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Indianapolis Colts overpaid for T.Y. Hilton, but that’s OK

By Kevin Parvizi

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Despite drafting wide receivers with their first selections in both the 2014 and 2015 NFL Drafts, the Indianapolis Colts viewed extending No. 1 wide receiver T.Y. Hilton as a major priority this offseason. After watching unquestionable top-ten wideouts Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas set the market with $14 million contracts from their respective playoff teams, the Colts knew they would have to give Drew Rosenhaus and Hilton a big contract, even with better receivers (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green) still looking to get their paydays.

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Pro Football Talk reported that Hilton’s deal is worth $65 million over five years with about $39 million in guaranteed money, which means that he isn’t far off from the Thomas and Bryant deals. Thomas will make $70 million with $43.5 million in guaranteed money over five years, while Bryant will make $70 million with $45 million in guarantees.

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Hilton was one of the NFL’s most efficient wide receivers last season, and while he isn’t a “complete” wide receiver who excels in every facet of the game, he deserved to be paid like a No. 1 receiver. There’s no doubt that he is worth more money than Jeremy Maclin, who earned $11 million per year with just $22.5 million in guaranteed money from the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency. Hilton is a class above Maclin among wide receivers in the league right now, but he’s also a class below Thomas and Bryant despite getting a contract that is close to them in value.

That said, Hilton is also two years younger than Thomas and one year younger than Bryant, so that’s one possible reason for him getting a deal that is in their realm. He’s also a better playmaker than those two, as he averaged an insane 16.4 yards per reception as a No. 1 target who has now put up two straight 82-catch seasons. With 19 touchdowns in three seasons, Hilton’s ability to take it to the house is well-known, but the basic stat that stands out to me the most is his 89.7 receiving yards per game.

Andrew Luck is due for a future extension that will make him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL on an annual basis, so the Hilton move obviously doesn’t do them any favors on that front. It will likely force them to let one of Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener walk in the future, and my gut feeling is that Fleener’s playmaking ability could be sacrificed for Allen’s more well-rounded play at the tight end position.

Whatever the case, the cost of extending Hilton is steep, and you can easily argue that it wasn’t necessary. Even though Hilton is an exceptional receiver and is unquestionably nestled in as a top-15 player at the position, he should have made even less money in comparison to the Thomas and Bryant deals. Firstly, he isn’t as good as those two, and the numbers over the past three seasons show it. Secondly, he isn’t as important to either of them, because the Colts have an even bigger cache of weapons around Luck (particularly young weapons).

Taking Andre Johnson out of the equation due to age, the Colts have the aforementioned tight end duo and two promising young WRs in Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett. Moncrief looked more polished than expected as a third-round rookie last year, and the Colts made him their second pick in the draft in 2014 despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball. This year, they made the same move to add an impact WR in the draft, but instead took an even more individually gifted wideout in Dorsett, who has received comparisons to Hilton and was viewed by some analysts as his eventual replacement.

It was clear from the start of the Colts negotiations with T.Y. Hilton, however, that they never wanted to actually replace him with Dorsett one-for-one. I don’t entirely blame them, because the passing game is the Colts calling card as a team, and there’s no guarantee that Dorsett and Moncrief would work out as a 1-2 punch after Johnson retires and if Hilton would have left. Dorsett has immense talent and Moncrief is a high-ceiling player who had an efficient rookie year, but you can understand why the Colts feel more comfortable about a Hilton-Dorsett-Moncrief trio long-term.

That said, two things hurt the Indianapolis Colts here, and the first is their differing quarterback situation. Unlike Tony Romo and Peyton Manning, Luck is a young quarterback who is only going to get better, therefore the Colts championship window isn’t closing. This means that the need to sacrifice long-term financial well-being for short-term cohesiveness and star power isn’t nearly as pronounced. The Broncos also made a risky decision when they extended Demaryius for $70 million over five years, but they had no choice; they can’t afford to take any risks with Peyton so close to the end.

And unlike Romo and Peyton, Luck hasn’t signed his contract yet (neither has Anthony Castonzo, but we’ll get to that later). That’s another long-term consideration the Colts had to weigh in, and hopefully they like their trade-off here.

The second thing that hurts Indianapolis is the wide receiver bubble. Demaryius and Bryant set the market, and Hilton may have just priced out elite wide receivers with Brown, Green, and Jones (my second, sixth, and fourth-best WRs in the league right now) set to make big money. Hilton’s deal is about to become a overpayment on Colts part, simply because the bubble is bound to burst. With so much star talent at the wide receiver position coming into the league (like, you know, Moncrief and Dorsett), teams will no longer be willing to pay $13 million per year (and more) for receivers.

Oct 9, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) makes a reception during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts have built the core of their offense through the draft, and acquiring young, cheap talent is how you start a contender. Making the tough decisions is how you keep a team contending, which is exactly the kind of model the New England Patriots used. With an elite QB, you can afford to be more stingy with how you pay star wide receivers, and the Colts should have taken a tougher stance here.

I understand how risky it would have been for the Colts to walk into 2016 without Hilton under contract, so my argument here is not that the Colts made the wrong decision here. My argument is that they overpaid for him (even if by only a couple of million per season) in both total value and guaranteed money, simply because of their situation and the future of the WR market.

That said, I can see why the Colts made the move here regardless of the money, since it isn’t about winning or losing financially with this contract; it’s about winning championships. They feel they have a player in Hilton who can help elevate them to a Super Bowl, and, since I rank him as a top ten receiver, I won’t argue that point.

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