Chicago Bears Newcomer Profile: Eddie Royal

Last season, the Chicago Bears tried to sign a veteran No. 3 receiver after Marquess Wilson went down with a broken collarbone, but they found Santonio Holmes to be an unhelpful addition after they hyped him up a little bit before the season.

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This year, they’ve shipped out Brandon Marshall after a disappointing 2014 season as part of the Bears dysfunctional and incredibly disappointing offense, so they knew that they needed to sign a much better slot receiver to be the No. 3 guy behind true No. 1 wideout Alshon Jeffery and high-upside-but-unproven No. 2 Wilson. Their solution? Signing Eddie Royal early in the free agent period.

Nabbing a legitimate slot threat was highlighted as an important task for the Bears coming into the offseason, so Royal would have been a welcome addition even if Marshall were still a member of the team and not jettisoned as a way of saving cap. With a three-year, $15 million deal from the Bears that includes a whopping $10 million in guaranteed money, Royal was one of free agency’s most unsung winners, as he parlayed a career-year in a contract season into a nice payday.

We can talk about the financial implications all day long, but all the Bears care about is how he produces on the field. And, in that sense, Royal was an important addition, because they simply couldn’t afford to have Wilson as the only major option outside of Jeffery. The Bears could still use a receiver and could easily draft Kevin White or Amari Cooper with the seventh overall pick, but at least adding Royal makes it a far less pressing need than it would have been.

The former Denver Broncos returner caught a whopping 91 passes for 980 yards as a rookie, but he has never approached those numbers since then. In fact, his 62 receptions last year were the first time in which he hit the 60 mark since that one-hit wonder of a rookie campaign. Royal’s other numbers were quite good, too, as he put up 778 yards with an average of 12.5 yards per reception and seven touchdowns as a huge part of the Chargers spread-it-around offense.

Interestingly enough, per Pro Football Focus, Chargers superstar QB Philip Rivers, who might end up with a newcomer profile of his own before the offseason is through, had a 117.3 QB Rating when targeting the 5’10”, 185-pound Virginia Tech product. Royal, according to Advanced Football Analytics, caught 68.1% of everything thrown at him and had an excellent 8.5 yards per target just a year after putting up a 70% catch rate with 9.4 yards per target and eight touchdowns in 2013.

It’s important to note that all of Royal’s impressive numbers are indeed the product of a Chargers offense that is built around the intermediate passing game and an elite quarterback who is arguably the NFL’s best at working the intermediate game. Rivers’s poise, accuracy, and anticipation helped Royal turn into a quietly hyper-efficient slot receiver (per PFF, 86.2% of his routes came in the slot last season) over the past two seasons.

Additionally, Royal benefited greatly from the attention Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates received from opposing defensive backs, and that’s especially true last season. Allen’s numbers plummeted as defenses keyed in on the former standout rookie, and that gave Royal plenty of room to operate. However, you can’t ignore the gaudy rate stats Royal put up in 2013 either, so not all of his production was taken from Allen’s proverbial piece of the pie.

Dec 28, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback

Jay Cutler

(6) throws in the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Jay Cutler isn’t half the decision-maker Rivers is, and he’s also far less accurate or at adept at hitting those timing routes over the middle. That’s why we should expect Eddie Royal to have less production and a lower catch rate in 2015, because his stats will reflect the offense around him.

The decline in statistical production will cause some to point and say, “Ha! The Bears should have never added this misfit in the first place!” but that sort of retroactive judgment is far too simplistic. Look, the Bears know that Royal most likely won’t have a near-70% catch rate, and that’s because the quarterback throwing it to him isn’t Rivers, who led the league with a 69.5% completion percentage in 2013.

Cutler is at his best when he’s given some leeway to use his arm strength, but it will be interesting to see if the Chicago Bears new regime decides to reign him in like the previous coaching staff did in 2014. Perhaps the “reigning in” helped lead to the struggles of the offense, but perhaps the new coaching staff believes it will help. Whatever the case, Cutler completed 66.0% of his passes last season, so Royal is a better fit in the slot than some think.

And remember, that 91-reception season Royal had as a rookie came in Cutler’s only Pro Bowl season, which means that the Bears seem to be onto something here. Although Royal averaged 12.5 and 13.4 yards per receptions in each of the past two seasons, he averaged just 10.8 yards per reception (but with five touchdowns) as a rookie.

Nov 16, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers wide receiver Eddie Royal (11) smiles as he leaves the field after the Chargers beat the Oakland Raiders 13-6 at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Thanks to his shiftiness and long speed, Royal is a more versatile weapon than some think, and while it is realistic to expect a drop in numbers since he’ll be lower on the priority list in Chicago and will have a less accurate quarterback, there’s plenty of reason to believe Royal will be an important player in the offense (even if the team is in a position to draft White or Cooper).

The Bears needed someone who can catch over 65% of everything thrown at him, move the chains, and make things happen after the catch.

Royal should bring some solid ability to the table for the Bears, and while he isn’t a star talent or a game-changer, it’s hard to ignore the production he’s had over the past two seasons, including 15 touchdowns, in San Diego ever since Rivers’s renaissance as a quarterback.

I think Royal is a very interesting addition to a team that already has plenty of compelling storylines surrounding them. The Bears overpaid for Royal, but they’ll be getting a quality receiver to the table who bring something much different to the table for this offense (and ease the pressure on Jeffery and Wilson).

Although drafting a top rookie wideout is a possibility for the Bears, it isn’t a likely one at this point, so it’s fair to say that Royal is in line for a major role in this offense.

Next: What should the Bears do at No.7?

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