Jacksonville Jaguars: More good news for Julius Thomas?
Explosive offenses are more popular than ever with Vines circulating Twitter and easily-digested touchdown grabs racking up shares on Facebook, and you can expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to seize plenty of that attention again in 2016.
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Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon. The Jacksonville Jaguars offense comes in duos, but is a non-obvious duo a pairing of Julius Thomas and Rashad Greene underneath?
Thomas has been praised almost incessantly this offseason, but it isn’t just fans and beat writers expressing high hopes for the $46 million man.
Everyone seems to be sleeping on Julius Thomas #Jaguars
— Matt Williamson (@WilliamsonNFL) July 1, 2016
Earlier this offseason, it looked like former second-round wide receiver Marqise Lee would join Thomas as a hyped-up member of the offense, but it appears things have cooled off. In fact, any sort of production out of him is reportedly seen as “a bonus” by the Jaguars.
This probably goes without saying, but @ryanohalloran fully expects Rashad Greene to be the Jaguars No. 3/slot WR.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 15, 2016
Then there’s that.
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As a rookie, Rashad Greene had a weird stat line, because he averaged just 4.9 yards per reception. When you see that number, you kind of squint at it and wonder if someone messed up what they entered into the database, because 4.9 is the type of figure you expect to see for a running back’s yards per carry average.
But no, Greene took being a possession receiver to the next level by turning 19 receptions into 93 yards.
Back in college, Greene was a beast for Florida State, so much so that Jameis Winston would sometimes force throws into his path. That’s how highly he respected Greene’s game, and the wide receiver would finish his final season with 99 receptions for over 1,300 yards.
Size and speed concerns caused the smooth, tough, versatile, elusive, and productive receiver to fall into the fifth round, and nobody’s batted an eye since.
Greene starting in the slot is no surprise, but could the fact that the No. 3 job is his to lose be a good thing for Thomas?
First of all, the pessimism that Florida Times Union beat writer Ryan O’Halloran expressed on Lee is noteworthy, because that’s one less mouth for Blake Bortles to feed. Robinson and Hurns should remain target hogs in the Jaguars offense, but Thomas is the clear No. 3 target.
When trying to tear down Thomas’s fantasy stock, many claim that he’s an overrated player, but I don’t really buy that. He is injury prone, but how many athletic tight ends who are red-zone mis-matches with two 12-TD seasons on their resume are overrated?
The real issue with Thomas’s fantasy value lies in the limited number of targets in the Jaguars offense, so the fact that Greene will be lining up in three-wide sets should be seen as a boost to his value.
Though Greene shouldn’t be viewed as a pushover, he isn’t as physically gifted as Lee. Additionally, if Bortles has two short options to look to as safety valves, is he really going to pick Greene over Thomas? And although Greene had 16 touchdowns in his final two college football seasons and two last year, is he a threat to play in red zone situations or take end zone targets away from the 6’5″ Thomas?
Lee’s inconsistency and Greene’s subsequent status as the “fully” expected No. 3 receiver is a modest boost to Thomas’s stock. The Jaguars paid big money to Thomas for a reason, and they appear poised to let him show his value off in a league where tight ends are becoming increasingly more expensive. Don’t believe me? Just ask Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.
With 44 receptions and a catch rate of 64.7%, Thomas was the Jaguars primary target on shorter routes when healthy, and he will be critical in helping Bortles boost his QB Rating, perhaps mostly by lowering his INT%.
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Bortles had a 72.8 QB Rating on third downs, and Thomas had a team-high 66.7% catch rate in these situations. Basically, Thomas caught two-thirds of the passes thrown at him by a QB who completed just half of his passes on third downs. Greene? He had two catches on nine third down targets. Of course, Greene’s numbers will be better in his second season (especially as his experience and sample size increase), but Thomas is the real key here.
Lee falling behind? That’s a bump in value for the star tight end.