Nov 18, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) talks with wide receiver Wes Welker (83) before the start of the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Wes Welker was arguably Tom Brady’s favorite target in their offensive scheme. They both acknowledge their off the field friendship but early season protests from Welker’s camp claims he felt that his role in the offense was being phased out.

Feeling his role diminish Welker chose to sign with AFC foe Denver Broncos and Brady’s rival Peyton Manning.

“I don’t think anything surprises me any more in the NFL,” Brady said on WEEI. “I’ve been around long enough to see things happen at different times with the greatest players of all, whether that’s Wes, or Randy Moss being traded from the Raiders, or Brett Favre playing for the Jets and the Vikings. That’s what happens. Like I said, it’s a very tough, competitive business.”

Initial reports claimed Brady was upset with Welker’s departure. Whether he was blaming the front office or his friend for the split is still up in the air.

“Of course I have feelings. But those feelings are very personal to me,” he said. “I used to get caught up in anger and frustration and disappointment. But I don’t make the decisions. These things aren’t up to me. At some point you’ve got to realize the things that are out of your control. You’ve just got to let go and focus on my job and what I need to do. Because the game moves on, the team moves on. There’s only so long you can dwell on the past. At some point you’ve got to move forward. Like I said, my job for my team is to be the best quarterback, and not the general manager and not the coach and not the owner.”

Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) prepares to make a pass during the third quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

How can a man, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who has won 3 Super Bowls, played in 5 and thrown more touchdowns in a season than any other player in NFL history get more confident throwing the football?

I don’t know, but apparently he can.

“Going into my 14th year, I have never had more confidence in how I am throwing the football,” Brady told Peter King of Sports Illustrated. “I’ve never felt better throwing the football.”

Tom Brady’s mentor Tom Martinez passed away last year, so he has had to find a new coach. He has been working with former MLB pitcher Tom House.

“I owe so much to Tom Martinez,” Brady said. “He taught me so much about how to play the game and throw the football. He was so committed to me for so many years. I miss him every time I step on the field. I found Tom House, and really developed a rapport with him quickly. I’ve learned, and to me, the learning process is fun. The same way Tom Martinez was always there to watch and give me corrections, Tom House has told me why certain corrections need to be made.”

And at 35 years old (36 in August), believes he is a better quarterback now than in the 2012 season.

“When you’ve got to fit it into the tightest windows, mechanics are crucial,” Brady said. “And to me, the offseason is crucial. If you make a throw within four feet, that’s not going to be good enough. You have to make the throw within four inches of your target. That’s good enough. And that’s why the mechanics you adjust and learn in the offseason are important. You’re going to keep them during the season. Tom House, pretty soon after the season, said basically, ‘All right, Tommy. Get to work.’ That’s the one thing that helps me move forward. There’s nothing we can do about losing the championship game to the Ravens. It sucks. You move on. But, with Tom, I think I’ve learned some things this offseason that are really going to help me.”

If Brady is indeed better, does that make the Patriots Super Bowl favorites?

As a Jets fan, I often found myself pondering reasons for optimism for the NY Jets this year and what they would need to win their division.  Earlier this week I wrote part 1 which talks about the Jets additions that will immediately help reach that goal.  Then I wrote part 2 which was more about the team’s remaining holes and weaknesses.  It is time for the last and perhaps most important reason why the Jets have a shot at the division next year: an analysis on the competition.

Reason #5:  The AFC East is a weak and winnable division this year

Let’s take this opportunity to look at all the teams in the AFC East as they stand now:

New York Jets

Strengths: Defensive Line, Cornerbacks, Offensive Line, Defensive Coaching, QB Coaching

