Aaron Rodgers: How much will Jordy Nelson injury hurt QB?

How will the Green Bay Packers survive Jordy Nelson’s season-ending ACL tear?

Aaron Rodgers.

That’s the only answer needed to the burning question posed by everyone following confirmation that Nelson would indeed be missed for the entire 2015 regular season, and it’s an excellent answer. I mean, Rodgers’s 2014 season was arguably the greatest in history by a quarterback, and he would have shattered records across the board if he weren’t so good. That sounds counter-intuitive, but because he was so good at carving up defenses at the beginning of games, the Packers simply had no reason to try as hard on offense as games wore on.

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For as good as Rodgers is and for as promising as second-year wide receiver Davante Adams looks, Nelson’s injury will have a profound impact on both the Packers offense and Rodgers. They don’t have a single player on the roster who can win downfield like Nelson, who is an unquestioned top-ten receiver in this league and a prototypical “X” wideout. This is a guy who had 98 receptions for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and the only part of the field he doesn’t dominate in are the short areas (but the Packers have Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, and now Ty Montgomery for that).

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As it’s become clear to many, Nelson isn’t a product of Rodgers’s success, but rather an elite receiver whose numbers and skills are augmented by the best quarterback in the NFL. The Packers offense is also a product of Nelson’s success, because he draws so much attention from defenses with his ability to beat top corners and break open a game with a big play. For example, even though Darrelle Revis and the New England Patriots largely neutralized him last season, Nelson was still able to score a long TD pass that helped swing the game in the Packers direction.

According to Pro Football Focus, Nelson tied with Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, who is arguably the best wideout in the NFL right now, for the fifth-highest catch rate on throws of at least 20 yards downfield. Only Dez Bryant had more touchdown receptions on such throws, meaning that more than half of Nelson’s TDs (7 of 13) came on deep passes from Rodgers.

There might not be a more innate QB-WR combo in the NFL than the Nelson-Rodgers connection, and both players are also deadly on play-action passes. Rodgers, of course, had a league-best 11:1 TD:INT ratio on passes of at least 20 yards, and only Matt Ryan had a higher PFF accuracy percentage on such passes. So, basically, Rodgers is the best deep passer in the game, but Nelson, as the best vertical threat on the Packers with three straight seasons of over 15 yards per reception, played a huge role in that.

Despite all of the big plays Nelson and Rodgers were able to hook up on, just one interception transpired out of all of Nelson’s 146 targets last season. That’s simply outstanding, and while that speaks more to Rodgers’s ball placement and decision-making, it takes great understanding from a receiver and an ability to consistently generate separation on the outside. I mean, it’s not easy for a receiver who makes his game on the outside and averages 15.5 YPR to avoid being on the end of more than just one pick, so Nelson deserves to be commended for that.

Where Aaron Rodgers will see the most regression this upcoming season without Nelson is big plays, but the second-most regression in his numbers could be seen in the interceptions department. He somehow managed to throw just five interceptions last year despite also tossing 38 touchdowns, and while Adams and Richard Rodgers can pick up the TD slack in the red zone, can Rodgers trust them as much as Nelson? How well will they be able to connect?

Nelson is such an exceptional receiver and so difficult to replace that if the Packers had someone like, say, Philip Rivers, then the Packers simply wouldn’t be Super Bowl contenders anymore. I mean, aside from the fact that- while Rivers is a great QB- the drop-off between Rodgers and Rivers would prevent the Pack from being Super Bowl contenders in the first place, the only reason why we say this team can survive Nelson’s injury is because Rodgers is so good at making huge plays, avoiding mistakes, and getting the most out of the players around him.

Rodgers has never thrown more than eight interceptions in the past four seasons and has averaged under eight yards per attempt just once, so the smart money is on him to avoid getting above and below those numbers, respectively, this season. But we could see more interceptions and lower yards per attempt (less big plays) from Rodgers this upcoming season, meaning that if he can produce numbers similar to even his 2012 numbers (his worst of any healthy season in the last four years), then he should be the MVP.

For as promising as Adams looked last season, he isn’t nearly as fast or as explosive as Nelson; he can’t replace him as a vertical guy. Montgomery is unproven and while he’s electric with the ball in his hands, he could be more of a gadget guy than a receiver as a rookie. Jeff Janis has the Nelson-like measurables, but his inability to crack the “X” gig is of huge concern; it shows that he isn’t on the same page as Rodgers or his teammates, which means that we can’t count on him to bring much to the table until proven otherwise.

There’s no doubt that the Packers have intriguing receivers behind Cobb who can help replace some of Nelson’s production, especially with a guy like Rodgers magnifying their strengths greatly. But the Packers have nobody who can replace Nelson from a physical or mental standpoint at the position, which is why Rodgers’s statistical output could be more like his still-excellent 2012 numbers rather than his legendary 2011 or 2014 totals.

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