Indianapolis Colts: T.Y. Hilton poised for big Week 4

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton had no issues breaking loose against the Tennessee Titans pass defense last week, bouncing back from a subdued, injury-plagued Week 2 game against the elite New York Jets defense to post four receptions for 94 yards in Week 3. Hilton is undoubtedly one of the best wide receivers in the NFL right now, and he’s locked in as the Colts No. 1 playmaking threat. In fact, you could argue that he’s been their only true big-play threat right now, and his opportunities will only continue to rise.

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Sitting at 74.7 receiving yards per game at the moment, Hilton’s average would be more robust if it weren’t for his Week 1 knee injury. Now that he’s essentially fully recovered, Hilton figures to earn more than just four receptions (his totals in each of the past two games) from Andrew Luck, and that should start with this week’s game against the rival Jacksonville Jaguars.

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The Colts won’t replicate the New England Patriots 51-point outburst against the Jaguars in Week 3, but they’ll figure to have plenty of success through the air against a team that is allowing 7.75 yards per target to wide receivers on the season. Football Outsiders has them as the NFL’s fifth-worst pass defense in terms of DVOA, and it’s pretty easy to see what the problem is in pass coverage for the Jags.

Davon House looks like a steal of a free agent signing, and Dwayne Gratz and Aaron Colvin are worthy youngsters at the position. However, the Jaguars have key holes in coverage at safety, and Hilton can exploit those if he’s able to break loose downfield. Considering that he’s averaging 15.1 yards per reception and needed just four catches to burn up the Titans for 94 yards, I like his chances at breaking a big play or two against the Jags.

With a whopping 7.8 net yards per attempt allowed through the air and 26.7 points per game surrendered, the Colts defense is putting an awful lot of pressure on Luck to move the ball through the air. While that means more interceptions (Luck already has seven on the season), it also leaves more room for passing attempts and yardage, which will benefit Hilton more than anybody else on the roster.

The Jaguars pass defense isn’t the worst in the NFL, but it’s a unit that can be exploited, especially by a top receiver like Hilton. Since the Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, and Patriots have been the Jags three opponents to this point in the season, it’s safe to say that they haven’t faced a No. 1 receiver with the dynamic playmaking ability that a guy like Hilton brings to the table. Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are both fantastic receivers, but they are possession-types who will kill you by racking up catches in the slot; Hilton, as we saw last week, can destroy you on just four completed passes.

Hilton, who has caught 82 passes in back-to-back seasons, is the type of star receiver you bet on in favorable matchups, and that’s the case in Week 4 against the Jaguars. It’s important to remember that he averaged 89.7 yards per game last season and had seven touchdowns, so he’s on track for bigger numbers as the season wears on; his total of zero touchdowns through three weeks won’t last for much longer.

Although the Jaguars physical corners could give someone pause, Hilton, who memorably shredded Richard Sherman and the Seattle Seahawks early in the 2013 season, is the type of receiver who can beat those types of defensive backs. His physicality and long speed are two big reasons why he, as a 5’9″ receiver with just 180 pounds on him, can excel as an outside weapon.

As of right now, Donte Moncrief has proven to be the Indianapolis Colts only other legitimate option in the passing attack, as he and Hilton are the only players on the team with at least 15 receptions or 200 receiving yards through the first three games. Given how poorly Andre Johnson has played and the fact that Dwayne Allen isn’t practicing (he missed last week’s game), this isn’t going to change anytime soon, specifically not in Week 4.

T.Y. Hilton has been one of the Colts few bright spots in their 1-2 start, and he’s easily their best player on offense right now with Luck struggling. Without his big plays last week, the Colts would be 0-3 right now, and I’m sure they realize that their main goal will be to get the ball into his hands at all costs. Teams have an extremely difficult time countering his explosiveness, and he’ll continue to be someone Luck leans on.

At least on paper, the Jaguars look like another type of back-weak AFC South secondary that Hilton can take advantage of using his speed and ball-tracking ability. Another important reason for expecting Hilton to go off in Week 3 is the simple fact that the Colts need to use him in a way that will allow him to explode on the stat sheet, simply because he’s their best shot at this moment in time. He’s averaging 8.11 yards per target on a team whose other top three receivers are putting up 7.69 (Moncrief) and 2.83 (no, that’s not a typo for Johnson) yards per target.

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