Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Greg Jones took a free agent visit to the Texans yesterday, and he will replace H-Back James Casey (signed with the Philadelphia Eagles) as the primary lead-blocker for the Texans. Former Houston Texans star fullback Vonta Leach has long set the standard for what it means to be a lead-blocking fullback in the league today, but Jones played so well last year that he has also placed himself among the elite three lead-bockers in the league today.

The Jaguars will surely be a bit bummed out by Jones’s decision to sign with Houston, because they were also vying to keep the 31-year-old Florida State product. In fact, Jones was expected to re-sign with the Jaguars earlier this month by a report from the Florida Times Union, because the new Jaguars regime (led by head coach Gus Bradley) likely appreciated Greg Jones’s contributions to the team last season and saw the viability in keeping a top fullback.

So while the Jaguars had interested in keeping Jones, it wasn’t enough, and it is to the loss of the Jaguars running game and to the gain of a rival’s rushing attack.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter for more NFL updates and analysis @SorianoJoe.

Jan 13, 2013; Foxboro, MA, USA; Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) is pursued by New England Patriots defensive lineman Rob Ninkovich (50) and linebacker Jerod Mayo (51) in the AFC Divisional Round playoff game at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Texans 41-28. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

The NFL passed an unpopular rule to prevent running backs from leading with the crown of their helmet when initiating contact with a defender outside the tackle box. The rule has received backlash from players and fans who disapprove. Coaches and league executives, as well as medical personnel, say the rule is necessary to protect the health of the players.

Houston Texans All-Pro running back Arian Foster said on ESPN Radio New York, via Sports Radio Interviews, it could take a few years to adapt to the rule changes.

“They implement new rules every single year. I like the game the way it was. I understand they’re trying to make a statement, but this is one of those things where they’re trying to put their stamp on this league. Like I said, I liked the way it was, but you can’t really argue with the people that want to change the rules.”

“That play doesn’t come into play a lot with my running style, but you have guys like Adrian Peterson, guys that really are hard runners and try to create that contact. This is gonna affect them more than it will myself. But I find myself sometimes lowering my head and lowering my shoulders. It’s just, you’re not gonna think about the rule changes. We’ve been running like this since we were kids. … They want us to change that mentality in one offseason, it’s gonna be tough. I was never a fan of all the defensive rule changes also — where you can’t lead with your helmet or the facemask — because guys have been tackling like this for years. I was never a fan of that, and I’m definitely not a fan of this.”

“I would have to think a couple years. (to change styles) Because like I said, running styles, especially as a running back, it’s more instinctive than it is strategic. And we’ve been doing it for so long that you have to train your body to run a certain way. So after a while it just becomes second-nature. So a lot of these guys are gonna have to snap out of their second-nature reactions and think before they run into guys. … I’m not a fan of this.”

“I think if you say, ‘I’m gonna do what I gotta do,’ I think you’re being selfish and I think you’re gonna hurt your team like that, because you could have a 20-yard run and you get a 15-yard penalty because you led with the crown of your head and that brings your team back. … And I think that’s how my coaching staff and my organization’s gonna approach it. We’re professionals and these are the rules and the guidelines we have to play under. We all signed up for this thing together and they implement new rules and rule changes all the time. This is the way we have to do it. It’s just part of the game. Rule changes are part of the game. So I’m not one to take a stance on anything if it’s gonna hurt my team. So if it’s all for the betterment of my team I’m gonna do it, but if you ask me my personal opinion about it, I think it’s weak.”

Dec 9, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) runs with the ball against the Chicago Bears in the first quarter at the Metrodome. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Running backs have long been deemed the work horses for NFL teams. Doing the dirty work, running backs are needed to get that few inches in the trenches when it really matters. The 2012 NFL season offered a wide variety of performances at the running back position. Highlighted by an MVP year by Adrian Peterson, running backs are staking their claim that football still relys heavily on the rushing game.

