As a Jets fan, I often found myself pondering reasons for optimism for the NY Jets this year and what they would need to win their division.  Earlier this week I wrote part 1 which talks about the Jets additions that will immediately help reach that goal.  Then I wrote part 2 which was more about the team’s remaining holes and weaknesses.  It is time for the last and perhaps most important reason why the Jets have a shot at the division next year: an analysis on the competition.

Reason #5:  The AFC East is a weak and winnable division this year

Let’s take this opportunity to look at all the teams in the AFC East as they stand now:

New York Jets

Strengths: Defensive Line, Cornerbacks, Offensive Line, Defensive Coaching, QB Coaching

Biggest Holes: Quarterback

Also Needs To Step Up: Safeties, Wide Receivers, Pass Rush

May 10, 2013; Florham Park, NJ, USA; New York Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith (7) talks with offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg (right) during New York Jets rookie minicamp at the Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s assume all before mentioned reasons in Part 1 and Part 2 of these articles happen as I predict they could.  We’re looking at a Jets team with a reupholstered offensive line with the depth to finally be able to stay fresh throughout the season.  We also have a new QB in Geno Smith, who on paper, looks like he should have somewhere between a Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan rookie season depending on the mentality he comes into camp with.  We know one thing; he’ll have good offensive line support.  That is probably the most quintincential thing a rookie QB needs for his first impression in the NFL.  It will strongly benefit his mental growth and composure.  Rex Ryan got it right this season and hired Marty Mornhingweg a coach who has been a head coach before and can take on 90% of the teams offensive coaching responsibilities while Rex focuses on his specialty, the defense.  Now the Jets lost Revis, but gained Sheldon Richardson and Dee Milliner.  While most don’t see Sheldon’s pick being relevant to the Jets needs, you have to remember Rex’s value as a defensive coach.  If a player is a top 4 overall player on his board, that’s something worth trusting.  Coples was drafted in 2012 for his athleticism and versatility so this season is where he has to show it, as Rex moves him into the 3-4 outside linebacker role.  Coples will be supported by Calvin Pace and a new free agency addition, Antwan Barnes, one of San Diego’s top pass rushers in 2011.  The linebackers aren’t the strongest point, but they also aren’t a problem area in the defense.  The Jets will surround them with an outstanding defensive line and cornerback group.  If Rex can just coach the safeties up, this is one of the best defenses in the conference.  The biggest piece IF in this Jets fan pipe dream is can Geno start by week 1 and can he approach the game and play like a 1st round pick, the more he can do that, the less pressure off the other areas of need for the team.  This season basically rides on Geno Smith this year for the Jets.

Miami Dolphins:

Strengths: Wide Receivers, Defensive Line, Linebackers

Biggest Holes: Cornerback, Offensive Line

Also Needs to Step Up: Quarterback

Dec 30, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) warms up before the start of the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Miami is my favorite to win the AFC East as it stands now, not the Patriots.  They gained Mike Wallace who has carried the Steeler offense on his back the last few years.  It helps that he really seems to be clicking with sophomore QB, Ryan Tannehill in camp.  Miami’s big hole is their CB situation.  They traded away Vontae Davis last year and let Sean Smith go to the Chiefs this offseason.   They drafted Boise State’s Jamar Taylor in the 2^nd round who seems like a good prospect, but they’re going to need either him or 3^rd round pick, Will Davis to be good enough to start to begin to close up the cornerback hole in their defense. They look to have a very strong defensive line with the addition of Dion Jordan and a good linebacking corps with the addition of Phil Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe.  Miami’s defense as of right now is about where the Jets defense is personnel wise (maybe a bit below with a big question mark at CB), but the Jets have one big thing the Dolphins don’t, and that’s an off season of Rex Ryan’s defensive development.  The Dolphins season rides on the play of the CBs, Offensive line and Ryan Tannehill.

New England Patriots:

Strengths: Quarterback, Runningbacks, Head Coach

Biggest Holes: Wide Receivers, Safety

Also Needs To Step Up: Health of Tight Ends, Defense as a Unit

Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) sits on the turf after not being able to convert on a fourth down during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

