that he has run for just two touchdowns on the season. Calais Campbell and Dan Williams are two of the best defensive linemen in the league against the run, and young inside linebacker Kevin Minter is an excellent downhill run-stuffer who can explode through gaps.

In the first 11 weeks of the regular season, the Cardinals allowed just one team to run for more than 100 yards on them, so it’s only recently that opponents have managed to run with success against the Cards. Since it is a league of streaks and recent play, the fact that they have allowed five of their last six opponents to run for at least 120 yards is of some concern, and it’s something that goes in the Panthers favor. With 2,036 rushing yards, the Panthers are seventh in the league in rushing and averaged a decent 4.3 yards per carry in the regular season, and that includes a spell during the first half of the season in which DeAngelo Williams was the main back.

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Williams will return from his hand injury today to face the Cardinals, but it’s clear that the Panthers aren’t going to go back to an RB who has shown little explosiveness. Jonathan Stewart outperformed his former partner in every way possible this season, but any carries for D-Will would be a plus for the Cardinals defense. There might not be a player more responsible for the Panthers recent success than Stewart, who has been electric in the last five games.

To wit, according to the Pro Football Focus, he forced 56 missed tackles on just 200 touches, and he also had 2.60 yards after contact per rush. Those are impressive numbers behind a subpar offensive line, and only Lynch had a higher “elusive rating” (uses missed tackles forced, yards after contact, and total carries to measure an RB’s success outside of his blocking).

Based on what he’s shown ever since returning to health and the role as the Panthers lead back, Stewart has quietly been one of the league’s most dangerous backs. Per PFF, he’s had 11 runs that have gone for at least 15 yards, so his trademark explosiveness and game-breaking ability are back.

Stewart is a huge reason why the Panthers are in the playoffs and on a winning streak, so he could very well be the key to victory for this offense. Since Newton and the passing attack will have to face a talented, ball-hawking secondary, plenty is riding on Stewart’s ability to continue to provide some balance for this offense in addition to playmaking ability.

The Cardinals run defense is a solid unit, but they aren’t elite and haven’t played their best ball in recent weeks. On the other hand, Stewart did play at his best in the second half of the season, and his ability to make defenders miss is no joke; the Cardinals linebackers and safeties will have to be on notice throughout today’s contest.

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