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Green Bay Packers NFL Draft strategy and analysis: Quarterback

By Keegan Matheson

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As the Green Bay Packers approach the 2015 NFL Draft later this month, a factor in prospect ranking that often goes undervalued is a team’s recent draft history. General manager Ted Thompson has been with the Green Bay Packers for 10 offseasons now, which provides a lengthy track record of selections that can be analyzed to suggest which type of player he prefers at each position.

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This eight part series will look at the frequency each position has been drafted, along with it’s current need and a sketch of what Ted Thompson’s prototype would be. For example, we’ll discover that Thompson has a certain affinity for 6’1″ wide receivers, or 6’4″ offensive tackles in the mid-to-late rounds.

The first position to go under the microscope, naturally, is quarterback. It will need to be a powerful microscope, too, as the Packers have drafted just five quarterbacks under Thompson, and just one since 2008.

Quarterback:  5 selections  –  Average of 0.5 selected per draft

  • 2005:  Aaron Rodgers, round 1 (24)   –   6’2″, 223 pounds
  • 2006:  Ingle Martin, round 5 (148)   –   6’2″, 220 pounds
  • 2008:  Brian Brohm, round 2 (56)   –   6’3″, 227 pounds
  • 2008:  Matt Flynn, round 7 (209)   –   6’2″, 228 pounds
  • 2012:  B.J. Coleman, round 7 (243)   –   6’3″, 233 pounds

The Prototype

Drawing a prototype from the quarterback data will not be as it will be with the wide receiver or offensive line groups, which reach the teens in quantity, but there is a clear trend in body type here.  Thompson’s quarterbacks have all come in at either 6’2″ or 6’3″, with just a 13 pound weight difference between the lightest and heaviest.  None of them have been particularly thick, big-bodied Ben Roethlisberger types, and the majority of them have been rather thin through the lower body.  This includes Aaron Rodgers.

Dec 21, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Rodgers clearly possesses the most functional mobility, entering the league with a 4.71 40-yard dash time, but none of the five will be confused for Michael Vick.  With such a thin set of data here, I feel it’s equally important to look at the quarterbacks that Green Bay has failed with.

Brian Brohm was considered by many in 2008 as true competition for Aaron Rodgers, with some even suggesting at the time that he was the better of the two prospects. Brohm came from a pro-style offense at Louisville while the offense Rodgers’ ran at Cal was not, so given the paths their careers took, I do not suspect Thompson to be particularly biased with systems. This is supported by the Green Bay Packers holding an official visit with quarterback Bryce Petty, who some question as a product of the generous Baylor system.  (It’s important to note that Petty fits the physical trend from above, at 6’3″ and 230 pounds).

Both Rodgers and Brohm entered the league with good, but not great, arm strength. It was not until Rodgers took over as the full time starter in Green Bay that his awe-inspiring arm talent was fully realized.  With Green Bay not needing an early pick at the position, I’ll suggest that we need to focus in more heavily on B.J. Coleman, Thompson’s most recent kick at the quarterback can.

Impact on 2015 NFL Draft

In the 2012 NFL Draft, just like the upcoming draft in Chicago, Green Bay had no pressing need at the position. Instead of selecting someone like Matt Flynn, who profiled as a weak-armed but high-intangibles backup, Thompson chose to take a raw physical project in Coleman.

Coleman was the biggest prospect drafted at the position by Thompson, and came to Green Bay with a very powerful arm that Mike McCarthy hoped to harness, but was unable to. Coleman now finds himself in the Arena Football League despite joining the Packers with an odd level of hope for a 7th round selection, so will this sway Thompson’s thinking again?

Scott Tolzien remains in place as a backup, and while he is better than many give him credit for, there is plenty of room for improvement behind Aaron Rodgers. Unless Thompson does choose to surprise with a 2nd or 3rd round selection at the position, or roll the dice again on a physical project like Southern Alabama’s Brandon Bridge, I can seem him attempting to hit on a high-floor prospect in the mid-to-late rounds.

Nov 13, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; East Carolina Pirates quarterback Shane Carden (5) looks to pass during the first half against Cincinnati Bearcats at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

East Carolina’s Shane Carden (6’2″, 220 pounds) fits the physical trend of Packers quarterbacks and comes with a high football I.Q. His deep ball tends to float, but he could develop into a gritty backup with a high completion percentage that allows him to get by. Georgia’s Hutson Mason (6’3″, 209 pounds) brings strong backup potential himself along with a much better deep ball, while Gary Nova of Rutgers (6’2″, 200 pounds) could enter the conversation should he reach undrafted free agency.

As much as I would prefer a high-upside project, both because this roster can afford to spend an asset on one, and because Mike McCarthy’s new structure of duty could allow him more time for mentoring, I feel it may be unlikely. The quarterbacks listed above, and those similar to them, are not picks that will push jersey sales, but this is produced by the luxury of having one of the game’s best players at quarterback.

The Green Bay Packers have not had a pure need at quarterback in over 20 years, which is still difficult to comprehend at times.  Aaron Rodgers is 32, however, and although it is not nearly time to find his replacement, it is always time to improve the backup quarterback position.

Next: Green Bay Packers: In need of running back depth

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