Oct 6, 2012; Austin, TX, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Tavon Austin (1) scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Guys who play on Saturdays hope to become stars on Sundays, starting Thursday night when college and pro football collide at the 2013 NFL draft.

OK, maybe “collide” isn’t the best choice of words given the leagues’ concussion issues. Speaking of concussions and bad word choices, I’m brain dead from looking at mock drafts and reading the latest rumors of teams supposedly hoping to trade up or down. I’m not bothering with a mock draft because this stuff is impossible to forecast and this year presents a deep and particularly unpredictable draft.

We’re obsessed with the NFL draft because we’re obsessed with the NFL. And the best and easiest way to win in the NFL is to be able to predict which players will be great, so now we’re obsessed with mock drafts (even if it’s pointless to attempt predicting this stuff). On Grantland, NFL guru Bill Barnwell’s pre-draft column basically said the whole thing’s a crap shoot and NFL teams may or may not know how to draft any better than you or I do, and the best thing I read about the draft all week was by Rolling Stone political writer Matt Taibbi.

The most exciting thing about the 2013 NFL draft, for me, is the fact that two West Virginia Mountaineers will likely be the keys to how the first round of the draft will play out. Geno Smith, the concensus top-ranked QB, has been speculated to go as high as somewhere in the top 5 or to perhaps slip and slide all the way down to a team with an established starter (like Aaron Rodgers fell to the Packers in 2005).

WR Tavon Austin is one of the most electrifying game-changers available and, despite all the offensive and defensive line talent at the top of this draft (and teams always looking for those big, safe first-round picks), every team should consider drafting Austin or trading up to get into position to do so. Why? THE GUY SCORES TOUCHDOWNS. Give him the ball, on a quick slant or bubble screen, on a reverse or even delayed-draw hand off, or on kick/punt returns, and he can take it to the house. Herm Edwards famously reminded us that “You play to win the game,” and many awful announcers have said the team that scores the most points will win. Tavon Austin will score points in bunches, and that’s the only thing I know I’m sure of heading into the 2013 NFL draft.

As for the things we don’t know… here are a few bold predictions sure to go wrong:

• The Cleveland Browns will pick QB Geno Smith with the sixth overall pick, and trade Brandon Weeden for a mid-round pick. Too soon to give up on Weeden? Maybe, but there’s a whole new regime in Cleveland, and they’ve already brought in veteran QB Jason Campbell who can either play well until Smith is ready and/or mentor Smith as a solid backup (and he’s a mature pro who will accept either role). And Weeden turns 30 in October.
• Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball might be the top two RB’s drafted, but UCLA’s Jonathan Franklin (the 8^th-ranked RB on NFL.com) will be a superstar and easily have the best pro career of any RB in this class.
• During ESPN’s draft telecast, Jon Gruden will say “I love this guy” 14,682 times. And the corpse of Chris Berman will undoubtedly attempt some form of “Star Lotulelei is sure to be a star in this league” joke.
• Whichever blue-chip offensive lineman falls to the Eagles at number 4 will end up the best of this class and they’ll land QB E.J. Manuel in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.
• Tavon Austin will not go to the Jets, Panthers, Saints,or Rams (picks 13-16) because the Dolphins will beat them to the punch by taking Austin at number 12.
• No matter if they pick for offense or defense, if they make a great pick or a questionable one, the Jets and Bills fans will be shown on TV booing. Actually, that’s the only sure thing at the NFL Draft.

Dec 30, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; A reflection of Qualcomm Stadium in a puddle on the field during the first quarter of a game between the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL has been called a quarterbacks league, a copycat league, the No Fun League, and “Not For Long” if you don’t play well enough. Increasingly, it has also become the Perception league.

Think about how our perceptions have changed, and shaped the way we think about… Joe Flacco… Ray Lewis… Randy Moss… Colin Kaepernick went from project to protege overnight. If Tom Brady yells at his teammates during a game, he’s a competitor. But when Jay Cutler does it people say he’s just a dick. Perception.

When Brady recently signed a restructured contract extension, the perception was that he “took less money” because he’s such a Great Guy who just wants to win. Of course, it was quickly pointed out that the extension is fully guaranteed, regardless of injury, so he’ll be making $9 million per year at ages 38-40. In fact, Brady has renegotiated his contract 7 times and gotten a raise each time. But the media narrative is that he’s willing to play for “less” (but still more) so the Patriots can afford to build a winner around him (just as he and his even-richer supermodel wife have built a moat around their mansion).

The perception is that the NFL has a salary cap, but the reality is there are many ways around it. Obviously Brady is only the most famous example; players all over the league are lining up to re-do their deals. (I’m still not sure what the difference is between these book-cooking “restructured” contracts and whatever it is the Cowboys and Redskins were penalized for doing during the un-capped season.)

