Jan 6, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens receiver Anquan Boldin (81) is defended by Indiapolis cornerback Cassius Vaughn (32) on a 45-yard reception in the third quarter in the AFC Wild Card playoff game at M

This is the return of You Heard It Here First where bold predictions are the norm and crazy theories are allowed to run wild.

It may be Super Bowl Sunday but I’m already looking ahead to the offseason and in this addition of You Heard It Here First I thought I’d tackle one of the major pieces of Joe Flacco’s offense – his troublesome receiving corps.

Now I hear what you’re saying – you didn’t think there was much wrong with the receivers Baltimore has right? Well I’d disagree. There are three main points to consider here. First of all, Torrey Smith isn’t a truly legitimate deep threat – yet. He’s coming along nicely but to date he’s covered a little too easily and when isolated can disappear. So, in my opinion, the Ravens could use a second genuine deep ball receiver.

Second, there is the team’s cap situation. They have plenty of room – currently it is estimated the team is under the cap for 2013 by some $16M – but with Joe Flacco due to get the big payoff in the coming months and Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger all being free agents there is some belt tightening needed. As such, Boldin will at least be required to reduce his contract and if he refuses there’s a decent chance the Ravens choose to cut him.

Lastly, there is the fact that Boldin’s role can be filled relatively easily. Jacoby Jones has played well this season and could be a cheap replacement as the team’s primary possession receiver. There’s also tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson to fill that role as well as the dynamic Ray Rice out of the backfield. All this makes Boldin expendable.

Ok, so Boldin could be gone. So, I hear you say, why the heck should Baltimore go and pay for Greg Jennings?

First off, let’s address the cap situation. The Ravens do have some depth at linebacker despite Ray Lewis’ retirement. Courtney Upshaw was a genius pick in the 2012 draft and is the future at the outside and is worthy of some trust. This makes either Kruger or Ellerbe easier to let go.

As for Ed Reed, the team should send strong hints to his agent that they don’t intend to re-sign him so he can retire gracefully as a Raven. To put it frankly he is going to be too much of a cap problem and not worth the price tag. This team needs to transition to the future anyway and now is the perfect time to say goodbye to the veteran safety – which, for the record, really hurts me to say as I consider Ed Reed one of my five favorite players in the NFL.

These moves plus the removal of Boldin would give the team the ability to pursue Jennings. While he’s had his issues over the past year or two, all the talent is still there for the Packers WR as evidenced by some terrific performances in 2012. He would provide an esperienced threat both downfield and in the shorter passing game and instantly forces opposing defenses to make sure he’s covered which would help open up space for Ray Rice and the tight ends up the middle or Torrey Smith further downfield.

All year there’s been this suggestion that Baltimore’s offense is missing something. I believe we’re going to see this in today’s Super Bowl and that something has to be done about it in the offseason. Should the Baltimore Ravens cut Anquan Boldin to sign Greg Jennings? If it happens, I certainly won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

Oct 14, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (56) motions to fans after the game at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Raiders 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Josh D. Weiss-US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

One of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season has been the relative parity throughout the league. There has been a prominent lack of those dominating teams that have stepped up and taken the league by storm. Week after week we have found our preconceptions about “strong” teams destroyed as team like the 49ers, Texans and Giants have looked very good and then had a week where they have looked completely flat.

That brings me to the perfect 6-0 Atlanta Falcons – the biggest frauds in the NFL today.

Yes, I know that is strong language but when it comes to this team I think it is fair. This team may be undefeated but they do not deserve to be by any means. In their six games so far, they have only truly been convincing winners in two of those games – week 1 in which they tore apart that woeful Kansas City secondary for a 40-24 victory and the demolishing in week 3 of the San Diego Chargers in which Philip Rivers was at his very worst, Ryan Mathews was just returning from injury and Matt Ryan started to make us believe he was a genuine MVP candidate.

Ok, that’s two out of six wins. What about the other four?

