T.Y. Hilton must be big against elite Denver Broncos pass D
The Indianapolis Colts had no issues coasting past the Cincinnati Bengals last week, as the scoreline could have easily favored the home side by an even wider margin. Andrew Luck carved up the Bengals defense in a dominant showing, capped off by a jaw-dropping touchdown pass to Donte Moncrief that showcased some unreal poise and arm strength as he dropped a beautiful pass into a bucket. His star receiver, T.Y. Hilton, didn’t look completely healthy early on due to his hamstring injury, as he committed three lousy drops and only hauled in six of his 14 targets.
That said, Hilton didn’t have a poor performance overall last week, because he did turn those six catches to 103 yards against a solid secondary that doesn’t get burned often. But the Bengals had no answer for Hilton’s speed and quickness on Sunday, as he got open at will and could have had a fighting chance at 200 had his hands not failed him. During the regular season, Hilton dropped just five passes with 82 receptions to his name, so the drops in the Wild Card round were uncharacteristic.
Those mistakes can’t happen this week against the Denver Broncos, because they need Hilton to shine on a huge stage. They will face a team that has no weaknesses, because the Broncos run defense is one of the best in the league, their passing attack is as explosive as they come, C.J. Anderson has been a monster ever since taking the feature back gig, and the pass defense is downright scary.
Just how good are the guys he’s facing?
The article linked above makes the case for why Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. formed the league’s best cornerback tandem in 2014, and Harris was particularly dominant. In my view, only Vontae Davis and Richard Sherman are with Harris in the argument for best CB of 2014, as the Broncos criminally underrated shutdown corner owned all parts of the field while allowing a QB Rating of just 47.8., per Pro Football Focus.
He made plays on the ball all season long, picking off three passes without allowing a single touchdown. Opposing quarterbacks completed a meager 51.7% of their passes against him, and the rare completion went for a staggering 7.7 yards per reception. In other words, Harris never got burned, and the longest pass he allowed was 22 yards. Twenty-freaking-two. By comparison, a Mr. T.Y. Hilton led the NFL with 17 games of at least 25 receiving yards, and he showed off that ridiculous explosiveness last week against the Bengals.
Hilton finished the 2014 season as one of the best ten wide receivers in the NFL, posting over 1,300 receiving yards, averaging nearly 90 per game, scoring seven touchdowns, and putting up 16.4 per catch on defenses. So whenever Hilton takes his elite skills and blazing speed against Harris this week, something will have to give. Again, the man he’s facing has never allowed a pass over 22 yards this season, has never allowed a touchdown, and allows a QB Rating under 50.
Who does he have the best shot at beating?
His best chance of beating the Broncos secondary is going deep against the other half of the Broncos elite cornerback duo or rookie CB Bradley Roby, but it’s not like either of those players are easy to beat. Talib is one of the league’s best press corners and has exceptional ball skills, but his lack of long speed leaves him vulnerable against speedy receivers.
We all remember Josh Gordon‘s memorable long TD against him last season, and those are the kinds of plays that the former Patriots star can allow. That said, the longest pass he allowed was a 39-yarder, and he didn’t allow many big plays either with just 10.5 yards per reception against him this season. With a catch rate allowed of just 57.9%, Talib, as usual, doesn’t give much breathing room to opposing receivers, and he’ll play his brand of physical coverage against the Colts star.
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Roby had an up-and-down rookie year, but it was mostly “up”, especially since he came into the league rough around the edges. Misused as a zone corner in his final season at Ohio State, Roby has elite physical tools and likes roughing receivers in man coverage. That said, he did allow six touchdown passes, a catch rate over 65%, and a QB Rating near 100. Those numbers are way bloated since he gets picked on whenever he’s on the field (I mean, I’d rather throw it to a rookie than two sure-fire top-15 corners), but I doubt he would be able to hang with a top-notch playmaker like Hilton in coverage.
The Broncos offense has the ability to put up points in a hurry, and it would be unwise to count on more surprising struggles from legendary signal-caller Peyton Manning, especially since Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have been lighting it up for this team. Throw in Anderson and a run defense that allows 3.7 yards per carry, and you’ll see why the Broncos are such a deadly adversary.
As a whole, the Broncos pass D is elite
With just 5.3 net yards per attempt allowed, per Pro-Football Reference, the Broncos fielded one of the NFL’s elite pass defenses, even though they were also the most thrown-at secondary in the NFL due to all the comeback attempts. With 18 interceptions, they will make plays on the ball, and there’s no doubt in my mind that this is one of those rare pass defenses that can stop a guy like Luck. Armed with two top-class pass rushers, the Broncos could harass Luck into making mistakes, and their secondary has the ball skills to make him pay.
The Colts have plenty of pass-catching depth with the likes of Donte Moncrief, Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, Hakeem Nicks, and Coby Fleener, but Hilton is easily the most important pass-catcher on this offense. Aside from Luck and Davis, he’s the most important player on the team. The Colts can’t count on their defense to hold down the Broncos offense, so they’ll have to anticipate a shootout, which would require them to target over 30 points per game (that’s how many points the Broncos averaged in the regular season) as a minimum.
No margin for error, strengths must be at their best
They can’t hit that total without a strong game from Hilton, who had less than 40 receiving yards in just one game last season. He’s one of the NFL’s most reliable playmakers, and the Broncos are one of the only teams that stand a chance against them. If he can get by Talib, Roby, and the safeties enough times, then the Colts have a real shot, because it will take big plays on his part in order to set off an upset.
The margin for error is incredibly slim, and he’ll have to forge a big day against the Broncos tough secondary in order to give this team the firepower it needs. Not only are they competing against an elite defense, but they are competing with a passing attack that was fourth in the NFL with 7.5 net yards per attempt.
Hilton showed us that he’s one of the best in the game, and they need his elite explosiveness on tap; the best way to beat the Broncos pass defense is to let a playmaking WR1 loose on them without having to go through Harris. He can’t afford to leave yards on the table or fail to have a big impact, because the Colts have to play their best game as a passing offense in order to win; they need their strengths to be at their peak.