Miami Dolphins should pass on Wes Welker

The Miami Dolphins are busy looking for a veteran free agent to add to the talented duo of Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills, and they’ve recently brought in Michael Crabtree and Greg Jennings for workouts. Although Crabtree, who is the more ideal fit, rejected the Dolphins initial contract offer, all options still seem to be in play. There’s more than just those two on the open market, as the Dolphins have worked out another veteran wideout with plenty of past production, though he has to be seen as a longshot option.

According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, Wes Welker is visiting the organization today, so while a Jennings signing would feature his reunion with Joe Philbin, a Welker signing would feature a player reuniting with his old team.

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When it comes to Crabtree and Jennings, the logic is that both can be possession receivers and fill the “Z” role in three-wide sets with Stills as the “X” and Landry in the slot. While all of these letters and roles blur when the games are actually played and aren’t necessarily set in stone on a play-to-play basis, Welker wouldn’t be as ideal of a fit on paper. Not only does he have an extensive concussion history, but he’s also a slot-only receiver.

If Welker were signed, then he would only play in three-wide sets (assuming they sign him to be the No. 3 receiver, which we’ll get to later) and would have to be almost exclusively kept in the slot at this stage of his career. That would push Landry outside more often, which is completely fine, but it slightly decreases the Dolphins ability to mix-and-match looks, unless if they add a third receiver who can make Welker a fourth receiver where he can be the second slot guy.

It’s hard to tell exactly where Welker would fit in, especially since we don’t know if the Dolphins are interested in drafting receiver. This team understandably wants to snag a veteran wideout, but perhaps they would be willing to combine a rookie with a veteran in order to add some youth, explosiveness, and more depth to the position, in addition to the safety a veteran WR would bring to the table.

Welker offers absolutely no playmaking ability, and he’s the definition of a dink-and-dunk receiver at this stage. As per Advanced Football Analytics, he caught 76.6% of everything thrown at him (a career high, actually) but averaged just 9.5 yards per reception (a career low). Set to be 34 when the season starts, Welker is very much a declining player, but he’s still effective because of his innate ability to find space and move the chains.

That alone would give him value in the Dolphins offense, as Ryan Tannehill can always use more guys who can find space. The problem is that versatility at the wide receiver position is becoming an increasingly valuable trait, which is why someone like Landry or current Denver Broncos star Emmanuel Sanders is so important; they can win inside or outside.

Welker can’t do that anymore, so that would limit the Dolphins offense more so than it would if they signed Jennings or Crabtree. Of course, the caveat there is that both Crabtree and Jennings are better off on the outside, but I’d rather see one of those two in the slot than Welker on the outside.

There’s also the matter that Jennings, who averaged 12.6 yards per reception last season, and Crabtree, who used to average 13 yards per reception on a regular basis, are both better at winning at different levels of the field than Welker. Simply put, these guys bring more to the table, even though Welker is better at getting open. Even with age, he’s still capable of catching three-quarters of what is thrown at him, and that number might not even dip under 70% with Tannehill at QB instead of Peyton Manning (one reason is that Tannehill isn’t too shabby).

Signing Welker seems like a Plan C option for the Miami Dolphins, and I wonder if they would be better off tabling serious interest in him until after the draft. I believe the Dolphins interest in him is merely exploratory, because he would be a more realistic option if the Dolphins were spurned by Jennings and Crabtree. Otherwise, they’d be better off selecting their own WR of choice in the draft and dealing with the fact that they don’t have a veteran hand on the outside.

Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker (83) against the Indianapolis Colts in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Although Wes Welker is still a quality receiver in this league, I’d rather see him on a team as a No. 4 receiver, especially if that team is the Dolphins. He’s better off as a backup slot option to Landry, who can play outside and move into the slot to accommodate someone else.

As always, I’m extremely interested in seeing what the Dolphins draft strategy is, because I wonder if they are looking to add another rookie receiver after successfully spending a high pick on Landry last year. If so, do they want an explosive weapon or a versatile possession receiver?

I just don’t think Welker is a good enough option for the Dolphins as a No. 3 receiver, and it would be better for them to pass up on him.

Look, I understand they want a veteran receiver, but there’s a big difference between signing the 27-year-old Crabtree and the soon-to-be 34-year-old Welker. And even though Jennings is 31, he is less past his prime than Welker.

There wouldn’t be enough upside to signing Welker, and I’d rather see the Dolphins spend a pick on a No. 3 receiver before looking into him as an option.

They are better off taking Jennings or a rookie, because Welker is a Plan C-type option at best. He’s one of my favorite players and will always be, but there are better situations out there for both parties than a reunion.

Next: Are the Dolphins Crabtree's best option?

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