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San Francisco 49ers should avoid Hakeem Nicks

By Kevin Parvizi

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The San Francisco 49ers knew they needed to sign a deep threat this offseason, so they made Torrey Smith a big, important free agent signing who will once again form a partnership with Anquan Boldin after they won a Super Bowl together with the Baltimore Ravens…against the 49ers. Still, with Stevie Johnson gone and Michael Crabtree wading around on the free agent market, the 49ers need to add some wide receiver help.

According to ESPN’s Josina Anderson, Hakeem Nicks will travel to San Francisco for a workout, so it looks like they have identified him as their veteran free agent target. Trent Baalke and the Niners have left open the idea of Crabtree returning, as they’ve never slammed the door on his return despite the fact that the bridge between them seems to have been burned after Crabtree’s meager usage last season.

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That said, Crabtree has found no interest on the open market outside of some links to the Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers, with the former being his lone option at this stage following the Chargers decision to sign Johnson instead. While the Dolphins could use Crabtree, no deal has been agreed to, and that’s possibly because the former Texas Tech star is looking for a starting opportunity in an effort to rehab his once-high value.

Nicks has received even less interest in free agency following a prove-it year deal gone wrong with the Indianapolis Colts. Outside of a nice run near the end of the season that included a quality playoff performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, Nicks was horrible in 2014, as he looked hobbled, ineffective, and unable to shake off leg injuries stemming from his days with the New York Giants.

He was so bad, in fact, that, per Pro Football Focus, Andrew Luck had a 74.7 QB Rating when targeting him. That was better than Luck’s QB Rating when targeting Reggie Wayne, but it’s still something that Nicks shouldn’t be proud of. He was a liability  for the Colts offense last season, and that’s why not even Indianapolis wanted him back on the cheap.

After consistently averaging a high amount of yards per reception, Nicks was the exact opposite of a vertical threat with the Colts, putting up just 10.7 yards per reception despite being sent on routes greater than 15 yards 29% of the time (only T.Y. Hilton had a higher Deep% on the Colts), per Advanced Football Analytics.

The 10.7 YPR didn’t exactly help Hakeem Nicks efficiently grab what was thrown at him either, because he dropped four passes on just 69 targets and caught only 55.1% of everything thrown at him for a meager 5.9 yards per target. Every single stat shows that Nicks played poorly last season, and that’s not what the Colts envisioned when they took a flier on him.

While Crabtree is trying to latch on to a team via a prove-it deal in order to make some real money in 2016, Nicks is coming off of a season in which he missed a golden opportunity to vault his stock. He couldn’t take advantage of an excellent situation with Luck in Indy, even failing to capitalize on Wayne’s surprisingly abrupt struggles/decline that may have also been the result of multiple nagging injuries.

Nicks understands what nagging injuries can do to a player, because he was once one of the best wide receivers in the league before falling from 70-catch heights to 50-catch heights and inconsistency in 2012 and 2013. The scary thing is that for as disappointing as he was in his final season with the Giants, Nicks might have been worse on his prove-it contract in the high-powered Colts offense.

This is the kind of player the San Francisco 49ers need to avoid, because even though he has plenty of size and has upside if he regains his speed and  explosiveness, the fact of the matter is that he could easily be a massive bust, even on a one-year deal. The 49ers have two promising, young wideouts in Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington who deserve a shot, and all Nicks would do is take snaps away from them. Perhaps Nicks could be a real asset for the 49ers if he finds his footing, but, remember, he averaged just 5.9 yards per target last year. He was a flat-out liability who looked like the slowest 26-year-old WR in the league.

Look, there’s a reason why the 49ers are the first team to show interest in Nicks, he’s just been that awful these past few seasons, particularly in his “prove-it” debacle. Maybe the 49ers will know how to get the most out of him, but I doubt it. They couldn’t even get the most out of Crabtree.

Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (14) reacts against the Denver Broncos in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

And therein lies the issue with Nicks. Why the heck would you sign him over Crabtree? I’d rather take the disappointing receiver with less injury issues, a better 2014 season, and more interest around the league than someone who looked washed up and couldn’t even pull six yards per target with Luck at QB.

Since Crabtree isn’t a realistic option and Nicks just isn’t consistent enough for the WR-needy 49ers, this team is best off drafting a WR in this year’s deep class. After signing Smith and with Ellington and Patton, the 49ers can afford to wait until the middle rounds where they can find value (of course, this is what they have done in the past two drafts).

If they are going to sign a player who might not contribute anything meaningful in 2015, then they should at least sign a rookie who has more upside, a less extensive injury history, and would be under team-friendly control for more than just one year.

Nicks could make sense for other teams, but the 49ers should either go for a more consistent veteran or for a rookie with more upside who would be easier to mold.

Next: 49ers Crabtree's best option?

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