Jacksonville Jaguars Cecil Shorts interesting buy-low option for contenders
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts is coming off of the worst full season season of his four-year career, and the numbers he produced this season were well below the average in every aspect. Shorts missed three more games this year due to an injury and continues to be a weekly injury rusk with nagging soft-tissue issues, but the injuries were far from the biggest problem for Shorts in 2014.
Shorts was the least reliable receiver on the Jaguars this past season, as he posted the lowest catch rate of any receiver on the team. Rookie wideouts Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns were all more reliable than Shorts, and that’s scary given that these guys all came into the league as raw talents (especially Lee).
Per Advanced Football Analytics, Shorts caught just 46.6% of everything thrown at him, and that’s an inexcusably low percentage, even if you factor in Blake Bortles‘s struggles at quarterback. Shorts led the team in targets at 103, but he clearly failed to make the most of them, with his 10.8 yards per reception putting his yards per target at a team-low 5.0.
Those are horrible numbers, and it’s not surprising that the Jaguars aren’t expected to bring him back when his contract runs out in March. They have three very promising young wideouts in Hurns, Lee, and Robinson, and all three of them outperformed the veteran this season. Shorts finished the year with 53 receptions for 557 yards and a touchdown, and he only posted 42.8 receiving yards per game with over 50 receiving yards in just three games.
It was one of the most disappointing seasons by a receiver this season, but Shorts didn’t exactly have a strong 2013 either. With more quarterback issues, Shorts struggled to a 53.6% catch rate and 6.3 yards per target, though he did average about 60 receiving yards per game. It was an inefficient season for the Mount Union product, but at least he was able to produce respectable enough counting stats. That clearly wasn’t the case in 2014, and the Jaguars are better off going with higher upside receivers. Of course, it’s hard to evaluate someone when they don’t receive strong quarterback play, and that makes Shorts an intriguing option on the free agent market.
At this point, I would be surprised if the Jacksonville Jaguars brought him back, and while it’s a possibility, it’s more likely that they go into 2015 with their young guys as the top trio (I leave out Justin Blackmon, since they can’t count on anything from him). Shorts is fully expected to hit the open market, and his subpar numbers over the past two seasons in combination with his nagging injuries will force him to take a cheap, one-year contract.
Since the team that signs Shorts wouldn’t have to make much of a commitment to a receiver whose arrow is trending downwards, I think he will be a good buy-low candidate for contenders who can use him as a No. 3 or 4 wide receiver in their offense. Although he struggled badly in 2013 and 2014, there’s a strong chance that better QB play would coax some efficiency out of the 27-year-old. It’s possible that his struggles are more about his inability to stay healthy, but that makes him worth a flier on a one-year contract, especially since the teams that should be interested in him are contenders looking for a luxury piece for their offense.
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These last two seasons have taken the shine off of Cecil Shorts, but he was once one of the league’s most underrated receivers and seemed to be locked in as a solid, WR2-caliber player after his breakout 2012 season. In that year, Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards, seven touchdowns, and averaged 17.8 yards per reception as a playmaker who could threaten any defense. Since then, his yards, touchdowns, and YPR have all declined, as the Jaguars haven’t used him in that same playmaking capacity ever since the new coaching staff took over. There are so many unknown variables involved with Shorts, but his 2012 season still exists as a big selling point for potential buyers this offseason.
In 2012, Shorts caught just 52.4% of the passes thrown at him for an even lower catch rate than in his 2013 season, but he still averaged 9.3 yards per target because of his huge yards per reception average. I think he could be an effective playmaker if a team decided to sign him with the intention of harnessing his playmaking ability, and it’s hard to ignore the seven touchdowns he caught in that season. He’s never going to be a reliable receiver, so it’s best for a team to utilize him as a true playmaker instead of trying to make him play as something that he isn’t. There’s obvious talent in Shorts, and he showed the league what he can do as a breakout small-school player in 2012.
It’s important to note, though, that there’s a chance Shorts’s soft-tissue injuries have been the actual contributor to his decline in yards per reception and productivity, rather than usage. I’m not entirely sure this explains most of his decline in production, though, since the percentage of times he’s been targeted on passes of at least 15 yards has steadily declined in each of his past three seasons, culminating in a career low 20.4% as compared to his career average of 27.1% and 2012 Deep% of 32.6%.
There’s reason to believe that a contender with a good QB could help him get his career back on track. While Shorts doesn’t have good hands, he can make things happen after the catch and displayed remarkable efficiency and playmaking ability in 2012. Per Pro Football Focus, QBs had a 94.5 QB Rating when targeting him, and he was tenth in the NFL in yards per route run, which underscores how promising he looked in 2012. Shorts was also tenth in the league with 6.7 yards after the catch per reception, and that ability to make things happen after the catch outweighed his drops.
Health is definitely a big issue for him, and it’s a huge reason why he shouldn’t get anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal. If he can find the right situation and get back to somewhere around his 2012 form, then he would prove to be a valuable asset and could parlay that one-year contract into a steady deal. Finding the right team, getting back to health, and being used as a playmaker are three conditions that must be met, but with a chance of a high return, signing Shorts as an investment looks like a solid move, and I could actually see a team like the Seattle Seahawks showing interest in him.