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15 Bold Predictions: No 3.: San Francisco 49ers plummet

By Ryan Disdier

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I understand last year I made the prediction that the Dallas Cowboys would finish below .500. This year the prediction stays the same, just with a different team, as I expect the San Fransisco 49ers to fall into mediocrity.

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The 49ers began to decline toward the end of last year. Expect the slide to continue in 2015. Out of all the teams in the NFL, no team had a more tumultuous offseason than the 49ers.

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Here’s a quick laundry list of who the Niners lost: head coach Jim Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Greg Roman, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, running back Frank Gore, wide receiver Michael Crabtree, offensive lineman Mike Iupati and cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver.

The 49ers also lost their best defensive player Patrick Willis, Pro-Bowl tackle Justin Smith and future All-Pro inside linebacker Chris Borland when all three retired, respectively.

Last year those players combined for 1,804 yards, eight touchdowns, 283 tackles, six sacks and 12 interceptions This team is barely recognizable from last year’s.

The signings San Francisco made — Jerome Simpson, Reggie Bush and Torrey Smith, among others — pale in comparison to what the team has lost.

Entering the first season of the Jim Tomsula Era, the 49ers are already playing catch-up in the surprisingly powerful NFC West.

Starting on the offensive side of the ball, Colin Kaepernick isn’t a top-10 NFL quarterback. His mechanics are clunky, but he’s been able to succeed, so to speak.

His passing should be improved after an offseason spent under the tutelage of Kurt Warner, but it probably won’t be enough to save the Niners.

In the backfield is now former Saint, Dolphin and Lion, Reggie Bush. While he brings leadership to the table, he also brings uncertainty and a sub par amount of production at this juncture in his career.

The trio of Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Jerome Simpson isn’t the worst in the league, but it’s far from the best.

“A rookie head coach, a dismantled defense and an average quarterback. It just sounds like a recipe for mediocrity.”

Defensively, NaVorro Bowman should finally be healthy after missing all of 2014, but that’s one of the few bright spots on a now-depleted unit.

Aldon Smith, a pass-rushing phenom, remains on the team, but he’s tough to rely on. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, San Francisco would have cut Smith had he not restructured his deal.

Smith is a big question mark, but the Niners’ defensive backfield poses more questions.

The team lost its starting corners, and the unit is now made up of a myriad of journeymen players who have little-to-no starting experience.

Antoine Bethea, a Pro Bowler last year, is still back in the secondary, but it’s almost a guarantee that the unit will suffer.

San Francisco also has a very tough schedule, and that might be what ultimately proves to be too much for this team to overcome.

The team’s first 11 games are against Minnesota, at Pittsburgh, at Arizona, against Green Bay, at New York Giants, against Baltimore and Seattle, at St. Louis, against Atlanta, at Seattle and against Arizona.

While it’s probably a bit crazy to suggest the Niners start the season 0-11, it’s very possible they enter week 13 with a record of 3-8 or 2-9. The only game on the schedule that the 49ers should certainly win is their week 14 game against the Browns.

That 11-game stretch is arguably the toughest in the entire league. You could make a serious case for any of those aforementioned teams making the postseason this year.

From a less-complicated standpoint, the Niners went 8-8 last year. They’ve gotten worse and in no way have improved, so by that, it makes sense to suggest the 49ers will finish the season sub-.500.

Sep 21, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver

Larry Fitzgerald

(11) carries the ball as San Francisco 49ers strong safety Antoine Bethea (41) and strong safety

Craig Dahl

(43) defend during the second half at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

So why won’t the 49ers prove doubters wrong like the Cowboys did last year?

Simply because the players and coaches they lost were too good and played too significant of roles to simply replace.

A rookie head coach, a dismantled defense and an average quarterback. It just sounds like a recipe for mediocrity.

Eric Mangini is now the defensive coordinator, but this is likely too great of a mess for the “Mangenius” to fix.

Arik Armstead was taken in the first round, but he’s no Justin Smith. Desmond Bishop was brought in, but he’s neither Patrick Willis nor Chris Borland.

This is a defense that appears broken, and one that is in danger of slipping out of top-10 caliber. This is a defense a bit similar to Tampa Bay’s last year. Sure, the unit had stars (Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, Michael Johnson), but the secondary was too big a of a liability.

The 49ers also play in what’s probably the toughest division in the NFC. Every team has their quarterback situation figured out, and every team should have a very good defense.

Seattle is Seattle, just a better offensive version of last year’s squad. Arizona, with Carson Palmer back under center, remains as a playoff team. And St. Louis now has Nick Foles, Todd Gurley and the best defensive line in the NFL.

Essentially, the Seahawks and Rams made big improvements, while the Cardinals lost players who can be replaced.

Now, if the 49ers had a true, elite quarterback — they’re probably still kicking themselves for not taking Aaron Rodgers back in 2005 — they would probably be okay.

But can Colin Kaepernick, if necessary, really take this team on his shoulders and help lead them to the postseason? No, probably not.

He’s not a bad quarterback, but as I already said in my QB power rankings, he’s not in the same class as Rodgers, Brady, the Mannings and even guys like Matthew Stafford and Andy Dalton.

I would venture to say worst-case scenario for this team would be 3-13 season, ending with a top-5 pick in the 2016 draft. I would say best-case scenario is 8-8.

Realistically, though, I expect the Niners to finish around the 5-11, 6-10 mark.

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