Philadelphia Eagles: Sam Bradford Deal Puts Franchise in Mediocre State
By Dan Thomas
The great Tony Robbins believes the key to real happiness in life is progress. If that’s true, Philadelphia Eagles fans are going to be experiencing some discomfort over the next two seasons.
A 28-year old, injury-prone, average NFL quarterback is not what the Philadelphia Eagles need in the short-term or the long-term. At the very least, they didn’t need to pay $18 million a year to get one. Yet, Eagles management believed otherwise.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Eagles signed Sam Bradford to a two-year $36 million deal including $22 million guaranteed with another $4 million through incentives.
Related Story: 5 Bargain Free Agents the Steelers should consider
The Eagles overpaid for Bradford and now he is locked in as their starting quarterback.
For the next two seasons, Eagles fans should be expecting to finish anywhere between 5-11 and 8-8 with no playoff appearances.
Why should this be the expectation? Just look at Bradford’s career.
2015 season
Since entering the league in 2010 as the #1 overall pick, Bradford has not performed like a guy who was expected to carry a franchise.
That’s putting it nicely.
Over the last six years, Bradford has compiled a record of 25-37-1 and has never reached the post-season. In fact, he’s never won more than seven games in a single season.
The biggest issue with Bradford has been his inability to stay healthy. Since 2010, he has missed 33 regular season games out of a possible 96. Believe it or not, Bradford’s injury-prone status gave some Eagles fans a reason for optimism heading into 2015.
More from Philadelphia Eagles
- Philadelphia Eagles just won the offseason NFL uniform competition
- 2023 NFL Predictions: Every Divisional Winner for the 2023 Season
- Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts keeps things in perspective
- 2023 NFL Season: Way too early picks for division winners
- Biggest Strength and Weakness for each NFC East team in 2023
The thought among many was if Bradford could stay healthy, he would be able to show why he was a Heisman Trophy winner back in 2008 and the #1 overall pick in 2010. His pinpoint accuracy, pocket awareness and tremendous decision making would be on display for everyone to finally see in 2015. That was the thought.
Than the 2015 season actually happened.
Bradford went 7-7 in 14 games while the Eagles finished 7-9. In those 14 games he threw 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
According to The Football Database, out of 22 quarterbacks who started at least 13 games in 2015, Bradford tied for 12th in terms of winning percentage along with Matt Ryan.
His 19 touchdown passes in 2015 tied for 22nd most along with Brian Hoyer and Marcus Mariota.
His 14 interceptions tied for the 14th most in the NFL along with Eli Manning (who threw 35 touchdown passes).
According to Sporting Charts, out of 30 quarterbacks who threw at least 10 touchdown passes in 2015, Bradford’s 1.4 TD to INT relation tied for 25th along with Blaine Gabbert.
In fairness to Bradford, let’s recognized the Eagles offense did drop a lot of passes during the season. Sporting Charts shows the Eagles led the NFL in drops (37) and drop percentage (6.0). With that said, let’s not use that one statistic as a crutch to explain Bradford’s average performance in 2015.
Last year, the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots and New York Jets finished 2-7 respectively in terms of dropped passes. The difference between the Eagles (1st in drops) and the Jets (7th in drops) was 10 passes. That comes out to just over an extra 1/2 dropped pass by the Eagles offense per game.
Yet, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all threw for more yards than Bradford. They all threw for more touchdowns than Bradford. They also all finished with a higher QB rating than Bradford.
Should 10 less dropped passes by the Jets mean Bradford should be outperformed by Ryan Fitzpatrick in all three of these areas? Does six less dropped passes by the Raiders mean Derek Carr should have exceeded Bradford in all three of these categories?
For a great or good quarterback the answer would be, “no”. For an average quarterback, well….
Something to think about: In 2014, the Indianapolis Colts led the NFL in drops (40) and drop percentage (6.2). Both of these numbers are higher than what Bradford and the Eagles experienced in 2015. Yet, Andrew Luck still managed to throw for 4,761 yards, 40 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and finished with a QB rating of 96.5. The Colts finished 11-5 and the won the AFC South that year.
Career Numbers
While Bradford’s numbers weren’t terrible, they weren’t great either. That’s not just in terms of his play last year but his play over his entire NFL career.
