2016 NFL Predictions: AFC West Over/Under Win Totals

The AFC West is one of the toughest divisions, but not every team will live up to the preseason hype. Which Vegas line is bogus? Who’s over/under win total is destined to fail? 2016 NFL Predictions.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

We are wrapping up the AFC in our trek through the league, examining all the divisional over/unders for win totals. Not all gambling lines are created equal, and some of these preseason win totals are pretty wonky. We discuss the misses. This is our last division of this conference, the AFC West.

The West is ordered as follows according to Bovada:

More from NFL Spin Zone

Kansas City Chiefs 9.5
Denver Broncos 9
Oakland Raiders 8.5
San Diego Chargers 7

Kansas City having a higher line than Denver is surprising to me, not because I don’t think it’s true, but because I didn’t expect the public to push a line that way. Oakland is rightfully garnering huge buzz this preseason, yet I didn’t expect it to be this close to Denver either. However, I am down on Denver! So this is all pretty logical, though I didn’t expect the over/unders to agree with my sentiment.

As we discussed during our pick of the toughest division in football, this West division is pretty talented from top to bottom. Even the Chargers are not someone to trifle with. And that’s who I can’t get off of. San Diego has just as good of a chance of reaching .500 as Oakland. I know they went 4-12 last year, but there were clear reasons for that.

The Chargers lost their best play-maker in Keenan Allen. He should be back healthy. They lost pretty much their entire offensive line multiple times. That was also addressed through the draft and with the addition of Matt Slauson. Plus, giving guys like D.J. Fluker another season at a new position can only help the line’s growth.

Also, having Cleveland on the docket instead of Baltimore, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati? Yes, please. This is a tough spot overall, because I think all four of these West teams will be pretty good to average. But I don’t foresee a scenario where I would take San Diego Under 7. That is simply too low.

Nov 15, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston (50) during the second half against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Chiefs won 29-13. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

Just as you feel strongly about the Chargers making a true bounce back, I think the Raiders are still a season away from matching the teams atop their division. I like Oakland this season, but they aren’t on the same defensive level as Denver or Kansas City. If we learned anything from last season, it’s that defense still wins and wins a lot. Offense can only carry a team so far.

I can accept ten wins out of the Chiefs and nine or more from Denver. Slotting San Diego around seven victories is acceptable, although you make solid points. But for the Oakland Raiders to win nine games, they will truly have to take a large step forward. I think their line heavily favorites the Under at this point. Is Oakland ready to be the second-best team in this highly competitive division? I say no.

Oakland’s line should be at 7.5 wins. Picking the over means the team is at or above .500 on the season. I would take that bet. If they stumble, it will mean another six or seven win season for this developing football team. This is a more appropriate line for the Raiders, who have not crossed the 8-8 mark since they made the Super Bowl in 2002. That is fourteen years for those of us counting at home.

More NFL: Ranking the Top 10 Quarterbacks in 2016

The Raiders went 3-13 and 7-9 with Derek Carr under center. I understand the hype, but it’s still premature, making Oakland’s line the worst of the AFC West teams.

Home/AFC West