The Pats are always a solid team with Tom Brady at QB.  It’s the hardest position to find a standout to play and they have a future hall of famer.  The only problem?  Just about every position other QB and RB on the Pats will be weak this year.  They had maybe one of the worst off seasons I’ve seen since following football, losing both Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd.  To accommodate for these losses the Patriots picked up injury prone Danny Amendola who wasn’t resigned to the Rams and drafted some off the radar wide receiver prospects in Aaron Dobson (Marshall, round 2) and Josh Boyce (TCU, round 4).  These seem to be decent prospects but I have a hard time seeing either of them replacing Brandon Lloyd.  The Pats, however have 2 tremendous tight end weapons in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski for Tom Brady to throw to, but both had injury problems this past season.  Each of Tom Brady’s proven targets this year were injured for 5 or more games last season.  That’s only issue #1.  The Patriots defense has been a struggling unit for years.  They started fixing it by adding Chandler Jones and Donta Hightower but it seems like the Patriots sidestepped on that defensive rebuilding project this off season, letting safety Patrick Chung go to Philadelphia without finding an adequate replacement.  Most of their draft picks are unfamiliar names to most and don’t seem to be likely immediate contributors to the Patriot defense which makes the unit as a whole look like its taken a step back from last season’s mediocrity.  If the defense can’t step up, it can mean critical games losses against the Jets and Dolphins, especially if Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith are having good days.  Yes, I know you can never count out Tom Brady; but let’s just keep in mind that a far less talented Jets team took a far more talented Patriots team into overtime in Foxboro last year.

Buffalo Bills:

Strengths: Runningbacks, Defensive Backfield

Biggest Holes: Quarterback, Defensive Line, Offensive Line

Also Needs To Step Up: Linebackers

May 10, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback EJ Manuel (3) talks to the media following rookie minicamp at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

There’s not much to say here.  The Bills seemed to be a good team on paper last year but did worse than the Jets.  They lost their #2 and #3 receivers in free agency as well as a pair of guards.  Their most note worthy pickup in free agency was Kevin Kolb.  They did have a decent draft offensively getting Robert Woods, a very talented WR out of USC in the 2^nd round.  They should have a decent pair of outside receivers once they pair him with Stevie Johnson.  They also drafted Marquise Goodwin in round 3, the quickest receiver in the draft.  His big question is his lack of production and ability to beat defensive players in college.  He’s a big question mark but can be a threat as a possible slot receiver or kick returner for the Bills.  I’m not too high on EJ Manuel, he’s a much riskier prospect with an equal or lower ceiling than Geno Smith given his inferior production against weaker college competition.  The Bills need for him to step up in an even bigger way than the Jets need Geno to just to be competitive at all this year.  The Bills added a few linebackers both in free agency and in the draft, but it doesn’t look to be enough for them, unless their veterans can lead by stepping up this season.

One last BONUS reason: Good Timing with a strong NFC, weak AFC

Given all of the above info, the Jets can be in it, given the weakness of the AFC East this year.  In fact, the whole AFC conference is pretty weak outside of the Broncos, Bengals and Texans.  The NFC has a lot more teams that look good this season.  Look at teams like the 49ers, Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Giants, Bucs and Vikings. Even the lower tier NFC teams like the Rams, Lions and Panthers look like they’d be favorites against all but maybe 3 or 4 teams in the AFC.  Having middle and upper level AFC teams like the Pats and Dolphins losing their NFC games will help level out the playing field and put more importance on the games where the Jets play them.  The Jets can pull out this division if they can win against the Pats and Dolphins which could be doable in 2013 with work and focus.

Oct 21, 2012; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (6) walks off the field during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Geno Smith or Mark Sanchez?

With David Garrard calling it quits, the Jets QB competition is now narrowed down to the incumbent, Mark Sanchez, and the rookie, Geno Smith.

“This will be a bona fide quarterback competition. Period.” - Jets Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg

The long overdue release of Tim Tebow makes the traveling circus that is the New York Jets, well, less of a circus. If Gang Green wants to get back on track and give their fans some sort of hope, they have to be more successful at throwing the ball down field rather than relying solely on the “ground and pound” game frequently used during Rex Ryan’s tenure.

Geno Smith

Can Geno win the starting job over an established veteran and the incumbent?
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to the QB competition in 2013, the west coast system new Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg plans to implement does not give Smith the advantage with a veteran like Sanchez also vying for the top QB spot. Experience and a fact-paced NFL tempo are extremely important in that system. Unfortunately for Smith, rookies have neither entering the league.

Luckily for Smith, Sanchez has not run a west coast style offense, but does have the experience factor. Additionally, in comparison to other rookie QBs, Smith did run a fast-paced spread offense at West Virginia. He the transition is not too difficult for Smith to comprehend, he could very well have the upper hand come Week 1.

The best news for Smith is that Mornhinweg has a history of success at developing QBs in his system, which will ultimately help him in the long-run. Many critics of Smith think he should sit for a year or two before he gets thrown into the fire. Surprisingly, the Jets are an ideal situation for that. Currently, the expectations are low for the Jets, especially in regards to the QB position. Smith can sit on the bench, learn from Mornhinweg, and develop as a young QB.

