NFL Predictions Week 12: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

The byes are gone and points are getting thrown around in week 12. Its like they want you to win. These are your Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for NFL Predictions Week 12. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Check out more of the brothers in Seesaw Sports Debate on BuzzChomp. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

It was nice to get on the board with a 2-0 week in Week 11. I grabbed two teams who I simply felt were better than their respective opponents. It’s a novel idea, I know. But I didn’t worry about the point spreads because both contests were pick’ems. This week, I’m back to scrounging for value, and I’m taking two road underdogs because I like to torture myself.

Minnesota Vikings +2.5 at Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers +5 at Seattle Seahawks

Last week, I was all in on the Green Bay Packers to take down the Vikings in Minnesota. That is exactly what happened, and it resulted in a pleasant consequence. Now the Vikings are the team who is under-appreciated and underrated.

One loss doesn’t ruin a season. Losing to Green Bay certainly shouldn’t. So why are the Vikings getting nearly a field goal against the hapless and self-sabotaging Atlanta Falcons?

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Atlanta is now 6-4 on the year after another blown victory. It is 4-6 against the spread, having lost six straight games in that respect. Atlanta has been favored in seven consecutive contests, outright winning just two of those. Can’t the betting public see that the Falcons are no longer a playoff-caliber team? Add in Devonta Freeman‘s concussion and the super value Minnesota has been delivering all year (8-2 ATS, 4-1 in road contests), and any points on the Vikings’ side are a boon.

For the Pittsburgh vs. Seattle game, it’s a similar story with slightly different characters. Seattle is being overvalued here (although not as much as Atlanta), and Pittsburgh is being under-appreciated.

Even with a blowout victory over San Francisco, the Seahawks are just 3-6-1 this season against the spread. They aren’t even dominant at home anymore, losing three of five there ATS. For Pittsburgh, it is one of the premiere teams in the league with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. That hasn’t happened often this season, but Ben is ready to go in this game.

Meanwhile, Pitt has been thriving as an underdog all year, accumulating a 4-1-1 record in such situations. Pittsburgh is comfortably an AFC playoff team. Seattle is definitely not comfortably an NFC playoff team. So why the extra two points to the home Hawks?

Nov 15, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver

(84) celebrates with fans after scoring a fifty-six yard touchdown against the Cleveland Browns during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 30-9. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

DAN:

You showed poise and determination in your two straight-up picks last week. I applaud you for nailing them both, while I suffered at the hands of the NFL roller coaster. Although backing the Chiefs was a smart move, continuing to roll with the Raiders burned me for the final time. Oakland, you’re dead to me.

Chicago Bears +9 at Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans -3 vs New Orleans Saints

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Take a look at the Chicago Bears last four games and salivate over the nine points they are getting on the road in Green Bay. The Bears lost by a field goal to the Vikings, took down the Chargers and Rams, and lost by two points to the Broncos. Those two losses came against top competition, both by three points or less. In fact, Chicago has not lost by more than three points since September, and when the Bears met the Packers in week one they fell by only eight points. Why is Chicago now getting nine points in week 12? So you can win money, of course.

The Packers certainly looked solid in their victory over the Vikings last week. But I’m not ready to ignore the three straight losses they endured prior. I think these teams are much closer than Vegas is giving credit for. A Packers victory is likely, but not by more than a touchdown. Roll with the Bears and eat up those nine points.

My second pick is almost laughable. The Houston Texans defense has finally rounded into form, and their offense isn’t looking half bad either. You know what unit has been so bad that Rob Ryan got fired? It’s the New Orleans defense. I don’t care who has stepped in to coach the defense, they are not shutting down the Texans.

Next: 2016 Super Bowl Predictions - Packers Win It

Houston may not score many points, but they will get more than enough against a Saints unit full of holes. The key here is that the Texans defense has been lights out. Although New Orleans has been racking up points, they haven’t faced J.J. Watt as of yet. Expect Houston to quell the Saints offense, and do just enough to win by a touchdown. Giving three points is nothing.

Dan Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also Lead Editor, Staff Writer, and Featured Vlogger at BuzzChomp, and a New York Jets Analyst for Pro Football Spot. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook, Google+, or Instagram.

Todd Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also a Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp, a Featured Columnist at College Sports Madness, and an Analyst for Tipster Labs, among others. Follow him on Twitter.