NFL DFS Picks: Best Lineup for Divisional Playoffs

The stars fell flat in the Wild Card round, so which NFL DFS lineup is best for the Divisional Playoffs? Only one game is a true mismatch.

In the Wild Card round, all four home favorites demolished the competition. However, in fantasy circles, the “favorites” did not come through. In our game of picking lineups for the first round of the postseason, lineup number one crushed lineup number two, essentially doubling it up in points.

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The reason number two faltered was because its biggest names (and most expensive players) came up small. Ben Roethlisberger did not have a big game. Jay Ajayi and Amari Cooper gave nothing. And Jordy Nelson got hurt, missing most of his contest. Meanwhile, lineup one performed exceedingly well. The lone exception was another big name: Odell Beckham Jr. Who will come through this weekend, though? Your NFL DFS picks for the Divisional Round.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem discuss NFL Daily Fantasy in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Let’s give it a go again for Round 2 and see if the results are similar. Four more games are taking place in the Divisional Playoffs. Below are two different daily fantasy lineups for the weekend’s games and I want you to pick your favorite.

I will be using Yahoo daily fantasy values because the pricing model coordinates more logically with real auction drafts. We are playing with a $200 budget.

Lineup the First

QB – Tom Brady – $37
RB – Tevin Coleman – $17
RB – Spencer Ware – $19
WR – Randall Cobb – $22
WR – DeAndre Hopkins – $19
WR – Cole Beasley – $16
TE – Martellus Bennett – $15
FLEX – LeGarrette Blount – $31
DEF – New England Patriots – $20

There is no viable cheap option at quarterback this round. The only cheap player even playing at the position is Brock Osweiler, but no thank you. I am going with Tom Brady here and keeping a New England-centric lineup construction. The Patriots have far and away the easiest matchup this week.

Around the Pats guys, we have some good value at running back, including the surprisingly cheap Spencer Ware (though he’s been shaky and banged-up in recent weeks). We can’t afford any star power here. There is also great value to find at wide receiver. Randall Cobb seems like a no-brainer start with Jordy Nelson questionable—though perhaps everyone else thinks this way as well.

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Lineup the Second

QB – Russell Wilson – $33
RB – Ezekiel Elliott – $35
RB – Dion Lewis – $18
WR – Antonio Brown – $40
WR – Mohamed Sanu – $13
WR – Will Fuller – $11
TE – Jimmy Graham – $18
FLEX – Michael Floyd – $12
DEF – New England Patriots – $20

Russell Wilson is a great option against the Atlanta defense. The rest of this lineup hinges on some star power, mixed in with a few lottery tickets. Antonio Brown and Zeke Elliott are some of the best options at their respective positions. Fuller, Sanu and Floyd? Not so much, but they have high upside for such cheap prices. We are still forced to rely on the Patriots for a few spots. There is no other defensive matchup I like this week. Everyone is either a bad defense or facing a great offense, so we stick with NE there.

Dan Salem:

This week is tricky because New England certainly has the best matchup, but it scares the hell out of me to go all-in with one game. Our first lineup does nearly this, yet I can’t help but love it.

Tom Brady is my pick for the biggest fantasy week among quarterbacks. He just feels ready to unleash. This makes both Bennett and Blount excellent complimentary plays. If the Seahawks key on Atlanta’s passing game, which they will, then Coleman is also due for a big game. I’m just hesitant to bet so hard against Houston and not enough on Kansas City. While our NFC games feel close, I do not believe that Pittsburgh can stop Travis Kelce or the Chiefs running game.

Lineup two finds more balance, but I believe I learned my lesson in the Wild Card round. Star names get neutralized first in the playoffs, meaning a lineup of mostly stars is not going to win you the week. Wilson may succeed at quarterback and Elliott might dominate at running back. Same with Antonio Brown, although a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger brings it into question.

But the likelihood of all three star players dominating is low. At least one of their opponents will neutralize their impact and that crushes your fantasy lineup. I love Jimmy Graham this week as well as the Michael Floyd sleeper pick, but I don’t love this lineup.

Divisional Round: Best Picks Against the Spread

Ultimately I favor lineup one for the Divisional Round. That being said, I would personally spend fewer points on my defense and put them elsewhere. I like the sleeper potential of the Falcons defense for instance. I also believe Kelce is worth every dollar at tight end, leaving me hard pressed to leave him off my lineup. Same goes for Davante Adams after his big game for Green Bay last weekend.