Most importantly, if the Jets have learned anything from Sanchez, they shouldn’t throw a rookie QB right out there. It’s just too much, especially in this team’s state ad in a market like New York.

The bench and whiteboard is a good spot for Smith in 2013. He will surely get his chance at some point, and I’d even put my money on him starting by season’s end. But, he shouldn’t get the keys just yet.

Mark Sanchez

Is this the end of the road for Mark Sanchez in New York?
Mandatory Credit: William Perlman/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports

In four seasons, Sanchez boasts a 4-2 playoff record and has taken the Jets to two AFC title games. However, 2011 and 2012′s trough are more telling than the highest peaks in 2009 and 2010 for the troubled QB. There have been plenty of instances like the butt-fumble on Thanksgiving in 2012 and the drama-filled collapse in the final game of the season against the Dolphins in 2011.

Though Sanchez and Wide Receiver Santonio Holmes haven’t always had a great relationship, they have experience playing with one another. Additionally, the Jets return Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley. Hill and Kerley’s potential have yet to be reached, and they have spent their early careers building chemistry with Sanchez. Though Smith can come in and start working with the top three wide-outs to build a relationship, Sanchez’s experience with them has to count for something.

The biggest knock against Sanchez is in inability to lead. He’s built his name as a “game manager,” and has even been unsuccessful in that regard during the 2012 season. To have a chance in a west coast offense, Sanchez has to really show his previous potential and lose the game manager title.

Most importantly for Sanchez, he knows it’s now or never. He’s been the starting QB for a NY team for four years now, and while that position holds plenty of pressure, he now can finally feel the pressure that’s needed to get results. For the first time, he has a short enough leash with known repercussions if he were to fail again. Tim Tebow is not waiting in the wing anymore. Now, it’s young Geno Smith who can very easily take over the team and leave Sanchez in the dust. In the last year of guaranteed money in his contract, Sanchez is in a show up or shut up situation. Maybe that’s just the spark Sanchez needs to finally realize his potential…or some of it at least.

At the end of day, Ryan, Mornhinweg, and the rest of the Jets coaching staff will pick the QB that gives them the best chance to win. At this point, Sanchez is that guy.

Can the Jets actually improve their record and compete in the AFC East in 2013? It all starts at the QB position.

What Twitter Has to Say:

My vision was Garrard starts week one, Geno eased in mid-season. That was best case. This puts lots of bad options into play. #Jets

— Mike Greenberg (@Espngreeny) May 15, 2013

As former Jets HC Herm Edwards said, “This is now Mark Sanchez’s job to lose.”

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 15, 2013

Don’t care what happened with broken-down, 35-year-old Garrard; #Jets would be insane to keep Sanchez on 53. I’ll believe it when I see it.

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) May 15, 2013

If Rex Ryan has any pull, then Mark Sanchez will be the Jets starter in Week 1. #nyj

— Manish Mehta(@MMehtaNYDN) May 15, 2013

Reason #1: The Offensive Line is Much Improved

November 10, 2012; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive tackle William Campbell (73) celebrates during the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

What I was most happy with about the Jets draft is how they spent all their late round picks on their offensive line after drafting quarterback Geno Smith to compete with Sanchez.  This way, whoever wins the battle (should be Geno) will have time to make their proper reads

The Jets offensive line hasn’t been the same since releasing Alan Faneca in 2009.  Reports out of Jets camp say that the team is very impressed with 3^rd round draft pick, Brian Winters and 5^th round defensive tackle to guard convert William Campbell.  The team additionally picked up starters Willie Colon and Stephen Peterman who were starters at guard last year for the Steelers and Lions respectively.  Although, those teams weren’t quite praised for their blockers, these are still start-able players with promising rookies competing to take over their jobs.   The Jets at the very least, should have the depth to rotate and keep legs fresh on the offensive line which will vastly improve their offensive line’s consistency.  Don’t forget that gang green still has two proven pro bowlers in the two most important spots on the line, Center (Nick Mangold) and Left Tackle (D’Brickashaw Ferguson).

Reason #2: Geno Smith is a Player to Be Optimistic About

May 10, 2013; Florham Park, NJ, USA; New York Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith (7) (in red) addresses the media during New York Jets rookie minicamp at the Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

I’ll admit I didn’t want the Jets to draft a QB at all.  This was because I wasn’t 100% sold on anyone in this class and assumed anyone worth taking would be gone in the first round.  But in the 2^nd, after picking up 2 1st rounders, Geno is a fantastic pick and the Jets were lucky to have him available there.