1) Adrian Peterson -

The obvious number one choice for the 2013 NFL season, Adrian Peterson had an absolute incredible year on the ground in 2012. Peterson will be poised to actually break Eric Dickerson’s long standing rushing record in 2013. Coming off an ACL and MCL knee reconstruction, Adrian seemed better post injury than he was before the injury. 2013 should be no different for Peterson who in 2012 led the Vikings to the playoffs with 2,097 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, and an insane 6.0 yards per carry average. Oh, and he was the MVP of the NFL in 2012, out dualing Bronco’s quarterback Peyton Manning for the coveted award.

2) Arian Foster -

Arian Foster will be expected to sustain his rushing success of the past 3 years. Coming on the scene for the Houston Texans in 2010, Foster has shown the type of consistency necessary to be an All Pro year in and year out. His efforts in 2012 helped the Texans make a playoff run which ended in a loss to the New England Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs. Arian posted an impressive 1,424 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns, and a per carry average of 4.1 yards. Arian Foster will be in the hunt for the rushing title in 2013.

3) LeSean McCoy -

LeSean McCoy did a bit of a disappearing act in 2012. He was coming off of two straight 1,000 yard seasons and was expected to repeat or to even better those numbers in 2012. Well, that didn’t happen as he was only able to put up 840 yards rushing, score only 2 touchdowns, and net a 4.2 yards per carry average. LeSean was able to make this list because of one man, Chip Kelly. LeSean McCoy possesses the skill set that a running back needs to shine in a Chip Kelly offense. This could prove to be very good for LeSean McCoy’s stats. During his tenure at Oregon, Chip Kelly’s offense was very good to the running back position, as LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner were able to have outstanding statistics. LeSean McCoy will have a comeback year for the record books.

4) Marshawn Lynch –

Coming off his best year during his time in the NFL, Marshawn Lynch launched himself into the company of elite NFL running backs. Making the Pro Bowl in 2012, Lynch had 1,590 yards rushing, scored 11 touchdowns, and had a 5.0 yards per carry average. It should come as no surprise that the Seattle Seahawks had a very successful year behind both rookie sensation Russell Wilson and the always entertaining Marshawn Lynch. The Seattle Seahawks should fully expect a repeat performance from Lynch in 2013, as they will be trying to make another run at the Super Bowl. Beastmode is here to stay.

5) Alfred Morris –

Alfred Morris came into the year as an unknown rookie running back who was picked in the 6th round of the 2012 NFL draft at pick number 173. Out of Florida Atlantic, Morris proved to be one of the top RBs in the NFL this past year with 1,613 yards rushing, 13 touchdowns, and a 4.8 yards per carry average. With the injury to RG3, Morris should expect a higher work load on the ground, which could benefit Alfred as he will try and improve on the numbers he put up in 2012. Don’t be surprised if Alfred Morris is competing for the rushing title in 2013.

Jan 5, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) celebrates after scoring on a 1-yard touchdown run against the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC wild card playoff game at Reliant Stadium. The Texans defeated the Bengals 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Roger Goodell has been toying with the idea of getting rid of the Pro Bowl all together. Fans don’t like it, they players don’t try and it just is more of a Hawaiian vacation than a game. Goodell has previously tried all sorts of things to encourage interest in the game.

He’s tried moving it to another city, he tried moving it to the week before the Super Bowl, he moved it back to Hawaii.

Peyton Manning famously gave a speech yesterday encouraging players to try their hardest to win. But the players are hesitant, in a meaningless game, to give their usual effort in large part due to the risk of injury. An injury could effect their career and essentially a players wallet.

Houston Texans running back Arian Foster recently spoke out (on the NFL Network, via Pro Football Talk) about his feelings towards Goodell and the Pro Bowl.

“I see both sides of the coin, I really do,” Foster said. “But in all honesty, with all due respect, Mr. Goodell? He’s not out here taking these hits.”

