Jacksonville Jaguars: Just how prominent will Julius Thomas be?
Before Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns blossomed into two of the NFL’s best wide receivers in the 2015 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars had their eyes on $46 million man Julius Thomas as their top target.
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Injuries have always been a concern for Julius Thomas, which is why giving him $24 million in guaranteed money seemed like a bit of a gamble on the part of the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, when healthy, Thomas established himself as one of the league’s premier mis-matches, earning praise from legendary passer Peyton Manning ever since the 2013 offseason.
Thomas had 12 touchdowns in each of his two seasons as a starter for the Denver Broncos, and he managed to average over 50 yards per game in 2013 as a part of a crowded group of pass-catchers that boasted Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker.
Last season, Thomas appeared in 12 games, as he missed the season’s first four contests with a hand injury he suffered in the offseason. It was far from a dream year for Thomas, who was a sub-10.0 YPR possession receiver in an offense that called on Robinson and Hurns to make the big plays.
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As such, Thomas’s sub-60.0% catch rate (Blake Bortles isn’t known for his accuracy just yet) looked even less ideal, but he became a bigger factor in the offense ever since his 116-yard outburst against the San Diego Chargers.
It takes time for a player to find their groove, and Thomas’s offseason injury prevented him from getting in valuable reps with Bortles before the former UCF standout’s breakout season.
Hopefully the story is different this offseason, and Bortles said earlier that he and Thomas sat down a few times in order to get on the same page. In the article above, ESPN.com’s Michael DiRocco noted that Thomas and Bortles seemed to develop a real rapport in OTAs, though that evidently fizzled following the tight end’s injury.
Unsurprisingly, it has been all roses again in this year’s OTAs, with the Florida Times Union’s Hays Carlyon quipping that the Bortles-Thomas connection looks “unstoppable” thus far. Bortles himself noted that Thomas “never drops a ball”, and even though this talk is typical of the hyperbole that occurs in soft June practices, it is a point for discussion nonetheless.
All of the kind words thrown Thomas’s way are well and good, just as they are believable. Remember, Manning praised Thomas before he put himself on the map with a jaw-dropping performance against the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener.
Both Robinson and Hurns went over 1,000 yards last season, and I find it hard to believe that they will decrease their target totals of 151 and 105, respectively. Perhaps they could move some of Robinson’s targets over to Thomas, but do they really want to minimize the number of opportunities an elite wide receiver gets?
The Jaguars can take targets from odds-and-ends receivers like Bryan Walters, but will it be enough? After all, Marqise Lee has been garnering plaudits of his own this summer. And then there’s second-year possession receiver Rashad Greene, who is lining up as the Jaguars first-team slot man.
Beyond that, the Jaguars leading rusher last season was rookie T.J. Yeldon, who had 182 attempts, and they brought in Chris Ivory, a power back coming off of a career year. Ivory is no stranger to low workloads (2015 was his first year with 200 attempts), but rumor has it that the former New York Jet could start over Yeldon. How many more rushing plays will Jacksonville call in 2016?
It shouldn’t be too hard to give Thomas more than the 80 targets he earned last season, and it is extremely easy to take the “over” on 5.69 yards per target for Thomas, which was his average in his first season with the Jags.
Fantasy owners are taking Thomas behind Zach Ertz and Jimmy Graham but ahead of Jason Witten and Antonio Gates. All of those players, other than the injured Graham, received more targets than Thomas in 2015, and Gates actually played in one fewer game (11).
Thomas’s total of 80 targets is partially due to him being injured, so if we use his average of 6.7 targets per game, 110 targets is an achievable total for him in 2016. Sadly, health is not a guarantee for Thomas, who has seen his appearances trail from 14 to 13 to 12 over the past three years.
If we assume Thomas misses a couple of game, it might be difficult for him to hit 100 targets. So while he will play a key role in the offense as a possession receiver for Bortles, fantasy owners or those expecting Hurns-like numbers will likely be disappointed.
I doubt the team or Jaguars fans care about this in the least. Instead, they care about how Thomas will open up things for the rest of the passing attack, make key plays to help Bortles out on third downs, aid the young quarterback’s progression as a promising third-year passer who has consistently grown since being drafted, and at least threaten for double-digit receiving scores.
The Jaguars ponied up for Thomas last year, and he remains the fourth highest-paid tight end in the NFL annually at $9.2 million. Nobody should be concerned with return on investment here, because as long as he moves the chains, beasts in the red zone, and helps the team’s real investment (Bortles), it’s a win.
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Based on what we’ve heard and what we’ve seen from Thomas in the past, everything is tracking well. I wouldn’t expect him to be as important to this team as either Robinson or Hurns, especially since the running game will become more important for Jacksonville this year behind the tag team of Ivory and Yeldon. A healthy Thomas should flirt with triple-digit targets, though his career-high sits at 90.