Biggest Holes: Quarterback

Also Needs To Step Up: Safeties, Wide Receivers, Pass Rush

May 10, 2013; Florham Park, NJ, USA; New York Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith (7) talks with offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg (right) during New York Jets rookie minicamp at the Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s assume all before mentioned reasons in Part 1 and Part 2 of these articles happen as I predict they could.  We’re looking at a Jets team with a reupholstered offensive line with the depth to finally be able to stay fresh throughout the season.  We also have a new QB in Geno Smith, who on paper, looks like he should have somewhere between a Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan rookie season depending on the mentality he comes into camp with.  We know one thing; he’ll have good offensive line support.  That is probably the most quintincential thing a rookie QB needs for his first impression in the NFL.  It will strongly benefit his mental growth and composure.  Rex Ryan got it right this season and hired Marty Mornhingweg a coach who has been a head coach before and can take on 90% of the teams offensive coaching responsibilities while Rex focuses on his specialty, the defense.  Now the Jets lost Revis, but gained Sheldon Richardson and Dee Milliner.  While most don’t see Sheldon’s pick being relevant to the Jets needs, you have to remember Rex’s value as a defensive coach.  If a player is a top 4 overall player on his board, that’s something worth trusting.  Coples was drafted in 2012 for his athleticism and versatility so this season is where he has to show it, as Rex moves him into the 3-4 outside linebacker role.  Coples will be supported by Calvin Pace and a new free agency addition, Antwan Barnes, one of San Diego’s top pass rushers in 2011.  The linebackers aren’t the strongest point, but they also aren’t a problem area in the defense.  The Jets will surround them with an outstanding defensive line and cornerback group.  If Rex can just coach the safeties up, this is one of the best defenses in the conference.  The biggest piece IF in this Jets fan pipe dream is can Geno start by week 1 and can he approach the game and play like a 1st round pick, the more he can do that, the less pressure off the other areas of need for the team.  This season basically rides on Geno Smith this year for the Jets.

Miami Dolphins:

Strengths: Wide Receivers, Defensive Line, Linebackers

Biggest Holes: Cornerback, Offensive Line

Also Needs to Step Up: Quarterback

Dec 30, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) warms up before the start of the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Miami is my favorite to win the AFC East as it stands now, not the Patriots.  They gained Mike Wallace who has carried the Steeler offense on his back the last few years.  It helps that he really seems to be clicking with sophomore QB, Ryan Tannehill in camp.  Miami’s big hole is their CB situation.  They traded away Vontae Davis last year and let Sean Smith go to the Chiefs this offseason.   They drafted Boise State’s Jamar Taylor in the 2^nd round who seems like a good prospect, but they’re going to need either him or 3^rd round pick, Will Davis to be good enough to start to begin to close up the cornerback hole in their defense. They look to have a very strong defensive line with the addition of Dion Jordan and a good linebacking corps with the addition of Phil Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe.  Miami’s defense as of right now is about where the Jets defense is personnel wise (maybe a bit below with a big question mark at CB), but the Jets have one big thing the Dolphins don’t, and that’s an off season of Rex Ryan’s defensive development.  The Dolphins season rides on the play of the CBs, Offensive line and Ryan Tannehill.

New England Patriots:

Strengths: Quarterback, Runningbacks, Head Coach

Biggest Holes: Wide Receivers, Safety

Also Needs To Step Up: Health of Tight Ends, Defense as a Unit

Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) sits on the turf after not being able to convert on a fourth down during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

The Pats are always a solid team with Tom Brady at QB.  It’s the hardest position to find a standout to play and they have a future hall of famer.  The only problem?  Just about every position other QB and RB on the Pats will be weak this year.  They had maybe one of the worst off seasons I’ve seen since following football, losing both Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd.  To accommodate for these losses the Patriots picked up injury prone Danny Amendola who wasn’t resigned to the Rams and drafted some off the radar wide receiver prospects in Aaron Dobson (Marshall, round 2) and Josh Boyce (TCU, round 4).  These seem to be decent prospects but I have a hard time seeing either of them replacing Brandon Lloyd.  The Pats, however have 2 tremendous tight end weapons in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski for Tom Brady to throw to, but both had injury problems this past season.  Each of Tom Brady’s proven targets this year were injured for 5 or more games last season.  That’s only issue #1.  The Patriots defense has been a struggling unit for years.  They started fixing it by adding Chandler Jones and Donta Hightower but it seems like the Patriots sidestepped on that defensive rebuilding project this off season, letting safety Patrick Chung go to Philadelphia without finding an adequate replacement.  Most of their draft picks are unfamiliar names to most and don’t seem to be likely immediate contributors to the Patriot defense which makes the unit as a whole look like its taken a step back from last season’s mediocrity.  If the defense can’t step up, it can mean critical games losses against the Jets and Dolphins, especially if Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith are having good days.  Yes, I know you can never count out Tom Brady; but let’s just keep in mind that a far less talented Jets team took a far more talented Patriots team into overtime in Foxboro last year.