“The fans want a competitive game, but here you have players that have had 16-plus games, an entire season. Our bodies have worn down. This isn’t basketball. You can’t go play pickup football,” Foster said. “It’s a tough situation for both sides. I think it’s a good revenue attraction for the state of Hawaii. It brings a lot of revenue, brings a lot of tourism here, so you don’t want to see it go. And it’s a tradition for the NFL. So hopefully we get it figured out.”

Personally I think the NFL needs to stop making the Pro Bowl something more than it is, an actually competitive football game. It’s a celebration of sorts and should be. Make skills games the highlights of the Pro Bowl weekend. We’ve seen the “tricks” players do in the NFL’s “Pick Me” Fantasy Football commercial campaign. They could continue something along those lines?

Or just make it a flag football game? Heck, divide the players into more than 2 teams and make it a flag football tournament?

Just don’t put lipstick on a pig here and tell the fans this is a serious football game.

What would you like to see them do with the NFL Pro Bowl? Let us know in the comments below!

Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts are looking to upset the division rival Houston Texans next week, and a win for the Colts would likely mean that the Texans will not have a playoff bye and will also head into the playoffs on the downswing.

In other news in the AFC South, the Houston Texans received some good news. Star running back Arian Foster left the game against the Minnesota Vikings with an irregular heartbeat. Although he and head coach Gary Kubiak downplayed what happened, it was no doubt a scary moment.

Texans fans can be rest assured that things are going well for Foster, because he tweeted, “I appreciate all the concern and support. I am doing well. Saw a cardiologist today and everything is back to normal.”

Foster will definitely be starting next week against the Colts, and he has the opportunity to bounce back from a rough start against the Vikings against a weak Colts run defense. He’s been putting in a true workman-like season with 1,315 rushing yards on 335 carries for a grand total of 14 rushing touchdowns, and Foster has also chipped in two receiving touchdowns to help the cause.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

Aug 3, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) talks to running back Ben Tate (44) during training camp at Methodist Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-US PRESSWIRE

In what may have dramatic implications for both real and fantasy-based NFL teams, Arian Foster and Brooks Reed have both been announced as game-time decisions for the Houston Texans by head coach Gary Kubiak.

Arian Foster’s absence would be by far the most impacting. As a top-5 leading rusher in the league last year, he rushed for 1224 yards. He also had the second-highest rushing average per game with 94.2. However, Ben Tate is no slouch of a running back himself, putting up rushing totals of 942 yards for a YPC of 5.4, which is actually a whole yard per carry higher than Foster’s average of 4.4. Unfortunately, Ben Tate is not a full-time running back at this stage in his career, and despite statistics that may indicate otherwise, not being able to share the load with Foster will limit his effectiveness. Fantasy owners, take note.

Brooks Reed was relatively unknown as a second round pick heading into last season’s draft. However, the Texans proved shrewd in their assessment as Reed took over for an injured Mario Williams to great success at the linebacker position (he was a large part of the franchise’s willingness to part with Mario Williams). Thankfully, should he be out for the game, the team plans to use shiny new first-round selection Whitney Mercilus to fill in at the position, which should please Texans fans eager to see what they have in the young man. Expect Reed’s absence to affect the team less than Foster’s, should it come to that.

Follow me on Twitter @TitanSizedJason

Aug 3, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) talks to running back Ben Tate (44) during training camp at Methodist Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-US PRESSWIRE

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

Another week of preseason games and we are now that much closer to the NFL season. To help you guys as much as I can, I’ll now be doing a mailbag every week on top of other fantasy posts to try and keep on top of the questions you guys are sending in. I have five emails to answer today so let’s get right to it.

Q: In your rankings you have my favorite running backs ranked low. Why so down on Arian Foster and Ray Rice? – Ravjit Singh from Mumbai, India

A: I’m actually writing about Rice this week so I’ll focus on Foster who I have ranked fifth. I’ll admit – I came very close to dropping him below both Chris Johnson and Tom Brady as I have genuine concern that Foster will not live up to standard. I have three main points of concern with Foster: injury risk, returning players and Ben Tate.

