St. Louis Rams: Can Todd Gurley carry team vs. Bengals?

By Kevin Parvizi | Nov 24, 2015

After setting the NFL on fire with four performances that yielded over 120 rushing yards in his first four starts, St. Louis Rams rookie star Todd Gurley is in need of a “bounce-back” game, which couldn’t come at a better time for this team.

Losers of three straight games, the St. Louis Rams know that they’ve been a mild disappointment this season at 4-6, but there’s still time to turn things around. Dropping a game to a Baltimore Ravens team that lost both Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett during the contest doesn’t exactly reflect well on Jeff Fisher‘s team, but it’s hard to win without adequate quarterback play, good blocking, or a strong set of pass-catchers.

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When the Rams win, they do it on the strength of their defense and running game, which is, of course, the way this team was built to succeed in 2015. First-round pick Todd Gurley started the season on a record pace with four straight games of over 120 yards, and he’s, naturally, cooled down since.

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The Rams can’t count on Gurley to average more than six yards per carry on 20 or so attempts, but they can hope that he’ll snap out of his streak of three straight games with less than four yards per carry. It’s no wonder why the Rams haven’t won a game in that span, with one of their losses including an embarrassing blowout at the hands of the Chicago Bears.

This week, the Rams will face one of the toughest opponents on their entire 2015 schedule, and you can safely ignore the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals have lost back-to-back games. Although they had an ugly performance in Week 10 on Monday Night Football against the Houston Texans, you can hardly blame them for losing by three points in a back-and-forth game to an excellent Arizona Cardinals team.

Now more than ever, the Rams need Gurley to show off his elite physical tools against an elite opponent, and he’s one of only two players (the other being Tavon Austin) whom the Rams can count upon on offense. Of those two skill position players, only Gurley can carry a team to victory, since it’s much easier for a workhorse back with Marshawn Lynch-like abilities to do this.

So far this season, the Bengals have fielded one of the NFL’s better pass defense, but they’ve also allowed a rather hefty 4.5 yards per carry. However, that number shouldn’t fool you, because the Bengals have only allowed rushing totals of 116, 69, 82, and 82 since the bye.

Of course, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the ones who put up 116 and could have ran for more if they used their backs more often, whereas it’s hard to get fired up about a defense shutting down the likes of Alfred Blue and Isaiah Crowell (two of the worst backs this season).

Basically, while the Bengals run defense isn’t terrible, this is a matchup that an elite back like Gurley should be favored in. His teammates on offense haven’t done him any favors recently, but, again, this is about the Rams hoping he can carry the team on his back to a victory again.

I find Gurley’s impact in the passing game to be intriguing, particularly in the scope of this game. The Bengals linebackers are built to stop the run, as pretty much all of them are slow-footed and struggle in coverage. While Gurley isn’t known for being a beastly pass-catcher out of the backfield, he did build up a streak of four straight games with three receptions before Case Keenum didn’t hit him up with a reception once in Week 11 against the Ravens.

Nov 22, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) runs with the ball during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens won 16-13. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Based on the fact that the Bengals allow 51.4 receiving yards per game to opposing backs, I wonder if that’s due for a change this Sunday. In fact, you could argue that the Rams need to get the ball into Gurley’s hands as often as possible, including as a safety valve option out of the backfield.

Not only was he an underrated pass-catcher in college who showed off a good pair of mitts when asked, but he’s also caught 16 of his 19 targets here in his rookie season thus far.

The Rams fed Gurley a whopping 25 times on the ground last week, making it the third time this season he’s had at least 25 touches in a single game. They are clearly doing whatever they can to play the offense through him, so the goal will be to have him break out this Sunday.

The offensive line needs to do his job, but, ultimately, it all comes down to hoping that he can use his strength and uncanny agility to make something happen by beating first contact and heading off to the races.

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Even if he has a big day, it might not be enough, but the Rams probably trust their defense after watching the Texans have some success against the Cincinnati offense.

According to Sporting Charts, the Bengals have allowed the third-fewest runs of at least ten yards this season, whereas Gurley has 18 such plays in just eight games. Something has to give on Sunday, and I wonder if Gurley, who has four 10+ yard runs in his last three games (meaning he had 14 in his first four, if you throw out his six-carry debut against Pittsburgh), will be able to dominate again.

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