Let’s also consider that there wasn’t a standout safety there with Elam, Reid, Cyprien and Vaccaro all off the board, nor a tight end worth taking with Eifert and Ertz gone.  Even if Ertz was on the board, I would still rather take the QB everyone projected to be the jewel of this QB class (until one reporter – who was wrong with Cam Newton decided to give him a bad write up).  A QB class would have to be exceptionally bad for there to be no prospects better than Mark Sanchez.  Of the 2013 class, Geno is by far the best looking and safest prospect.  Geno had a spectacular college career by the numbers, put up a solid combine and had an amazing pro day, there wasn’t a pass rushing linebacker in this class who had that trifecta.  These are the three most important measurables to go by in a prospect, but it seems that a few bad words about him brought him down in everyone’s minds.  I think of him in the same way I did before the negative reports (that aren’t based on anything tangible) and you should too.  As a first rounder, he’s a risk for a team with so many needs, and only because of his West Virginia’s W/L record in the Big 12.  But as a 2^nd rounder, it’s hard to pass up the opportunity to give the best QB of the 2013 class a shot.

Let’s also look at the QB situation in Buffalo and Miami.  Buffalo will be trusting in Kevin Kolb, Tavaris Jackson or EJ Manuel, who was a riskier pick than Geno for their QB needs.  Miami is hoping for Ryan Tannehill to progress further.  This should ease the minds of Jets fans.  Only one team in the division doesn’t have a big “IF” at their QB position.  Of these three players, Geno has the coaching advantage in Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and QB coach David Lee who are proven at developing talent at the QB position (see Michael Vick 2010).  This makes the Jets a team with the best rookie QB prospect getting coached by some of the best QB coaches in the NFL.  Not a horrible place to be for a team that last year had the worst quarterback play in the NFL since Jamarcus Russell was on the field for Oakland.  Lastly, let’s also remember that John Idzik, the man who picked Russell Wilson in the 4th round last year, picked Geno Smith in the 2nd this year.  Geno not only will win the starting job for the Jets, but has a good shot of being the 2^nd best QB in the AFC East next year.

Aug 4, 2012; Cortland, NY, USA; New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (6) speaks with the media after a scrimmage at SUNY Cortland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

After drafting Greg McElroy out of the University of Alabama, it looked as if the Jets found a back up quarterback who could potentially win the starting job in the future and lead this team to glory. McElroy who played 3 years of football in Alabama, lead the Crimson Tide to a 14-0 season which included the SEC Championship and BCS National Championship.

He was drafted in the 7th round of the 2011 draft #208 overall, but he didn’t see regular season play until last season, when Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow seemed to have trouble getting things together. He played 2 games for the Jets, completing 19 of 31 attempts, 214 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

In March, the New York Jets have announced that they have agree’d to terms with veteran David Garrard, which would make him the 5th quarterback on the Jets roster, behing Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow (at the time), Greg McElroy, and the youngest son of New York Giant’s great Phil Simms, Matt Simms. Last season around the same time he agree’d with the Jets this off season, he agree’d with the Miami Dolphins in hopes to winning the starting position that now belongs to Ryan Tannehill. He ended up undergoing arthroscopic surgery and missed all 4 pre-season games and was released at the very beginning of the season.

Now with Tim Tebow out of the picture and looking for employment in this league or this sport, enter Geno Smith. Smith who was hoping to be selected in the 1st round of the draft, slipped all the way to the #39 pick in the 2nd round. His numbers dropped during the 2nd half of the season in West Virginia during his Senior year, but overall he had an amazing 3 out of 4 seasons.

With bringing in Geno Smith, it looks like the front office of this franchise are slowly starting to give up on Mark Sanchez. Posting a 2nd career low in yards per game (in 4 seasons) with 192, had the lowest touchdown percentage of his career of only 2.9% after throwing 13 touchdowns, had a 4.8% in 2011 where he threw for 26, both seasons matching interceptions at 18. Everybody remembers his infamous ‘butt fumble’, where he ran into his own offensive lineman against the New England Patriots, which resulted in a fumble recovery that was returned for a 32 yard touchdown by safety Steve Gregory.

So it is safe to say with the recent moves by the New York Jets, the quarterback position is up for grabs and as of right now, there are 5 guys on this roster who are going to fight for #1 spot on the depth chart. Whoever that may be, will start the season against Darrelle Revis and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home.

Mark Sanchez is aware of the competition in New York and is pretty excited about the idea of having to fight for his starting position which has been his since he was drafted.

