Buffalo Bills: LeSean McCoy and 300

The Buffalo Bills added three of the NFL’s most dynamic weapons on the offensive side of the ball in feature back LeSean McCoy, versatile tight end Charles Clay, and the explosive Percy Harvin, who was once one of the league’s scariest playmaking threats before injuries and a high price tag caused him to fall out of three different organizations (the Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, and New York Jets).

With one of Matt Cassel, E.J. Manuel, or even Tyrod Taylor set to start at quarterback for the Bills, it’s clear that McCoy will have the biggest 2015 role of those three acquisitions, especially since second-year pro Sammy Watkins is locked in as the team’s top option in the passing game.

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Veteran backup running back Fred Jackson recently stated, via WGR 550’s Sal Capaccio, that the Bills would like to give Shady at least 300 caries next season, “I don’t know exactly what my role is going to be. They say that they want Shady (McCoy) to get 300-plus carries next year. So that’s a guy you’re feeding the ball all the time. So I’ll be ready when my number is called.”

Jackson isn’t the only backup on the Bills who will clamor for touches behind McCoy, as the team drafted former Florida State standout Karlos Williams in the fifth round to go with Anthony Dixon and another former Eagle in Bryce Brown. It’s a crowded backfield, and Dixon, Brown, and Jackson are all fighting for a roster spot in this situation. Although F-Jax is a well-rounded fan favorite, he’s also 34, so he isn’t guaranteed to stick around on the final roster.

In fact, the only guarantee in the Bills backfield at this point in the offseason is the notion that McCoy will be the team’s clear lead back and workhorse, though the thought that he could receive over 300 carries is enough to make me cringe. Don’t get me wrong, I think McCoy is a fantastic player, as he forced 40 missed tackles in the running game last year, per Pro Football Focus, with 18 runs of at least 15 yards (tied for second in the league last year).

The problem is that McCoy has carried the ball exactly 314 times in the past two seasons as a workhorse back under Chip Kelly, and that’s not accounting for 80 additional touches off of receptions in those two campaigns. It’s unclear how big of a role Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman will give to McCoy in the passing game, but he has a back who has caught the ball at least 40 times in five of his six seasons (Shady’s 28 receptions last year were a clear anomaly).

If we were just going off of talent alone, then it is worth it to give LeSean McCoy the ball 300 times on the ground in a single season, especially since the Bills will be a run-based offense under Roman and Rex Ryan. Cassel and Manuel project as game manager QBs this upcoming season, so the Bills will figure to lean heavily on the running game.

But the Bills have to keep their eye out on McCoy’s long-term prospects, because they are paying him with the long haul in mind. Although he’s “just” 26, the former Pittsburgh standout has accrued plenty of tread on his tires in six seasons with at least 195 touches in every campaign.

According to Spotrac, McCoy will have dead money on his contract in every season of his deal until he hits the free agent market in 2020, as he negotiated a five-year, $40 million deal with $13.125 million in guaranteed money after joining the team via a trade from the Eagles.

While the Buffalo Bills would love to make good on all of that money by using McCoy as often as possible, they can’t afford to run him into the ground too early. Since McCoy will actually be 27 when the season starts, he’ll be over 30 when his deal with the Bills ends; they need to tread carefully here with a player who relies on his speed and elite agility.

Although John Miller and Richie Incognito are significant and much-needed upgrades at both guard spots, LeSean McCoy will be running behind a worse offensive line than the ones he benefited from in Philly. At the beginning of the 2014 season when the Eagles line was beat-up due to several major injuries, we all saw just how much McCoy, who needs space to be at his best, suffered without those blockers. He bounced-back to a 4.2 yards per carry average once those guys returned, but it’s clear that he’s a player who needs to have his carries optimized.

The Bills have depth at the position. Even if they think Williams is too much of a project to use as a rookie (they might have eyes on him as a big contributor in the later years of McCoy’s five-year contract), they still have two of the Dixon, Brown, and Jackson trio to use. So, uh, why not use them?

May 26, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) during the organized team activities at the ADPRO Sports Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

In theory, it sounds great to give the ball to McCoy 300+ times in carries alone and watch him go to work, but how efficient will he be in a less favorable set-up on offenses? Defenses will know what to expect, and even if the Bills offensive line does improve as much as we hope, it’s not like all the pieces are there yet.

Although the Bills could take on McCoy’s $2.625 million cap hit in 2019, it’s hard to see them taking on $5.25 million in dead money in 2018 if McCoy’s decline takes place sooner than that due to over-eagerness on the Bills part to feed him as often as possible.

Again, they have depth at the position, and although none of those guys are nearly as good as McCoy, Dixon did play well last year and Brown, who joins Dixon as the most likely RBs to be cut, and Jackson aren’t bad either (and there’s a chance that Williams is an immediate success, even if it doesn’t seem likely).

Ideally, I’d like to see McCoy’s carried managed to some extent, but it’s more likely that Ryan and the coaching staff will feel pressure to ride him with an uncertain QB situation.

That’s a shame, because Shady could become a burden on the Bills if they can’t find a stable QB situation in the future, because who’s to say that they won’t continue to wear down McCoy as the feature back if Manuel fails and they draft another hopeful franchise QB.

Next: Bills: Who will start at QB?

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