I remember last year seeing Arian Foster pull up lame early in the year and the result was that many fantasy players were selling him relatively cheaply. While Foster did come back and post good numbers, he did have injury issues throughout the year and I wonder if this is only the beginning as we have seen with some backs. Then there is the fact that you have both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson returning from injury. I do expect the Texans to remain the running team they have become, the presence of Schaub and AJ could bring the team towards a more balanced attack. Then there is Ben Tate who stormed onto the NFL scene last year in Foster’s absence and cemented his place on the team and forcing Houston to employ a far more even timeshare.

Here’s a few facts for you – last season Arian Foster had only seven games of 20 or more carries and overall didn’t play three games. Of the games he did play, Foster had seven games with less than 4 yards per carry and six of those games were under 3.5 yards per carry. Perhaps the most disturbing stat however is the fumbles – in his final five games, Foster had five fumbles with three of them lost and then had a bad fumble in the second playoff game. This trend continues into this year’s preseason as we saw Foster lose a fumble in the game against Carolina the other night.

Foster is ranked fifth but if this were any other year I’d rank him much lower. Luckily for Foster, he is the recipient of this year’s lack of rushing depth.

Q: Here’s a quick one – who’s your favorite player that you didn’t rank and why? – Linc Mastironi from New Brunswick, New Jersey

A: It may be a quick question but it’s a tough one. If I had to name just one it’d probably be rookie Alshon Jeffery. In the past I’ve always been slightly cautious of these flashy rookie wide receivers as they rarely shine in their first year but Jeffery has looked pretty good in camp with his big body and has shown good hands while being able to make spectacular aerial catches using all of his 6 foot 3 frame and 36 1/2 inch vertical leap. Jeffery is worth a late flier in most leagues but you should still wait and see before deploying him.

Q: Yesterday I saw an article you wrote about the Chiefs offense. Should I be investing in Matt Cassel? – Jon Bridges from Bridgeport, Connecticut

A: In my report yesterday, I did have some pretty glowing remarks about Cassel who has looked very good this preseason and has in the past shown the ability to be a borderline fantasy starter. The problem with this is that there are a bunch of quarterbacks out there in the lower rounds who are capable of much the same thing. Now previously Cassel has been in that group of quarterbacks you shouldn’t draft and I believe you can now take him out of that group and into the backup tier with names like Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith. Aside from that it really is personal preference. Don’t reach for Cassel but if you don’t have a backup quarterback by the time you reach that 130+ range then he should definitely be on your radar.

Q: 12 team league, 4 keepers, $250 budget. I am keeping Cam Newton for $8, Wes Welker for $22 and Victor Cruz for $1. With my remaining keeper slot I want to hold onto a running back. Should I go Stevan Ridley for $5, Shonn Greene for $14 or reinvest in a big name by keeping Chris Johnson for $52? – Kevin Johnson from Long Island, New York.

A: First off, forget Shonn Greene – I don’t buy into him at all and with that Jets offensive line starting to look really bad there’s a sense that the bubble has burst on that situation.

The other two is a very interesting discussion because while Ridley is cheap and should give you good production, it is a reality that if you go into the draft with your elite lead running back locked up you are automatically in good shape. The problem with that is that it has also committed a good chunk of your budget also which can give you a disadvantage if other owners have cheap keepers.

Personally I’d roll the dice and lock up Chris Johnson while you can – you just never know what can happen in an auction and with the prices the top running backs could go for you may end up having your lead back at a high but reasonable price.

Q: Jake Locker and Ryan Tannehill have won the starting QB job for their teams. If you were writing rankings today, would either make your top 150? – Hayden Smith from College Station, Texas.

A: I’m going to frank here – Ryan Tannehill is not an NFL quarterback in my eyes. Not yet anyway. Back before the NFL draft, I made it very clear that I was opposed to any team drafting him in the top 10 and that hasn’t changed. Don’t go near him because I believe he’s headed for disaster.