Sanchez was asked if he expected to be the start this year, replying with

“Sure, no doubt. Of course, you gotta own it and compete your butt off to keep it.”

He mentioned he was “thrilled” to have competition going into training camp saying

“They drafted a quarterback, let’s compete.”

He also mentioned in an interview that he spoke with offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg before and after they drafted Geno Smith.

It will be interesting to see how things work out in New York and I’m sure just like last season when the Jets traded for quarterback Tim Tebow, all eyes will be directly on this team through out the preseason. Right now, I honestly think Geno Smith is the heavy favorite to win this position.

5. Quinton Patton, San Francisco 49ers

College/Conference: Louisiana Tech/WAC

Highest People Thought:  Late First Round

Lowest People Thought: Round 2

He Went: Round 4, Pick 31

Nov 24, 2012; San Jose, CA, USA; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs wide receiver Quinton Patton (04) on the bench during the second half against the San Jose Spartans at Spartan Stadium. The San Jose Spartans won 52-43. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Quinton Patton is a 2^nd team All-American who led the mid major Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on a near Cinderella like season.  They finishing 9-3 and he led the conference with 1392 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.  Against Texas A&M, their toughest opponent he led his team very close to an upset bringing in 21 passes for 233 yards and 4 touchdowns only to come short by 2 points.  Patton is the playmaking receiver the 49ers have been looking to add and will make up for the 1^st round pick of AJ Jenkins in last year’s draft.

4. Bacarri Rambo, S, Washington Redskins

College/Conference: Georgia/SEC

Highest People Thought: Round 2

Lowest People Thought: Early Round 4 (after character issues)

He Went: Round 6, Pick 23

Jan 26, 2013; Mobile, AL, USA; Senior Bowl north squad wide receiver Marquise Goodwin of Texas (1) is pursued by Senior Bowl south squad defensive back Bacarri Rambo of Georgia (18) during the second half of the Senior Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. The South squad defeated the North squad 21-16. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Bacarri Rambo is an immensely talented safety who started on one of the best defenses in the SEC since his sophomore year.  His junior year, he was named an AP 1^st team all American and was a consensus 1^st team all SEC.  He got into some trouble failing drug tests which suspended him 4 games his senior season but despite that he still made 73 tackles and caused 6 turnovers (3 INTs, 3 FFs).  He’s a true football player with an NFL skillset.  As long as he can focus on football and stay out of trouble, he’s a long-term solution for a full time safety on the Redskins.  That’s quite a haul for a 6^th round pick.

3. Geno Smith, QB, New York Jets

College/Conference: West Virginia/Big 12

Highest People Thought: Top Pick

Lowest People Thought: Top 5 of Round 2

He Went: Round 2, Pick 7

Apr 26, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Geno Smith (West Virginia) is introduced as the number thirty-ninth overall pick to the New York Jets during the 2013 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Geno Smith is a great pickup who has been vastly underrated by his critics who compare him to the top QBs of last year, Luck and RG3.  Last year’s quarterbacks are rarer talent than your annual top QBs.  A good recently drafted QB to compare Geno Smith to is Ryan Tannehill, who went 8^th overall last year.  Geno’s West Virginia team basically took the spot of Tannehill’s Aggies.  Geno played all the same defense and finished with the same record as Tannehill.  Geno’s stats however, blow Tannehill’s out of the water.  Tannehill finished 2011 with 3744 yards, 29 tds and 15 ints, which is good in it’s own regard.  Geno Smith finished his season playing against the same style and caliber defenses with 4198 yards, 42 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions.  Geno also wowed at pro day and had a good combine like Tannehill.  Geno Smith as a prospect is probably a little bit better of an NFL prospect than last year’s #8 overall pick was and the Jets got him with their 2^nd round pick after adding two dynamic defensive playmakers in the first.  Jets fans have a reason to get excited next season.

2. Larry Warford, G, Detroit Lions

College/Conference: Kentucky/SEC

Highest People Thought: Mid/Late Round 1

Lowest People Thought: Pre-teens of Round 2

He Went: Round 3, Pick 3

July 18, 2012; Hoover, AL, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Larry Warford talks with reporters at the 2012 SEC media days event at the Wynfrey Hotel. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Larry Warford is a 3 time All-SEC guard who consistently dominates at the line of scrimmage.  Many thought he would rise from early 2^nd to the late 1^st round on draft day because of all the teams looking to build their offensive line.  The consensus was that Warford would be the 3^rd Offensive Guard off the board.  He’s a lucky grab for the Lions in round 3 who needed some depth on their offensive line and grabbed someone in the 3^rd that would’ve been 1^st round talent in last year’s draft.

1. Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals

College/Conference: Clemson/ACC

Highest People Thought: Late Round 1

Lowest People Thought: Round 2

He Went: Round 6, Pick 19

Nov 10, 2012; Clemson, SC, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Andre Ellington (23) during warmups prior to the game against the Maryland Terrapins at Clemson Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

Andre Ellington is a 2 time All-ACC running back and has led the conference’s emerging power in Clemson to the ACC championship game his junior season.  In his senior season, he helped Clemson to its first 11 win season since 1981.  This guy is a quick, agile runner capable of making an immediate impact on an NFL team in need of a rusher.  Some people, including hall of fame San Diego Chargers running back, Ladainian Tomlinson had Ellington as their favorite running back in the draft this year.  For him to fall from the 2^nd round all the way to the 6^th is great news for the running back hungry Cardinals who add a pair of promising rookies to their backfield this season.

Dec. 23, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Tim Tebow (15) runs off the field behind running back Joe McKnight (25) after the game against the San Diego Chargers at MetLife Stadium. Chargers won 27-17. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets have released quarterback Tim Tebow. In a rare move this offseason for the Jets, they actually let a quarterback go. They at one point had accumulated six different quarterbacks on their roster.

They had Mark Sanchez and Greg McElroy on their roster before adding David Garrard and then drafting Geno Smith. They also had a guy named Matt Sims.

“We have a great deal of respect for Tim Tebow,” Jets coach Rex Ryan said in a release.  “Unfortunately, things did not work out the way we all had hoped.  Tim is an extremely hard worker, evident by the shape he came back in this offseason.  We wish him the best moving forward.”

By waiting till after the draft it certainly seems that the New York Jets were trying to make a trade. But the market seems to be avoiding Tim Tebow at all costs.

What makes this all the more confusing is that by drafting Geno Smith you put the Jets in almost the same position next year as you did last year when you traded for Tim Tebow.

Geno Smith comes in with less fanfare and pandemonium than Tebow did. He hadn’t let a NFL franchise on a tremendously emotional ride from bottom of the league to a playoff win. But it’s essentially the same two quarterbacks system with Geno Smith filling the vacant mobile quarterback role that Tebow held. But he was projected by some to be the number one overall pick, that puts him in the hype realm with Tebow.

And not to mention they have Garrard there. Someone is getting cut.

Oct 6, 2012; Austin, TX, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Tavon Austin (1) scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Guys who play on Saturdays hope to become stars on Sundays, starting Thursday night when college and pro football collide at the 2013 NFL draft.

OK, maybe “collide” isn’t the best choice of words given the leagues’ concussion issues. Speaking of concussions and bad word choices, I’m brain dead from looking at mock drafts and reading the latest rumors of teams supposedly hoping to trade up or down. I’m not bothering with a mock draft because this stuff is impossible to forecast and this year presents a deep and particularly unpredictable draft.

We’re obsessed with the NFL draft because we’re obsessed with the NFL. And the best and easiest way to win in the NFL is to be able to predict which players will be great, so now we’re obsessed with mock drafts (even if it’s pointless to attempt predicting this stuff). On Grantland, NFL guru Bill Barnwell’s pre-draft column basically said the whole thing’s a crap shoot and NFL teams may or may not know how to draft any better than you or I do, and the best thing I read about the draft all week was by Rolling Stone political writer Matt Taibbi.

The most exciting thing about the 2013 NFL draft, for me, is the fact that two West Virginia Mountaineers will likely be the keys to how the first round of the draft will play out. Geno Smith, the concensus top-ranked QB, has been speculated to go as high as somewhere in the top 5 or to perhaps slip and slide all the way down to a team with an established starter (like Aaron Rodgers fell to the Packers in 2005).

WR Tavon Austin is one of the most electrifying game-changers available and, despite all the offensive and defensive line talent at the top of this draft (and teams always looking for those big, safe first-round picks), every team should consider drafting Austin or trading up to get into position to do so. Why? THE GUY SCORES TOUCHDOWNS. Give him the ball, on a quick slant or bubble screen, on a reverse or even delayed-draw hand off, or on kick/punt returns, and he can take it to the house. Herm Edwards famously reminded us that “You play to win the game,” and many awful announcers have said the team that scores the most points will win. Tavon Austin will score points in bunches, and that’s the only thing I know I’m sure of heading into the 2013 NFL draft.