From New England, we travel to Kansas City (like Matt Cassel, Scott Pioli, and Romeo Crennel before us). Cassel is out, now that the Chiefs have agreed to trade for former 49ers starting QB Alex Smith. The perception is that Smith is/was the top QB available this off season, a solid veteran for new coach Andy Reid to build around. But not long ago Alex Smith was the poster boy for mediocrity, declared a bust perhaps mostly due to being drafted first overall but also in part because it looked like he just wasn’t that great of a football player.

But now that he’s spent a couple years playing well under Jim Harbaugh and playing an instrumental role in the Niners rise to contention, we perceive bringing in Alex Smith to be your starting QB as a slam-dunk of a no-brainer move. I’m not saying he’s terrible or anything, but he’s 2-25 as a starter when the opponent scores 24 or more points and he’s never thrown for 20 TD’s in a season. Let’s just say he may have benefited from the dominant defense and strong running game in San Francisco.

From San Francisco, he travels to Kansas City (like Joe Montana and Elvis Grbac before him). Now he’ll be playing for Andy Reid, another test case in NFL Perception. Most view him as a “great coach,” and he was hailed as the most sought-after skipper about 12 seconds after he was officially let go from Philly. Certainly his record with the Eagles was impressive, but I still see him as a bit overrated. His play calling and clock management (or lack thereof) definitely cost them some games over the years.

It’s interesting that the Chiefs, holding the first overall pick in the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft, saw no franchise QB’s worthy of the number one pick, so they traded for a guy who was once a first overall pick because a QB-desperate team was picking first in a draft that was perceived to not have any franchise QB’s (although some guy named Aaron Rodgers did slip all the way to the 24^th pick).

Anyway, I assume the fans in and around Kansas City are thrilled about the new direction of the Chiefs…. But it wasn’t that long ago that most people would have pointed and laughed at the thought that a surefire way to turn your team around would be to bring in Alex Smith and Andy Reid!

Replacing Reid in Philadelphia is former University of Oregon head coach Chip Kelly. Once again the perception when the NFL coaching carousel started spinning was that (other than The Legendary Andy Reid) Chip Kelly was THE hottest name in coaching. Vince Lombardi reincarnated. Well, in the words of that true legend, “What the hell’s going on out here?” Again, not saying Chip Kelly stinks at coaching football. But he’s never coached at any level in the NFL, and had never been a head coach at any level of college until taking the helm at Oregon in 2009. Just 10 years ago, he was the defensive coordinator at Johns Hopkins.

College coaches have had their ups and downs when making the leap up to the NFL (and often quickly back down to the college ranks). For a while, the perception was that the big-name college coaches just couldn’t cut it (thanks to the failings of Lou Holtz, Butch Davis, Steve Spurrier, Bobby Petrino, Nick Saban, and others). Of course, now that perception has changed (thanks to Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll suddenly threatening to put a stranglehold on NFC domination).

Chip Kelly hails from the Pac-10 conference where Harbaugh and Carroll once operated, as does USC QB prospect Matt Barkley. He was once perceived to be a near-certain franchise QB and possible first-overall pick had he left school early for the 2012 draft. Now he’s just somewhere near the top of the pack of middling QB hopefuls in what is universally deemed to be a pretty weak draft class for franchise QBs.

The top-rated QB in the upcoming draft, one originally rumored as a possible first-overall pick by the Chiefs before they traded for Alex Smith, is West Virginia’s Geno Smith (no relation). Geno has undergone his own perception evolution. Not really on many people’s radar before the 2012 season, Geno put up some ballistic statistics early in the season in Dana Holgorsen’s high-powered Mountaineer offense. On his way to a senior season of 4205 yards with 42 TD’s and only 6 interceptions on 72% passing, he dropped 656 yards in a game against Baylor when he threw more TDs (8) than incompletions (6).

But WVU cooled off (thanks to attempting to play out the season without a defense) and Geno wasn’t even among the finalists for the Heisman. Now, he could be the key to how the first round of the draft unfolds. The perception is that he’s probably the safest bet from this QB class to be a longtime starter and possible Pro Bowler. But some say he’s not worth a top-5 or top-10 pick. Others think that quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft (Oakland, Philadelphia, Arizona, Buffalo, the NY Jets, and possibly Cleveland) might regret passing on a poised, talented, and experienced passer like Geno Smith.

Speaking of perception, Notre Dame LB Manti Te’o went from Heisman finalist and likely top-5 pick to now being in danger of slipping out of the first round simply because of the infamous fake dead girlfriend hoax and his slow 40-yard-dash time at the NFL Combine.

Of course our perception of all these players and where they end up getting picked will change by the Monday morning after the draft, and then again when they take the field in the fall and then again many times over the next several seasons.

Which brings us back to future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Tom Brady, who was a compensatory 6^th-round draft pick, the 199^th player selected that year.

