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NFL Over/Unders 2017, Best Picks: AFC West

By Dan Salem

Jan 1, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos running back Justin Forsett (20) is tackled by Oakland Raiders defensive back Brynden Trawick (41) and defensive tackle Darius Latham (75) in the fourth quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos won 24-6. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 1, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos running back Justin Forsett (20) is tackled by Oakland Raiders defensive back Brynden Trawick (41) and defensive tackle Darius Latham (75) in the fourth quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos won 24-6. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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The NFL Over/Under lines are out for 2017, making now the best time to place your bets. Every team in the AFC West looks solid, but we know someone is going to stink.

NFL minicamps have opened. OTAs and training camps are getting underway. We are officially out of the offseason and into the preseason. With that, it is time to speculate wildly on everything from depth charts to position battles to standings to signings.

Related Story: Best Over/Under Picks AFC South

We debated quarterback battles in Cleveland , Chicago, and Denver, as well as Cincinnati‘s running back battle. But the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines are out, meaning its time to make your bets with our best picks. Based on opening Over/Unders (per Westgate Las Vegas, via ESPN), we have an idea of how each division is expected to finish. Vegas isn’t always correct with its assessment though. There are flaws to exploit in its projections. Next up is the AFC West, which is looking extremely dominant this season.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

AFC West Over/Unders

Oakland Raiders 9.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs 9 wins
Denver Broncos 8 wins
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 wins

Verdict

Todd Salem: Now we’re getting into the powerhouses. The AFC West is arguably the best division in football. Depending on your definition, the NFL Over/Under lines back that sentiment up. It is certainly the most balanced division in the conference. It would surprise me if all four teams went 8-8 only because I could see all of the four being better than .500 in a pinch.

The Raiders are the favorites and rightly so. A return of Derek Carr is the headline, but this team should also be getting a better defensive performance than it got in 2016. 10 wins and the over feels like a baseline. I’m not as confident in the Chiefs or Broncos, though either one could easily jump up and win the division title if just a few things go right. Either could also finish in last as far as I’m concerned.

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Then there are the Chargers. I love the Chargers this year just for the simple fact that injury luck has to reverse course in their favor in 2017. San Diego was 31st in the NFL in adjusted games lost last season according to Football Outsiders. Only the Bears were more hampered by injuries. A move to Los Angeles should also hopefully reverse the team’s awful trend of losing close games. It went 1-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer even though, according to analysts, the ability to win close games seems to be mostly luck over the long haul.

Is all that worth a three-game improvement for LA? That’s the tough part, since this line is so high for a projected last-place team, but I say yes.

Dan Salem: I don’t think this division is nearly as good as you’d like to believe. The Oakland Raiders are the exception and picking over 9.5 wins is a great bet. This is an 11 or 12 win team, easily. They reached double digit wins last season and I see no reason to believe Oakland is worse off. The Raiders look better and their competition looks worse.

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos scare the crap out of me. I don’t trust either team to remain on the winning side of things. Denver was up and down at the quarterback position last year, and while a season of experience should help Trevor Siemian and/or Paxton Lynch, the fact that this is still a competition makes me nervous.

The Broncos have aged elsewhere on the roster and I don’t think they can keep up in the AFC West. I’m going under eight wins because I can’t trust them to get nine. I’m also going under on the Chiefs after they cut Jeremy Maclin. Can Kansas City truly win 10 games with a hampered offense? I’m not buying it.

Next: NFL 2017: Ranking the 30 best wide receivers

I am buying the Los Angeles Chargers and going over 7.5 wins for this team. Injuries will eventually even out, meaning this team should stay healthy, and I love how the Chargers defense has come along. Philip Rivers only has a few seasons left to make some magic, which he’s great at doing. I also think moving to Los Angeles puts a major chip on this team’s shoulder. They have a lot to prove and are more than up to the task.

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