As for the things we don’t know… here are a few bold predictions sure to go wrong:

• The Cleveland Browns will pick QB Geno Smith with the sixth overall pick, and trade Brandon Weeden for a mid-round pick. Too soon to give up on Weeden? Maybe, but there’s a whole new regime in Cleveland, and they’ve already brought in veteran QB Jason Campbell who can either play well until Smith is ready and/or mentor Smith as a solid backup (and he’s a mature pro who will accept either role). And Weeden turns 30 in October.
• Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball might be the top two RB’s drafted, but UCLA’s Jonathan Franklin (the 8^th-ranked RB on NFL.com) will be a superstar and easily have the best pro career of any RB in this class.
• During ESPN’s draft telecast, Jon Gruden will say “I love this guy” 14,682 times. And the corpse of Chris Berman will undoubtedly attempt some form of “Star Lotulelei is sure to be a star in this league” joke.
• Whichever blue-chip offensive lineman falls to the Eagles at number 4 will end up the best of this class and they’ll land QB E.J. Manuel in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.
• Tavon Austin will not go to the Jets, Panthers, Saints,or Rams (picks 13-16) because the Dolphins will beat them to the punch by taking Austin at number 12.
• No matter if they pick for offense or defense, if they make a great pick or a questionable one, the Jets and Bills fans will be shown on TV booing. Actually, that’s the only sure thing at the NFL Draft.

22. St. Louis Rams (From Redskins) – John Cyprien, S, FIU – The Rams fill in their need at safety here with John Cyprien, a standout free safety from Florida International, where he currently holds the record for all time leading tackles.  This is a guy who may be unfairly overlooked because of his school but will put out some major numbers to whatever team drafting him.  It’s a homerun hit for a team like the Rams who are only a stand out safety away from fielding a complete defense with no other glaring needs

23. Minnesota Vikings – Keenan Allen, WR California – The Vikings use this opportunity to upgrade their 2012 WR situation.  It’s unfortunate they lost Percy Harvin, but to be able to sign Greg Jennings AND be able to draft a playmaking receiver like Keenan Allen, elevates their offense more than if they had stayed put with Harvin.  Plus, it’ll be nice for Minnesota to have a receiver on the team that won’t miss games due to migraines that occur when the team makes him stop smoking pot for league drug tests.

24. Indianapolis Colts – Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M – The Colts get a highly heralded pass rusher way down in the draft.  Damontre, originally thought of to be a top 5 pick, was one of the best pass rushers in the nation last year at A&M.  A flimsy combine and decent pro day made his draft stock take a bit of a free fall.  The Colts picks him up here, hoping his performance in Indianapolis is better the second time he comes to town

25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle Seahawks) – Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia – Minnesota has 2 picks and can take a shot at the quarterback everyone has been talking about.  This gives Christian Ponder much needed competition at the least and a new franchise quarterback at the most.  At this point given every team’s situation, Geno makes the most sense in Minnesota if Jacksonville isn’t comfortable enough to reach for him with the #2 overall pick.

Feb 24, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith throws a pass during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Feb 24, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith (13) participates in a passing drill during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The 2013 NFL draft is just weeks away, and here at NFL Spin Zone, we are committed to bringing you the best draft coverage on the web. We will be posting mock drafts and discussing the needs of all 32 NFL teams. We will also be profiling all the best players in this year’s class for all positions. With that in mind, here are NFL Spin Zone’s top five quarterbacks.

1. Geno Smith, West Virginia. 6’3, 218 lbs.

Undoubtedly this year’s best quarterback in what many consider a weak group of passers. I don’t neccesarily agree with that sentiment, but I do believe Smith is the number one QB.

He is well sized, and his height poses none of the problems that seems to bother NFL scouts when assessing rookie QBs. He was the fastest quarterback when running the 40-yard dash at this year’s combine, and he will appeal to any team looking to find the next Colin Kaepernick or RG3.

He has a good arm and has shown that he can make the fast throws as well as demonstrating a nice touch as well. He does well when leading the receiver, leading to extra yards gained on the play.

Consider this – against Baylor in his senior year, Smith’s stats were as follows: 45 of 51 for a massive 656 yads, including eight touchdowns and no interceptions. I doubt we will see that kind of production in the NFL, but it still remains highly impressive.

Whilst he may not be quite as athletic as Kaepernick or Griffin, he still has above average mobility and shows decent acceleration once he takes off running. Primarily, he prefers to sit in the pocket and make the plays, and does so with much success. There’s no doubt he’ll go in the first round of this year’s draft; the question being to which team. It seems unlikely the Chiefs will draft him, leaving a team like the Eagles perhaps being unable to resist taking him with the third pick.

2. Mike Glennon, NC State. 6’7, 220 lbs.

I like Mike Glennon a lot. His size is a positive and he looks every bit of his 6’7 frame when he’s standing tall in the pocket. He has no big injuries to speak of, and has a 15-11 record as a starter throughout his career.