Buffalo Bills:

Strengths: Runningbacks, Defensive Backfield

Biggest Holes: Quarterback, Defensive Line, Offensive Line

Also Needs To Step Up: Linebackers

May 10, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback EJ Manuel (3) talks to the media following rookie minicamp at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

There’s not much to say here.  The Bills seemed to be a good team on paper last year but did worse than the Jets.  They lost their #2 and #3 receivers in free agency as well as a pair of guards.  Their most note worthy pickup in free agency was Kevin Kolb.  They did have a decent draft offensively getting Robert Woods, a very talented WR out of USC in the 2^nd round.  They should have a decent pair of outside receivers once they pair him with Stevie Johnson.  They also drafted Marquise Goodwin in round 3, the quickest receiver in the draft.  His big question is his lack of production and ability to beat defensive players in college.  He’s a big question mark but can be a threat as a possible slot receiver or kick returner for the Bills.  I’m not too high on EJ Manuel, he’s a much riskier prospect with an equal or lower ceiling than Geno Smith given his inferior production against weaker college competition.  The Bills need for him to step up in an even bigger way than the Jets need Geno to just to be competitive at all this year.  The Bills added a few linebackers both in free agency and in the draft, but it doesn’t look to be enough for them, unless their veterans can lead by stepping up this season.

One last BONUS reason: Good Timing with a strong NFC, weak AFC

Given all of the above info, the Jets can be in it, given the weakness of the AFC East this year.  In fact, the whole AFC conference is pretty weak outside of the Broncos, Bengals and Texans.  The NFC has a lot more teams that look good this season.  Look at teams like the 49ers, Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Giants, Bucs and Vikings. Even the lower tier NFC teams like the Rams, Lions and Panthers look like they’d be favorites against all but maybe 3 or 4 teams in the AFC.  Having middle and upper level AFC teams like the Pats and Dolphins losing their NFC games will help level out the playing field and put more importance on the games where the Jets play them.  The Jets can pull out this division if they can win against the Pats and Dolphins which could be doable in 2013 with work and focus.

Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) walks off the field after the AFC championship game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. The Ravens won 28-13. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots have been rivals over the past decade. Both have vied for AFC supremacy and Super Bowl trips. They face off in week 9 of the NFL season and Steelers safety Ryan Clark is already circling that date on the schedule.

You could say he is looking forward to it.

“I think what’s really underestimated is Wes Welker’s importance to not only the New England Patriots, but Tom Brady,” Clark said on ESPN. “Losing him is huge. . . . I know they think Danny Amendola can come in and have the same type of numbers he had with the Rams, but we also have to remember, he’s fragile.”

Many have assumed that the Patriots think they can plug Danny Amendola into the system to replace Wes Welker and he’ll produce similar numbers. That Welker essentially was a product of the system, and Amendola can be as well. But Amendola has struggled staying healthy and on the field with the St. Louis Rams.

But that’s not the only weak link in the armor for the Patriots according to Ryan Clark.

“When Tom Brady gets pressure and when you’re man-to-man and bumping those guys and making it hard for him to throw, he sees ghosts,” Clark said. “Even when guys aren’t around him, even when he’s not about to be sacked, when his clock goes off in his head that the ball should be out, we’ll see him duck, we’ll see him flinch. When you get Tom Brady doing that, the whole New England Patriots mystique goes away.”

Clark has proof referencing a 2011 game where they executed this plan and won.

“Two years ago we played them and dominated them because we went man-to-man and had a big corner in Cortez Allen on [Rob] Gronkowski, and made it hard for Tom Brady to get the ball off, in timing, and made him to have to make plays. It was hard for him.”

We’ll see if he’s right next season.

December 23, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (7) watches play from the sidelines in the first half of the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

When Matt Cassel came to the New England Patriots rescue when Tom Brady was injured he had earned a starting job in the NFL. He found a home with the Kansas City Chiefs, where he had a average four seasons. Now as a back up to Christian Ponder, Cassel is highlighting his time in New England as proof that he is the man for the job, the back up job that is.

“I taught Tom (Brady) everything. I thought he really started to flourish after I got there,” Cassel joked to the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “A lot of people don’t understand how much time we spend together. It’s important to be together and be good teammates. And when you have a good (quarterback) room, it makes everybody better in the room. That’s what it’s all about.”

