Atlanta Falcons: Tevin Coleman is the guy

I’ll preface this post with the disclaimer that I wasn’t high on Tevin Coleman in the pre-draft process, and yet even I can appreciate what he should be able to bring to the table as a rookie in the Atlanta Falcons offense. Kyle Shanahan, whose track record with rushing attacks is excellent, called for Coleman to be the team’s rookie rusher taken in the third round of the draft for a reason, so it would be a bit whacky to say that the former Indiana Hoosier isn’t a good fit for what Shanahan wants to do.

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Last year, the Falcons took the well-rounded Devonta Freeman in the fourth round of the draft, and the team has been giving him preferential treatment this offseason despite the fact that there has been a big coaching staff shift, in addition to a shift in the philosophy of the running game.

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D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution passed along an updated version of the Falcons depth chart last week, and it looks like Freeman will head into training camp as the starter after the Falcons treated him like the No. 1 guy during OTAs.

But there’s a reason why Ledbetter projected Coleman as the leader of the Falcons running back committee back in May, and it has to do with the fact that Coleman is the more dangerous player. You can say what you want about his lack of missed tackles and wiggle at Indiana, and while he doesn’t force many missed tackles and could stand to have better lateral agility, he seems to have all the traits Shanahan should be looking for (since, you know, he was presumably cool with drafting Coleman).

Firstly, there’s the speed, and everyone who has heard the name “Tevin Coleman” knows that he can immediately be one of the league’s premier home-run threats at the position. This is a guy who runs a forty time at around 4.4 and is a devastating one-cut runner who quickly accelerates through holes in no-nonsense style.

Of course, the issues with Coleman are that he goes down at first contact too easily, and his rushing totals at IU were boosted by those big runs with far too many stuffs scattered about. The biggest red flag with Coleman when looking at his college production is the fact that he benefited from an awful lot of untouched rushes, and his lack of patience could come to bite him in the NFL when those easy big gains are much harder to come by.

Although Freeman isn’t one to force many missed tackles, he was still quite effective and wasn’t afraid of running it up the gut. All of his concerns regard his ability to translate to the NFL without that ability to “create for himself”, though supporters are quick to argue that showing good vision and one-cutting ability are just as fruitful.

I’d like to look at Shanahan’s most effective rusher last season, talented UDFA Isaiah Crowell, as an example of what we could see from Coleman as a rookie in the Falcons offense. The Cleveland Browns rushing attack mostly consistent of rookie rushers Crowell and Terrance West with the former averaging more yards per carry (4.1 to 3.9).

Crowell finished his first season in the league with just 1.87 yards after first contact per carry and nine missed tackles forced on the ground, per Pro Football Focus, so he was one of the worst players in the league after first contact and at forcing missed tackles. Basically, he was the definition of a guy who couldn’t create for himself, and he received plenty of criticism for his lack of patience and vision.

However, he did lead the team with 4.1 yards per carry, and it’s because Crowell was one of the NFL’s premier playmakers on the ground. With ten runs of 15+ yards last year, Crowell had the fifth-highest percentage of such big plays on the ground last season, overcoming the fact that he generally didn’t make guys miss. What made Crowell somewhat effective last season, beyond his raw talent and explosiveness, was the fact that he’s a pretty darn good one-cut rusher.

So you can see the strength/weakness similarities between Coleman and Crowell, and perhaps that gives you a clearer picture of why Shanahan wanted to take the Hoosier in the third round of the draft.

But it might also make you worry, because Crowell is a bit of a love him or hate him back like Coleman. It’s important to remember that Coleman is much faster than Crowell, who ran a respectable 4.57 forty, and might have better vision. In any case, he was the better and more productive prospect coming out of college, though the difference obviously isn’t as big as it normally is between a third round prospect and an undrafted prospect due to Crowell’s unique circumstances.

Still, Coleman managed to come off the board in the third round of a stacked running back class, though that also means his expectations are understandably greater, particularly on an offense that includes Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.

Freeman is excellent on passing downs and has enough ability to be a No. 2 back in this league, but he’s ideally nothing more than a committee back. I like Freeman, but he doesn’t have much upside since he’s neither fast nor strong.

May 26, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman (26) on the field during OTA at Falcons Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

That said, Freeman is the much safer back due to his work on third downs and the fact that he’s solid enough in all facets. He’s a reason why the Atlanta Falcons will run a committee next season, with another reason being the fact that Shanahan was a committee-friendly guy last season in Cleveland.

While everything is subject to change, Coleman is the guy you’d want for fantasy purposes due to his upside. With Freeman partnering up with him, Coleman should have carries optimized for him and won’t face too many difficult defensive fronts with Ryan and Jones hooking up frequently to keep defenses honest.

I think Coleman is “the guy” for the Falcons because of the profile he fits, as, on the surface, he’s the kind of running back Shanahan wants for a high-powered offense. The Falcons look set to spread defenses out next season, and that will also help play into Coleman’s skills as a home-run threat.

It’s important to note that when I call him “the guy”, I’m talking about him as the leader of a committee, because he also fits the profile of a back who is better off as part of a committee unless/until he proves he’s able to be a true feature back. With a third-round pedigree on his hands, that’s probably what the Falcons envision him as in the future.

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