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Washington Redskins: Pierre Garcon’s Impact

By Kevin Parvizi

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In 2013, Washington Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon was clearly the team’s No. 1 option in the passing game, and Robert Griffin III and the offense predictably leaned on him in the passing game by sending him a league-high 181 targets. He unsurprisingly turned those targets into a league-leading 113 receptions, turning those catches into 1,346 receiving yards with five of those receptions going for touchdowns.

Garcon’s numbers fell of a cliff last season after the Redskins bumped down his targets after giving DeSean Jackson the guaranteed money that the Philadelphia Eagles were unwilling to. The former Indianapolis Colts 70-catch man just missed out on that threshold with 68 receptions for 752 receiving yards with less than 50 yards per game for the first time in his career.

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With Jackson stretching the field vertically better than any other receiver in an excellent first season in Washington, Garcon averaged 11.1 yards per reception after putting up 14.3 YPR and 11.9 YPR in his first two seasons with the team. His drop in numbers were mostly due to the fact that the Redskins were spreading the ball around more after adding Jackson and Andre Roberts, and then there’s the fact that Niles Paul busted out as a fully legit weapon upon his conversion to tight end.

It’s easy to look at Garcon’s subpar average of 47 receiving yards per game and state that he struggled, but the numbers show that he’s playing at the same level. Per Advanced Football Analytics, Garcon had a catch rate of 64.8%, up from his 62.1% catch rate in 2013. This somewhat offset the drop in yards per reception, as his 7.2 yards per target were right in line with the 7.4 yards per target he averaged in 2013.

There’s no doubt that Garcon’s rate stats were at their best in 2012 when RG3 set the league on fire as a rookie, and it’s unrealistic to expect another 9.5 yards per target from Garcon. The Redskins QB situation is as uncertain as ever, but what’s clear is that Garcon’s numbers are merely fluctuating as a result of QB play and his own usage in the offense.

According to Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Washington, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden would like Garcon to receive more targets in 2015. The interesting thing is that Garcon’s 105 targets still put him in the team lead over D-Jax, who had 95 targets, as Garcon’s superior ability to move the chains and get open in the intermediate game make him the “Z” and the guy who should lead the Redskins in targets.

But if Gruden wants to give Garcon more targets, it will come at the further expense of someone who averaged a whopping 12.3 yards per target last season. Throw in Jordan Reed, Paul, and Roberts, and there is no shortage of mouths to feed in the Redskins offense.

Complicating things further is the fact that Garcon has a $9.7 million cap hit on tap next season, and while he is one of the league’s better receivers and proved it in 2013 after an injury-plagued 2012 season, he’s not worth that kind of money. While the Washington Redskins are most likely interested in getting him to reduce that number, we still haven’t heard word of them asking Garcon to restructure his deal.

Although the Redskins have plenty of pass-catching depth, it’s good to see that it doesn’t seem like they are seriously considering cutting or trading Garcon. There’ll be no legitimate trade market for him, and cutting Garcon would remove them of their most consistent wide receiver. They already have an uncertain situation at quarterback, so it’s no shock to see that the Redskins have decided that keeping their No. 1 receiver by targets and skill-set is best.

Jackson showed in 2013 that he can be a true No. 1 receiver in this league, though the counter-argument is that the Eagles vertical offense may have done him some favors that are difficult to quantify. It does make sense, though, to state that Jackson’s whopping 12+ yards per target (the clear league-leading total last season) is a combination of his own fantastic playmaking ability and Garcon’s underrated ability to take pressure off of him.

It’s important to realize that Pierre Garcon had less targets, receptions, receiving yards, and yards per reception because of his modified role in the offense. Not only did the Redskins have to send some of his targets to Jackson in order to accommodate their important WR addition, but they also had to give Garcon more of an “off the ball” role as a wide receiver, meaning that he had to run routes to take pressure off of D-Jax and allow the former Eagle to wreak havoc downfield on opposing secondaries.

Dec 7, 2014; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon (88) runs with the ball against the St. Louis Rams at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

If the Redskins are serious about giving Garcon more targets, then nobody can blame them. Garcon has proven that he has both playmaking ability and chain-moving ability, as evidenced by his 14.4 YPR in 2012 and 113 receptions in 2013, respectively.

This is a guy who brings a lot to the table, and I think it’s realistic to expect him to net 110-120 targets next season. If that’s the case, then he could threaten for 900 receiving yards and five touchdowns again.

But Garcon’s biggest impact in the Redskins offense is his ability to play the intermediate game or win downfield with his sub-4.5 speed. Set to be 29 next season, Garcon is in the prime of his career, and while he is overpaid, he’s still an extremely valuable part of the offense.

If the Redskins asked him to put up big numbers, he’d do it. After all, he did just that in 2013. But the Redskins want him to be an advanced “Z” receiver who can help Jackson run loose.

That said, I think it’s fair to wonder if Gruden should use him more as an actual playmaker next season, and I wonder if Gruden’s comments mean that the team will try to get their money’s worth out of a player who could easily make an even higher impact on the stat sheet next season if asked.

For the Redskins, it’s all a balancing act, since they’ll have to choose how they’ll want to get all their weapons involved. But out of all their receivers, Garcon, when healthy, is the most capable of making a high impact in many different facets of the game.

Here are two stats from the Pro Football Focus that are worth keeping in mind when discussing Garcon’s usage last season. Firstly, Garcon dropped just two passes, which indicates some reliability. A more important stat, however, is his seventh-lowest yards per route run among 50 qualifiers. On the surface, you might say, “Seventh-worst? That’s inefficient, and we need to cut his $9.7 million you-know-what.”

The problem is that Garcon’s low yards per route run, since his 7.2 yards per target and 64.8% catch rate are perfectly fine, are the product of the low volume of targets he received in comparison to the number of routes he ran. Garcon ran the 20th-most routes of any receiver, and yet he was targeted the 38th-most times; I’m guessing that’s what Gruden is aiming to change next season, which, if true, means that Jackson is looking at a far less efficient year than 12+ YPT.

Next: Is RG3 poised to have a big year?

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