Maybe Cassel can teach Ponder a few things that could make him a more efficient passer and better quarterback. That would take some of the pressure off Adrian Peterson to carry this team, even though he’d like it that way as he tries to reach 2,500 yards.

The Vikings would like that to happen, they certainly don’t want to have to use Cassel, they want Ponder to step up and be the man.

Dec 23, 2012; Jacksonville, FL, USA; New England Patriots helmet sits on the field before start of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

The power house of the AFC East, will always be the heavy favorite to win this division, considering the rest of the teams of this division are still trying to find the right pieces to their puzzle, or something happens to Tom Brady. Tom Brady and the high powered offense of the New England Patriots reached the AFC Championship game last season against the later Super Bowl Champion, Baltimore Ravens. Finishing 12-4 at the top of their division, where they broke the record for first downs at 444 and finished third all-time in scoring with 557 points.

They lost Rob Gronkowski late in the season and in the AFC Championship game, who lead the team in receiving touchdowns with 11. A big key loss for this team going into next year is receiving yards leader Wes Welker, who was one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets next to Rob Gronkowski. I fully expect this team to come out on top of this division once again, if all goes well and their players stay healthy, could be a threat to the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos for the #1 seed in the AFC.

• Sep. 8 at Buffalo Bills 1:00p
• Sep. 12 New York Jets (Thurs) 8:25p
• Sep. 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00p
• Sep. 29 at Atlanta Falcons 8:30p
• Oct. 6 at Cincinnati Bengals 1:00p
• Oct. 13 New Orleans Saints 4:25p
• Oct. 20 at New York Jets 1:00p
• Oct. 27 Miami Dolphins 1:00p
• Nov. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4:25p
• Nov. 10 BYE 
• Nov. 18 at Carolina Panthers (Mon) 8:40p
• Nov. 24 Denver Broncos 8:30p
• Dec. 1 at Houston Texans 4:25p
• Dec. 8 Cleveland Browns 1:00p
• Dec. 15 at Miami Dolphins 1:00p
• Dec. 22 at Baltimore Ravens 8:30p
• Dec. 29 Buffalo Bills 1:00p

Oct 13, 2012; Shreveport, LA, USA; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs wide receiver Quinton Patton (4) catches a touchdown over Texas A

26. Green Bay Packers – Quinton Patton, WR, LA Tech – The Packers are pretty stacked at Wide receiver with Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall Cobb.  But with Aaron Rodgers’ huge contract they decide to add a true outside receiver.  Carrying LA Tech to a 9-3 season and putting up major numbers against the newest SEC powerhouse, Texas A&M; Patton has the potential to be one of the most underrated WRs in the draft. 

27. Houston Texans – DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson – The perfect fit for Houston at this point.  In college Hopkins orginally was Clemson’s #2.  When he got his opportunity with Watkins’ suspension, he proved that he could step it up and be the #1 threat.  This is the type of youngster the Texans should put next to Johnson to give this offense a much needed boost.

28. Denver Broncos – Kawann Short, DT, Purdue – Broncos build depth on their defensive line by taking Purdue’s Kawann Short.  In college Kawann was a team captain at Purdue and started for them since his freshman year, he’s shown great versatility in taking on different roles on the Boilermaker’s interior defensive line.  This makes for a great defensive player for a team who has the need like Denver to invest in for the long term.

29. New England Patriots – Terrence Williams, WR, Baylor – A great and very underrated WR in the draft this year, Williams proved to be productive even after Nick Florence came in to replace Griffin earning first team all american honors and leading the nation in receiving yards.  Also a great kick returner, Williams helps the Pats in multiple ways and impacts New England immediately.

30. Atlanta Falcons – Datone Jones, DE, UCLA - The Falcons take a defensive lineman with great potential to learn the pro game and eventually become a star with guidance from free agent signee Osi Umenyiora.  Datone has had his bumps in the road with injury but posted a spectacular senior season at UCLA making 19 TFLs and 6.5 sacks.  If you add his prototypical NFL size and versatility, he proves to be a very high ceiling project who has the chance to start and make an impact his rookie year in Atlanta.

31. San Francisco 49ers – Eric Reid, FS, LSU - The 49ers get their guy to replace Dashon Goldson in this super stout safety class.  Eric Reid is a former all-SEC free safety who since his freshmen year was a great contributor to the Bayou Bengals’ defense.  A player like this is the perfect guy for a coach like Harbaugh to take in and mold into a great pro.  Eric Reid goes from being a playmaker on one of the best college defenses to one on one of the best pro defenses.