Jake Locker is a quarterback I do like quite a bit but he has some maturing to do as well. He’ll be surrounded by a good running game and a very solid offensive line so things should be relatively comfortable for him despite not having much of a receiving corps. He’s another of these quarterbacks in that 15-22 range that I wouldn’t reach for but is definitely worth a look late in drafts. Just be aware that his accuracy issues will be there for a while yet but if he sorts that out midseason you might just get a nice reward later on.

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That’s it for this week. As always you can send your questions to SZSuperLeague@live.com and I’ll answer more of them in next week’s fantasy mailbag. Also, keep an eye out later this week for my piece on Ray Rice – just be wary that it won’t be a fantasy specific report but there’ll be plenty of good information all the same.

Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

July 30, 2012; Ashburn, VA, USA; Washington Redskins running back Roy Helu (29) runs onto the field prior to Redskins training camp at Redskins Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

Football is here at last – it may only be preseason games but any football is better than no football. As fantasy players, these practice games may not score us any points but they do allow for questions to be answered about what we care about most – who’s going to get the ball. Here’s a summary of the top 10 preseason battles that fantasy owners should keep an eye on.

10. Oakland Raiders WR1 – Denarius Moore vs Darrius Haywood-Bey vs Jacoby Ford

Denarius Moore was a popular sleeper in 2011 – a call that would likely have been proven correct had it not been for injury. The man who took his spot, Darrius Haywood-Bey, finally achieved the potential that had made him a surprise first round pick for the Raiders. With speedster Jacoby Ford – a failed 2011 sleeper candidate – in the mix, there is likely to only be one top fantasy option to emerge on this team given Oakland’s offense making this battle worth monitoring. The winner could become a reliable WR2 or flex play in standard leagues.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB1 – Doug Martin vs LaGarrette Blount

There were such high hopes for LaGarrette Blount in 2011 but his inability to make receptions and almost constant fumbling issues resulted in him losing playing time to Kregg Lumpkin. Doug Martin has been highly touted after the Buccaneers traded back into the bottom of the first round to draft him but to this point Blount continues to top the depth chart for now. Be sure to watch how these two are used in the preseason and news out of Tampa Bay as this one may be closer than many think.

8. New England Patriots RB1 – Stevan Ridley vs Shane Vereen vs Danny Woodhead

This job appears to be Ridley’s to lose with all the latest news out of Patriots camp and the departure of Benjarvus Green-Ellis to Cincinnati. This is New England however and Bill Belichick is notorious for mixing it up with his running backs but now that Josh McDaniels is back running the offense we may see a bit more stability than in previous years. We may not learn the master plan in preseason – hence the low ranking on this list – but we should at least get an idea of who has the better chance of being the fantasy boss in New England.

7. San Francisco 49ers WR – Randy Moss vs Mario Manningham vs Michael Crabtree vs A.J. Jenkins vs Kyle Williams

This is going to be a pretty close battle by all accounts. Mario Manningham is clearly the most reliable fantasy WR on this team but he arguably has the lowest upside. I do think that Kyle Williams will challenge Manningham for touches and may eat into Manningham’s PPR value.

Moss vs Crabtree is going to be the battle that interests most people here as Crab is still a fantasy darling of sorts while many believe Randy Moss could still have something left. Whoever wins this battle will be the team’s burner and in line for some big fantasy weeks should quarterback Alex Smith maintain his improvements from last year.

At the back end – Kyle Williams is an intriguing guy who could be a profitable WR3 from this team and may be worth a late pick in fantasy. Jenkins is a rookie with great speed who will be very special one day but for now he’s at the bottom of the heap.

6. Buffalo Bills RB – Fred Jackson vs C.J. Spiller

This battle could be one that wins some of you a fantasy league this year as both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have the ability to put up top 10 numbers and as such it is well worth keeping tabs on these two. Both Spiller and Jackson are worth drafting in all leagues and both should provide production with Jackson being the primary downhill back while Spiller handles much of the third down work. The crucial thing with this battle is that there’s always a chance that one of these two players edges ahead of the other and gets more work and the clues as to which this could be may come in the preseason.