In 63 career games, Bradford is averaging 235 passing yards, 1.24 touchdown passes, .83 interceptions and .59 fumbles per game.
With that career game average, that is equivalent to a 3,760 passing yards, 19.84 touchdown passes, 13.28 interceptions and 9.44 fumbles over the course of a 16-game season.
Bradford’s 2015 season? 3,725 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 10 fumbles.
Although Bradford’s 16-game average and 2015 season numbers look almost identical, it’s not a fair comparison because Bradford only played 14 games in 2015. He missed two games due to injury.
Then again, maybe that comparison is a more accurate depiction because it should be assumed that Bradford will at some point, miss game(s) with some sort of injury.
Injuries
After winning the Heisman in 2008, Bradford missed the majority of his junior year in 2009 with a shoulder injury.
In 2011, Bradford missed six games with an ankle injury.
In 2013, Bradford missed nine games with a torn left ACL.
In 2014, Bradford missed 16 games with a torn left ACL.
In 2015, Bradford missed two games with a shoulder and head injury.
The last time Bradford was healthy for an entire season (2012), Bryce Brown led the Eagles in rushing touchdowns.
Although Bradford has a better chance finishing a season with 16 starts than Bryce Brown is of ever leading a team in rushing touchdowns, neither are a good bet.
The Arguments For Bradford
Argument #1: He’s never had a consistent offense.
If you count Chip Kelly as the Eagles offensive coordinator in 2015, Bradford has gone through four different offensive coordinators in his first six years in the NFL. With that kind of revolving door, it’s hard for Bradford to grasp an offense in it’s entirety and build off of it from season to season.
Response: That’s fair.
Argument #2: He’s never had any real weapons to throw to.
In St. Louis, Bradford has never had qualities receivers to throw the ball to. No real playmakers. He’s had to throw to guys like Brandon Gibson, Brandon Lloyd, Chris Givens and Austin Pettis.
In his one year in Philadelphia, he had to throw to guys like Jordan Matthews, Josh Huff and Nelson Agholor. As mentioned before, Bradford’s “weapons” led the league in dropped passes.
Response: That’s fair.
So now the question is, “What’s going to change in 2016?”
One thing that will change in 2016 will be Bradford’s offensive coordinator. So now Bradford will basically be moving on to his fifth offensive coordinator in seven years.
One thing that won’t change are his weapons. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones aren’t coming to the Eagles. Maybe an above-average guy or two will be brought in but Bradford will mainly be throwing to the same players that he threw to last season.
So where’s the upside for the Eagles with Bradford as the starter next season?
Argument #3: If you don’t pay him that money, another team will.
Response: Then let another team pay him that money.
The Situation
Now the Eagles have given $18 million a year and $22 million guaranteed to a guy who has missed over a third of his NFL career because he’s constantly injured.
A player who has shown to be an average NFL quarterback (at best) and hasn’t shown that he is capable of elevating the players around him.
A quarterback who has never won more than seven games in any season.
A guy who is still getting paid due to his college accomplishments, draft pedigree and “ceiling” because there is no way a NFL franchise gives Bradford that type of money based on his on the field performance.
Still some hope
The Eagles organization would have been better off signing a stopgap quarterback who knows the new offensive system like Chase Daniel for half of the money they gave Bradford. At the same time, they should draft a quarterback like Paxton Lynch or Jared Goff in the 1st round of April’s NFL Draft and start the process of developing him.
Would Lynch or any other rookie QB be the answer for the Eagles franchise? Who knows. Maybe or maybe not. Only time would tell but one point is clear: Bradford is not the solution if the Eagles wants to compete for a Super Bowl now or later.
Would 2016 be a good or competitive season for the Eagles with that strategy? Probably not. Would the Eagles win more games with Bradford than Daniel? It’s probable, but at the end of the day, what’s the real difference between 5-11 and 7-9?
More nfl spin zone: Los Angeles Rams wisely use the Franchise Tag
By drafting a quarterback and attempting to develop him, a plan is in place. There is hope. That hope is that this unknown quarterback could be a franchise quarterback if he is brought along properly and coached up.
Now the questions becomes: Will the Eagles draft a quarterback in April that they can realistically develop into a starter?
If so, the Eagles organization is wisely looking towards the future.
Then again, if that’s the plan, what was the point in overpaying for Bradford?