32. Baltimore Ravens – Matt Elam, S, Florida – The Ravens are looking to replace either Lewis or Reed here and have a way better value at the safety position.  Matt Elam was a playmaker in the Gator defensive backfield making 76 tackles (11 TFLs), 1 forced fumble and 4 interceptions.  He is definitely a potential franchise defensive player who can help Baltimore renew their intimidation factor on defense and fill in for Ed Reed in the defensive backfield right away.

Mar 8, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski watches a game between the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is known for his immature offseason habits. Wrestling on stages in clubs while in a cast, drinking and partying to the wee hours of the night. But while some worry that he is putting himself in trouble, the Gronk went  on ESPN’s Mike and Mike to assure us, that would not happen.

“They’re my fans. They’re looking out for me, they’re big fans of the Patriots, they just want to see the team do well and I totally understand where the fans are coming from,” Gronkowski said, via PFT. “I would never do that, put myself in jeopardy.”

The problem is, simply by putting yourself in those situations you are sacrificing total control and are in fact putting yourself in jeopardy. It’s like the old saying, nothing good happens after midnight. By being out late and around other inebriated people you are putting yourself in jeopardy.

But despite the wrestling and antics, Gronkowski says his arm is healing well and he can begin a more normal training regiment soon.

“The arm is feeling way better than it was during the playoffs, and in the regular season when I broke it,” Gronkowski said. “When my trainers give me the good to go, hopefully in the next couple weeks, as soon as possible, I can get going again.”

Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker (83) walks back to the side line during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Many were shocked that Wes Welker left the New England Patriots. Tom Brady was furious that he left and joined his long time rival in Peyton Manning. But Wes Welker’s agent says New England never made an offer to keep him around.

The deal Wes Welker struck with the Denver Broncos was for 2 years and $12 million, a $6 million per year figure the Patriots weren’t willing to match. A figure that was very similar to the annual sum they gave his replacement in wide receiver Danny Amendola.

There was an initial report that the Patriots offered Welker a two year $10 million dollar deal, that could climb to $16 million with incentives. Not according to Welker’s agent David Dunn.

According to CSNNE.com:

“The Patriots simply didn’t want Welker is the contention. The two-year, $16 million offer the Boston Globe reported Welker having dangled during the 2010 season that would have covered Welker in 2011 and 2012 never happened, said Dunn.

No offer was ever made, Dunn contends. Period.”

According to Tom Curran’s summary of his conversation with Dunn, the consensus is that Danny Amendola was the Patriots target and plan all along.

Welker’s reps also point to his diminished role in the Patriots offense at the beginning of the 2012 season as proof that they were moving on with out Welker. It wasn’t until the tight end tandem of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez began dealing with injuries did Welker’s role increase.

But there are 3 sides to every story: Welker’s, the Patriots’ and the truth. We might never see the truth though.

March 14, 2013; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker talks to the media during a press conference held at the teams training facility. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

We all have heard the reports that Tom Brady was less than pleased that the New England Patriots let Wes Welker leave town. But despite that business side of football, Wes Welker and Tom Brady will remain friends.

Despite Giselle’s public tirades.

“You go to battle with that guy for the last six years and have such good chemistry and everything else and one of your best friends on and off the field and on the field and everything else,” Welker said on KOA in Denver, via Sports Radio Interviews. “It’s definitely tough to leave that, but at the same time he understands it. I understand it. It’s part of it. We don’t always like it, but it all works out in the end and he wished nothing but the best for me and I’m the same with him.”

But he thinks Denver will give him a chance to succeed, much like Tom Brady and the New England Patriots did.

“Anytime you become a free agent you think about teams that fit you well. I think Denver was definitely toward the top of that list. It was definitely a place I thought and I told my agent that there are very few places that I would be willing to play and Denver is definitely at the top of the list and I was excited about the opportunity and trying to make this happen.”

Aside from Welker the only passing threats the Patriots possessed were two tight ends, no real deep threats. In Denver he has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to draw attention and free him up.

“I think that’s a big reason why this was such a good fit for me because of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on the outside and everything and really doing some things and the tight ends being a part of the passing game as well and just having those options. It’s a team effort and it never flows through one guy and everybody has gotta be an option and be out there and there you go.”