Oct 6, 2012; Austin, TX, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Tavon Austin (1) is tackled by Texas Longhorns safety Kenny Vaccaro (4) during the game at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. West Virginia beat Texas 48-45. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

While West Virginia University QB Geno Smith might take center stage as far as one of the keys to how the 2013 NFL Draft unfolds, his teammate Tavon Austin might just be the most electrifying player about to go pro. Projected as a late first- or early second-round pick, Austin also has a chance to land on a contending team instead of one in major rebuilding mode.

Football fans of WVU have endured a mixed bag of recent alumni when it comes to the NFL Draft and subsequent career success in the league. Last year saw a pleasant surprise when Bruce Irvin went 15th overall to the Seattle Seahawks. It was bittersweet, in that most of the media immediately panned it as a reach at that spot and a highly questionable pick. Irvin turned out to be a disruptive force as a pass rusher, part of a relentless defense that keyed Seattle’s great season and playoff run.

Before that, plenty of WVU talent has either had character baggage (Chris Henry and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones) or hasn’t been able to translate their little-guy speed and playmaking ability from the college highlights to longterm success in the pros (Noel Devine, Pat White, Steve Slaton, Amos Zereoue).

So now we have Baltimore native Tavon Austin, another slight-of-frame (5’9”, 175lb) runner-turned-receiver who’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball, whether on punt and kick returns, out of the backfield, or as a wide-receiver, his official position listing for the NFL draft.

Austin won the Paul Hornung award given to the most versatile college football player in 2012 after he ran for 643 yards and 3 TDs on 72 carries, caught 114 passes for 1,289 yards and 12 TDs, returned 32 kickoffs for 813 yards and a TD and returned 15 punts for 165 yards and another score. He’s one of those “Swiss-Army-Knife” players who can really do it all.

Despite the aforementioned history of Devine and Slaton and Zereoue, and the obvious here-we-go-again feeling that this latest flashy Mountaineer is more likely to flame out than blow up… there’s a buzz about Austin that signals otherwise. WVU Pros recently had a great round up of much of the scout talk and media hype surrounding Tavon Austin’s talent and potential.

NFL & Draft Lead Writer for Bleacher Report Matt Miller told me he thinks Austin could be “a big-time impact” player as an inside-slot receiver and return man, sees skill set/talent potential similar to Randall Cobb and Desean Jackson, and envisions him as a late-first-round possibility to San Francisco, with the best fits being Denver or New England.

In fact, penciling in Austin at #29 to the Patriots is becoming a popular sentiment, including the most recent Fansided mock draft.

Most people see his size as a match for the possibly departing Wes Welker and his big-play potential would certainly make Tom Brady and company even more dangerous. But I don’t think we should rule out the idea of him getting plenty of touches out of the backfield too. He was a RB in high school (you may have heard of his legendary high school highlight tape) and he carried the ball 21 times for 352 yards vs. Oklahoma in 2012 en route to an eye-popping 572 all-purpose yards (6 yards shy of the NCAA record set by Emmit White against the New Mexico State defense).

One of the main reason guys like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III took the league by storm (beyond their passing skills and grace under pressure) was the fact that if/when they did “make a play” it was often a back breaker that saw them taking it to the house. A rookie WR like Austin certainly wont have the ball in his hands as much as those QB’s, but he can still be a potential game changer along the lines of Cobb and Jackson as mentioned, or perhaps like a healthy Percy Harvin without all the baggage. While his size might scare away some teams, he never missed a game at West Virginia despite amassing enough touches and yards to fill highlight reel after highlight reel.

While he’s most-often rated as a late-first or early-second rounder, Austin might not be a foolish reach to be picked earlier. Maybe the Rams want to use that extra first-round pick they got from the Redskins (#22) to give Sam Bradford a much-needed weapon and get a game-changing return man to maximize the field position game of their defense. The Vikings could pick him at #23 to replace the unhappy Harvin.

Other teams picking late in the first round, like the Packers, Colts, and Falcons, have nice offenses and will likely draft defense. But the Texans playoff appearance reinforced that they are in need of an offensive threat to complement RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson. And of course San Francisco and New England are intriguing landing spots where they will be looking to add play makers.

But there’s another team, sitting at #24 in the first round, that might also want a shiny new toy for their young quarterback and this should scare the hell out of the rest of the league: imagine Tavon Austin in Seattle’s backfield next to Marshawn Lynch as a possible option for QB Russell Wilson in the zone read game.

The Seahawks are one of the few teams without major glaring holes, they can afford to swing big and land this home-run hitter in the first round. They have WR’s Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, and Doug Baldin (a nice group, but not exactly murderers row), and return man and backup RB Leon Washington is heading into his 8th season. Despite all the deserved praise for Wilson, he’s still a young QB who would benefit greatly from the type of safe quick-slant passes that Austin always threatens to take the distance.

This draft is shaping up as defense heavy, with lots of depth of talent at defensive tackle and safety. But perhaps the biggest catch might come with an offensive weapon heading from West Virginia to the Northwest.