5. Washington Redskins RB – Tim Hightower vs Roy Helu vs Evan Royster

Can we really trust Mike SHanahan to give us a fair indication of how he will use his running backs? Not really. Entering the preseason, the Redskins depth chart has Hightower on top, Royster second and Helu third and with Hightower currently out Evan Royster has been named the starter for the first preseason game. Cue the mumblings about shananigans and not trusting the situation. However, many will remember how it was the preseason last year in which Tim Hightower broke apart and showed why he was well liked by Mike Shanahan and it appears nothing has changed there.

Early on I ranked Hightower high because of Shanahan’s belief in him and I’ll continue to do so until I see something in the preseason that tells me not to. With Hightower missing the first half of the preseason as he rehabs from last year’s injury, watch how both Helu and Royster are deployed.

Expect this to be a situation where the Redskins run a timeshare – but this could be a very profitable timeshare for fantasy owners depending on who plays what role as we have seen Mike Shanahan use running back committees before but still have fantasy relevants backs – and don’t forget how the presence of a mobile quarterback can help running backs get free as defenses clue into stopping the quarterback from running.

4. New England Patriots WR – Wes Welker vs Brandon Lloyd vs Deion Branch vs Jabar Gaffney

For all intents and purposes this is a typical Patriots WR corps with a bunch of less favored WRs who produce good results. What makes this battle so critical in 2012 is the presence of dominating tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. You know that the tight ends are going to get a bunch of receptions and the running backs will steal their share as well. This makes the use of the Patriots WRs so much more interesting and the number of targets these players will get is crucial to their fantasy value. Of these four wideouts, we may only get one viable fantasy starter.

Quick fact – only three Patriots players had more than 55 receptions in 2011 and of those Wes Welker was the only wide receiver. So keep an eye on how the wideouts are used this preseason because if it looks like more of the same you might want to start dropping Brandon Lloyd down your draft board.

3. Chicago Bears RB1 – Matt Forte vs Michael Bush

When Michael Bush signed with the Chicago Bears this offseason, it was most likely as insurance against the possibility of Matt Forte holding out. Now that Forte is back under contract, the battle between these two could prove to be the most interesting of the year with both potentially being fantasy starters depending on how the Bears choose to use the duo.

It is almost certain that Forte will win the job of being named the lead back but exactly what this will mean is up in the air as Chicago realises they need to keep Matt Forte healthy if they are to achieve what they are capable of. Quite frankly, fantasy owners should hope that Michael Bush performs well in the preseason as if he can play well whenever Forte is on the sideline then this makes it more like Forte will survive the season in tact.

Let’s put it this way – if Bush does his job well, Forte can be a top 5 RB easily. If he can’t, the early part of the season may be the perfect time to sell high on Forte as backs like him and Jamaal Charles tend to need a steady #2 to maintain reliable production.

2. Carolina Panthers RB – DeAngelo Williams vs Jonathan Stewart vs Mike Tolbert

Year after year, fantasy owners lament that Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are forever killing each others fantasy value. While this may be true, both had their chances last season and both failed to grab the starting spot. As we do every year, fantasy owners will be watching the preseason closely to see if either player looks particularly good or bad as if one of these guys can emerge we’re likely talking about an every week fantasy starter.

If neither player can really grasp this job things could get very ugly as Mike Tolbert is now in town and while he is listed as the Panthers fullback he is someone that you have to also keep an eye on in the preseason as if Carolina chooses to utilise him often this will make the waters that much murkier in what is already the most infuriating position battle in fantasy football.