He is an intelligent passer with a strong arm, aided by a quick release. Like Smith, he is able to make all the little touch passes required in the NFL as well as putting some heat on the ball when required. He is an accurate passer and this doesn’t seem to be affected by how far he is throwing the ball.

At times he can hold on to the ball too long, or fail to throw it away, but that’s something that will improve once he enters the league.

He can evade a ceratin amount of pressure, but he will never make a living from running the ball. What you get with Glennon is a good sized QB who is able to make all the throws and play well under pressure.

I think we will see Glennon off the board sometime in the early to mid second round, and he has the skills to serve any NFL team well.

3. Matt Barkley, USC. 6’2, 225 lbs.

Once a sure fire first round pick, Barkley now finds himself among all the other quarterback not named Geno Smith.

Barkley has a lot of game experince and shows a lot of discipline, both on and off the field. He is well versed in running a pro-style offense, giving him the chance of fitting straight into an NFL team. He is adept at leading receivers with his passes and although his arm strength might not be the greatest, he more than makes up for it with the rest of his skill set.

When in the pocket, he shows good awareness, and is not afraid to take a hit in order to make the play. He protects the ball well and although he is not blessed in the athletic department, he is by no means stone-footed.

Barkley should do well in the NFL, and I think it is to his advantage that he is not sitting in the spotlight he once was. It has given him the time and space to work on his game and prepare for a career in the NFL.

Someone might take a chance on him towards the end of the first round, but I think the second round is a more realistic place for him to be drafted.

4. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse. 6’2, 225 lbs.

Nassib did well at Syracuse, suffering as he did with a lack of receiving threats. By all accounts, he is a hard working individual with a good work ethic, seeking to improve his game at every opportunity. He is ceratinly a tough player, not afraid to hang in the pocket and take the big hit.

He moves through his progressions well and is a good decision maker. One criticism is that he puts a little too much pace on all of his throws, and he will need to learn when to lay the ball in there as oppose to firing it in, making some balls un-catchable

Like many of this year’s quarterbacks, he is not going to light it up when running the ball, but has quick enough feet to gain a few extra yards in order to get rid of the ball.

It reamins to be seen how Nassib will develop in the NFL. At the moment it’s a close call between him landing a starting job or being a pereenial backup. But with the right coaching and with the right supporting cast, he should excel.

5. Landry Jones, Oklahoma. 6’4, 225 lbs.

The Sooner senior has good height and weight, and throughout four seasons, he has played 53 games. His durability is not in question. Perhaps what is in question is his arm action, suffering from a bit of win-up motion. None the less, he displays good accuracy and a nice touch at times.

He does well when rolling out to make the pass, and although his deep ball is okay, it could do with a bit of work. Jones is very aware of pressure and moves around the pocket with great skill. Again, he doesn’t pose much threat in the way of running the ball, but with the ability to make all the throws that NFL teams are looking for, he doesn’t really need to make that many plays on the ground.

I think he will go somewhere in the third round, but given the fact that not that many teams are looking for a QB, he could slip to the fourth.

So, what do you think? Which quarterback will make the biggest impact this year, and who are you excited about seeing in the NFL. Let us know in the comments below.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

In Don Banks’s 2013 NFL Mock Draft published on Sports Illustrated, the Buffalo Bills select USC Trojans standout Matt Barkley to be the next franchise QB-hopeful in Buffalo. Geno Smith is regarded as the best quarterback in this draft class for good reason, but he was not available for the Bills; Banks had the Jacksonville Jaguars yanking Smith off the board with the second pick.

Barkley is an interesting consolation prize, and he has worked his way back into being viewed as the second-best QB in this draft class. The Bills would have to morph their offense into a West Coast Offense by selecting Barkley, but it’s worth the switch in scheme if they believe Barkley can be “the guy”. Barkley and Smith are the only two safe selections at the quarterback position in this draft class, and Barkley has terrific short-range accuracy to combat arm strength deficiencies and other criticisms of his game.

The Bills will almost certainly take a quarterback in one of the first two rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft with the intention of making that QB “the guy”, because their biggest need comes at the biggest position. Ryan Nassib and Doug Marrone have the strongest links, but Nassib tends to get overrated. But if the Bills do believe that Nassib can be the guy, then he’s worth a second (maybe even a first) round choice spent.

Barkley’s big question is arm strength, and Banks notes that his draft stock will rise if the QB quells those concerns with a big pro day performance at USC today.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter for more NFL updates and analysis @SorianoJoe.