Kansas City Chiefs, Justin Houston situation examined

We all know Detroit Lions star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is looking to break the bank in free agency, and this had its roots back when Suh fired his agent last offseason. His demands from the Lions are probably insane, but there’s a good chance he ends up being the highest-paid defensive player in history with several suitors likely lining up for one of the game’s best players. Suh isn’t the best impending free agent pass rusher, though, as that honor belongs to Kansas City Chiefs edge rusher Justin Houston, who is most likely the best player at his position.

When Houston recorded 11 sacks in 2013 and a copious amount of pressure, we knew that the young star would strike gold if he hit the 2015 (unrealistic) or 2016 (realistic) free agent market, but there was still some hope that the Chiefs would be able to lock up their best player on an elite defense after back-to-back double-digit sack seasons. Like Suh’s, Houston’s demands were far too rich for John Dorsey‘s palate, and neither side was able to agree to an extension before the season started.

It looks like the Chiefs made a mistake, as Houston was the second-best defensive player in the NFL this past season, as he has J.J. Watt to “thank” for not claiming that No. 1 spot. With 22 sacks, Houston nearly broke the single-season record, and he finished the season on a torrid pace with a sack in each of his past six games, including a four-sack performance in that crucial season finale against the San Diego Chargers.

My colleague Danny Zillmer wrote a piece today about how elite pass rushers are overrated in today’s NFL when it comes to a team’s overall success (i.e. ability to compete for the playoffs), but I disagree with this notion. In fact, I’d say that the Chiefs are a perfect example of how valuable an elite pass rush is, because their front seven was the calling card of their excellent 2013 defense that led them to the postseason. Their pass rush was responsible for their excellent pass defense this season, and it was the best part of a team that narrowly missed out on the playoffs.

Houston’s value to Chiefs

The Chiefs allowed the third-most rushing yards per carry (4.7), allowed 22 touchdowns through the air, and picked off just four passes. However, they also allowed just 18.3 points per game (third-best in the NFL), the second-least total passing yards, and the least net yards per pass attempt at 5.5.

Everything about those numbers screams “elite pass rush”. I mean, how is it that a pass defense is the best in the NFL on a per-play basis and leads the team to holding the opposition to less than 20 points per game, despite the fact that they almost never pick the ball off? The Chiefs biggest offseason needs are on the offensive line and at wide receiver, but they also need some additional help at corner due to some weak play from Marcus Cooper and Chris Owens; they have Sean Smith‘s shutdown play to thank for some of their numbers as a pass defense.

The Chiefs have a great interior pass rusher in Dontari Poe and another top edge rusher in Tamba Hali, but there’s no doubt that Houston is the star of this defense. Per Pro Football Focus, he put pressure on the quarterback 85 times, and nobody else came close to that mark. His ability to turn pressure into sacks is due to his explosiveness, as he rips away from offensive tackles with ease and can beat them with a variety of moves. He fights through double teams, can take tackles inside or outside, and has one of the most explosive first steps in the league.

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It’s rare to find a player with Houston’s physical skills, and it’s even more difficult to find someone who is consistently one of the league’s most effective and efficient pass rushers. He was obviously the best 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, but you could make the argument that Houston was also the best player at that position in 2013.

All-around impact

Pass rushing is definitely the most important job for a 3-4 OLB, but Houston can also impact the game as a run defender after recording 68 tackles this past season. In most cases, they weren’t garbage tackles either, as Houston used his athletic ability and speed to contain rushing plays. Not only was he the team’s best pass rusher, but he was probably their best run defender.

“Stops” are tackles that resulted in a positive play for the defense, so using “stops” takes garbage tackles out of the equation. 50 of this 68 tackles were “stops”, according to PFF, and his overall run stop% (percentage of stops per snaps against the run) was third among players at the position this past season. He isn’t an elite run defender, but he’s excellent in that regard and was one of the few bright spots in run defense for the Kansas City Chiefs defense. All-around ability is more important than ever in the NFL today, and Houston has shown that he can use his pass rushing skills to impact other phases of the game.

In all honesty, you could make the argument that Houston should be worth more money than Suh, especially since Houston is two years younger. Just 26, it’s scary how good Houston could be by the time he’s Suh’s age, especially since his week-to-week consistency is just ridiculous. He had just two games in 2014 without a single hit on the quarterback, and that’s an accomplishment that cannot be taken lightly.

Houston’s market value

The Chiefs should have locked up Houston, because his age, upside, and performances in 2012 and 2013 foreshadowed a monster contract year. Nobody could have expected Houston to have more than 20 sacks and establish himself as one of the game’s most dominant players at any position, and it’s also hard to blame the Chiefs without knowing exactly how much money Houston was asking for.

Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston (50) signals to the fans during the first half against the San Diego Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 19-7. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

There’s no doubt in my mind that Houston wants to be paid as much as Suh on the open market, and I’d say he deserves it. I’m not sure which player is better overall, but Houston might be the better value due to his age.

Of course, edge rushers don’t last as long as defensive tackles, but with the way contracts are structured in the NFL, Houston carries very little risk. Aside from five missed games in 2013, he hasn’t missed any time in his career and took over 1,000 snaps this past season.

It’s unclear if the Chiefs can agree to a deal with Houston, and I have a feeling that the elite OLB really wants to see what’s out there. He has a golden opportunity to make some massive coin in the future, so we’ll see if he ultimately decides to take advantage of it. His importance to the Chiefs cannot be understated, since he’s clearly the main reason why their defense was still a top-five unit.

No way he leaves Chiefs this year…or for a few more years

The problem for Houston is that there’s no way he hits the free agent market. None. The Chiefs understand his importance to this team and his importance to any future employer. For a player of his caliber, the franchise tag is completely worth it, since last year’s tag for linebackers was $11.455 million. Houston is worth that kind of money on a one-year deal for the Chiefs, who hold all the leverage here because of the tag.

Again, there’s realistically no chance of Houston hitting the free agent market this offseason, but there’s also no chance of him taking a deal with the Chiefs before the March 2nd tag deadline barring anything unexpected.

Even if Houston can’t hit the free agent market this year, the rest of the league will be watching, since he could easily be available next year (tag gets more expensive, the Chiefs still might not be able to extend him after tagging him). Plus, they could even release Tamba Hali to clear out cap, and Hali would be a big enough get for teams looking for a high-impact edge rusher (even though Hali isn’t young).

It’s an interesting and nuanced situation, and the Houston-Chiefs impasse has to be one of the biggest storylines of the offseason, even if the Chiefs are just about guaranteed to tag him if they can’t come to an agreement. It’s possible Houston could hit the free agent market in 2016, but it’s hard to see the Chiefs not making him a top offer. There’s always the chance he’s set on seeing what’s out there, but the Chiefs should have reasons for optimism. Getting rid of Hali shouldn’t be a big deal for them if it comes at the benefit of keeping Houston around, especially since first-round pick Dee Ford showed up well.

Ultimately, I think the Chiefs will find enough money to keep him, as Hali is a possible cut and Dwayne Bowe is an extremely likely cut. There’s room for the Chiefs to maneuver despite their cap issues, and the franchise tag would give them plenty of time to lock up the most valuable asset on their roster. I have a feeling Houston would prefer to stay in Kansas City, though I’m not sure he would give any hometown discounts.

Next: Where do the Chiefs rank among the best franchises in NFL history?

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