1. Houston Texans RB1 – Arian Foster vs Ben Tate

Back in 2010, the Texans drafted Ben Tate from Auburn in the second round because their running game was a real mess. Tate comes in and promptly gets lost for the season. Enter Arian Foster who takes off and becomes arguably the best running bak in football. Fast forward to 2011 and Tate is back. Foster has his issues with health and consistency at time and Tate lights the NFL on fire as he fills in. Once Foster comes back, both players continue to put up pretty good numbers and the Texans find themselves with a pair of very legitimate runners who are both capable of changing a game with a single play.

This preseason the battle between Foster and Tate has massive implications for fantasy owners. Foster is being drafted first or second overall in most leagues and if Tate is going to rise and take more touches away this places in doubt Foster’s reliability as a starting RB. Tate himself is being taken fairly high although if he can somehow take the top job and continue to improve his production this may be a bargain in the end. Watch this one closely.

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That’s it for this week. Next week I’ll be releasing my mid August rankings which will be the last set this offseason. After that, we’ll be into the football season in which I will have rankings every week based on matchup. Also, the fantasy mailbag will be back next week as well so if you have a fantasy question email me at SZSuperLeague@live.com.

Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

Sept. 11, 2011; Jacksonville FL, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson (28) runs up field against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at EverBank Field. The Jaguars defeated the Titans 16-14. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

When it comes to the NFL there are always those players who come into the season either coming off a bad year and needing to show they still have it or coming off an exceptional year and needing to prove they can do it again. Fantasy football has taken this thinking to a new level as we are now more analytical and critical of players than ever.

When it comes to drafting for fantasy, it’s all about weighing risk vs reward and early in the draft these decisions are most crucial of all as just one pick can make or break your season. Just ask anyone who drafted Tom Brady the year he went out early or LaDainian Tomlinson when his career hit that sudden plateau that eventually resulted in his recent retirement. Picks like that can kill a fantasy team because so much of a team’s overall value and production is tied to the higher picks you make.

I’ve made a list of the five players I think are the biggest risk/reward picks in fantasy. You’ll note that all of these players are expected to be drafted in the first three rounds. I hear some of you asking “what about the players lower down who fail?”. Truth is that those players, while risky, aren’t as big a risk as those taken earlier simply because by the time you get to say the 5th round some of the risk is built into the value of the pick already and indeed makes a pick a great value at that point – Peyton Manning being the perfect example of this.

So here you go – my list of the top 5 boom or bust fantasy picks of 2012:

5. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

Huh? What’s Foster doing on this list? Here we have a player who is a consensus top 3 pick going number 1 in many fantasy drafts this season and yet he missed a number of games in 2011 due to injury and has a very talented guy alongside him in Ben Tate taking carries and threatening to take his job should there be a drop in production. Is it just me or is this a lot of question marks for a top 3 overall pick?

I love Arian Foster and think he is one of the most exciting running backs in the NFL but truth be told I’m avoiding him for the most part this season because he costs far too much for a guy with the question marks Foster has. You disagree? That’s ok, I’m sure you know what you’re doing – just like DeAngelo Williams owners did when they ignored the warning signs a few years back and the fact he had Jonathan Stewart in tow. Whatever happened to DWill anyway?

4. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Gronk won many of you fantasy championships last season with his huge numbers that resembled those of a star wide receiver as he busted through cornerbacks and almost single-handedly forced a rethink from defensive coordinators on how secondaries should be constructed. With all that being said, I am stunned to see Rob Gronkowski being drafted in the first round in some of the mocks I’ve participated in and in the majority he’s been drafted in the first 15 picks. The hype on this guy is going WAY too far based on just one season of production. I remember a Rob Gronkowski who had weeks of very little production to the point where he was dropped in leagues or owners sold high on them while they thought he’d reached his peak already.

Now I’m not saying Gronk is gonna fail to repeat his 2011 numbers. In fact I think he’s likely to become a permanent fixture in the NFL in much the same way Antonio Gates has. What I am saying however is that you should be cautious when drafting him because drafting a tight end so early means you are rejecting options at other positions that could be more crucial to your success. Remember – Gronk wmade good teams great last year because he was drafted late or traded for relatively cheaply. Don’t be fooled into thinking you can build a strong lineup paying so high a price.

3. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

It comes as no shock to anyone to see Michael Vick on this list as it seems he makes lists of this nature every year. Vick is one of those players who has a high probability of being injured, has a very high ceiling but also a rather low floor for someone drafted relatively high. You’ve heard a lot of this stuff before and the reality is that every year Vick is going to pose something of a risk to those who draft him no matter where in the draft he goes.

If you look at my mid June top 150 rankings you’ll see that I have Michael Vick as the fourth quarterback off the board and some time in the second round. Looking around the other websites and having done several mock drafts I’m a little surprised to find that many have him much lower than this. Now I knew that I had Vick higher than most if not all of the other fantasy analysts out there but the general consensus seems to be that he’s a fourth round pick.

Really!?!?! A player of Vick’s upside and history of production who had a bad year for touchdowns in 2011 and yet he gets ranked alongside players with much lower upside and the same sorts of question marks like Fred Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Turner and Frank Gore? For me, Michael Vick is a definite risk and could decline from even last year’s poor numbers but when you get down to the fourth round it is well worth the risk for the upside of a player of this caliber.

2. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

When it come to Run DMC it always comes down to one thing – health. The talent is there in abundance and when he is hot there’s no-one in the NFL who can stop him. When it comes to injuries however McFadden is one of the most injury prone players in the NFL as it seems he’s never met a bandage he didn’t like and when you draft him it seems you always have to accept that he’s going to miss at least 3-4 games due to injury.

This year the risk is greater than it has ever been and it’s because of two men – Carson Palmer and Michael Bush. I hear you – you understand about Palmer and the fact his ineptitude may force the Raiders to get behind a lot but why Bush? For the past few season Michael Bush was the thorn in the side of McFadden’s owners as he took precious carries away from DMC but the reality is that he helped to keep McFadden healthy by taking some of the workload. There is inherent risk that the Raiders could burn out Darren McFadden that much faster if they don’t limit his carries. If you draft him, just hope that either Taiwan Jones or Mike Goodson – who I’m a big fan of – can step up and handle the gap left by Michael Bush’s absence.

1. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

2009 seems like such a long time ago for Chris Johnson. Titans fans and fantasy owners groaned in despair at some of Johnson’s numbers last year as he just couldn’t seem to get going and now we hear talk that CJ2K might not be the focus of the Tennessee offense anymore. It seems as though his glory days are already over aged just 26 – but are they?

When we look back at 2009 and compare his numbers from that year to the rest of his career, they outstrip everything in all aspects by a long way except for two spots – receptions and fumbles lost. Let’s discount the fumbles at this point as his decline in the number of fumbles lost has more to do with his carries dropping than anything else. Receptions on the other hand is a crucial difference. Little known fact – Chris Johnson had more catches in his “terrible” 2011 season than he did in his amazing 2009 run. Coincidence? I think not.

When I read that the Titans were changing their offensive gameplan to incorporate the passing game I had one initial thought – I hope it works so that CJ2K will have a little more room to work and not have to carry the team. That’s right – I was happy with the news. When it comes to running backs they can go one of two ways – either they can remain a bell-cow in just the running game and decline as we’ve seen with Michael Turner or they can become an active component in the passing game and get production in both stages of the offense like Ryan Mathews seems to be.

When it comes down to it, Chris Johnson’s greatest risk lies in the fact that he has shown he is human and can indeed be stopped. For me, the reason he’s less boom or bust than Darren McFadden at number 2 on this list comes down to Run DMC being explosive whenever he is on the fieldwhereas with CJ2K we may get a whole season of mediocrity like we did last year. Just keep this in mind – Chris Johnson still had 4 yards per carry for over 1000 yards last year and 57 receptions to go with it. Sure he’s a risk but an acceptable one on the cusp of the top 10.

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Who’s your biggest boom or bust candidate? Be sure to tweet me @chrissmithsz or leave a comment below. Until next week this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

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