First off, the week 2 win against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Yeah it was obvious that Peyton wasn’t quite on his game as he threw for three interceptions in the first quarter. The Falcons should have finished that quarter better than 10-0 up though. The most telling part of this game was that Matt Ryan had several opportunities to take the game by the throat and put it beyond doubt but in this he failed. 10-0 became 20-0 before Peyton Manning threw a late TD to make it 20-7 at half time. From there on the Falcons scored just once more and allowed Manning to regain his composure and bring Denver to the brink of victory with a stirring fourth quarter comeback that fell just short. Atlanta won – because Peyton Manning ran out of time. They should have romped home easily.

If the first three weeks were the high point, the following three weeks were barely passable. Week 4 and Atlanta just barely got past a Carolina Panthers team that hadn’t looked good to that point and hasn’t looked as good since. The dreadful offensive line got completely overwhelmed in this game as Matt Ryan was sacked seven times. Throughout this game, Atlanta put up points but continued to be outplayed as a whole and doing just enough to get by. It finally got to the point where the gave up a ten point lead as Carolina went up by 1. Then the stars aligned as Cam Newton fumbled a ball which forced a punt, Matt Ryan hit Roddy White for a 59 yard reception and Mat Bryant kicked the game winning field goal with only 5 seconds remaining. Atlanta deserved to lose but somehow they squeaked out a W.

October 7, 2012; Landover, MD, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) and tight end Tony Gonzalez (88) stand on the field against the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

If that win was lucky, their next was plain disturbing. The Washington Redskins should have been a chance for Atlanta to re-establish their dominant passing attack as the Redskins can’t cover anybody this season. Matt Ryan did have a very good game in the end and when he needed to he marched his team down the field late to secure a victory and he finished with 345 yards through the air. What disturbs me about this game was that once again Atlanta seemed to go to sleep partway through the game and they let Washington challenge them. The defining moment was when Robert Griffin III was knocked out of the game with a concussion due to a questionable late hit. Despite RG3′s departure, Washington still came within a whisker of winning thanks to a ridiculous 77 yard touchdown pass from rookie QB Kirk Cousins to veteran WR Santana Moss. Matt Ryan led the team to the point where they could get the points to win but it should never have been close and if RG3 had stayed on the field this game could have been lost very easily.

Finally we get to perhaps the worst win of all – week 6 against the Oakland Raiders. Carson Palmer seemed to dominate the Falcons defense for most of this game as he kept connecting despite Darren McFadden’s relative ineffectiveness on the ground. Oakland was actually looking comfortable for most of the first half and went into the break 13-7 up. For all that Palmer was great in the first half, Matt Ryan was terrible, giving up three early interceptions to a team that didn’t have a single pick until this game. On the day, he couldn’t get over 250 yards passing. Atlanta tightened things up with a pair of field goals in the third to tie it up but didn’t look like winning. The turning point came in the fourth as Asante Samuel returned a pick 79 yards for a touchdown. The Raiders did reply with a TD of their own but it was this play that got Atlanta playing hard again and they woke up long enough to get Mat Bryant in range for a 55 yard field goal that he nailed with 2 seconds to go. Atlanta had won again – just.

Looking at how Atlanta have played to date, they may be 6-0 but they could just as easily be 2-4. Granted, they have won the games and granted that in the end it is their record that is reflected in the overall standings. I just do not expect this to continue for the rest of this season. Looking back, Atlanta should have played so much better to this point. Don’t believe me? How about we see what ESPN’s Adam Schefter has for us:

[blackbirdpie url="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/261277268536594432"]

There have been some relatively poor teams that Atlanta has faced so far. It gets much tougher from here though. The rest of the NFC East awaits in the second half as well as stronger division rivals twice each in the Saints and Buccaneers. Throw in the Detroit Lions and surprisingly tough Arizona Cardinals and this makes for a difficult stretch to finish up. Add to this that they spend all season with a home game followed by a road game and then back again and you have some very tough times ahead.

Before the season, I predicted the Falcons would go 6-10 and even with their perfect start I am still worried that this team is not legit. Call me crazy but I’m predicting they go no better than 10-6 and may only go 8-8. This Atlanta team may have won a number of games so far but that is all about to change – starting with a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and the returning Michael Vick this weekend.

The Atlanta Falcons are 6-0 but they are far from perfect – I call them weak. Should Atlanta indeed struggle the rest of this season, I will not be surprised and now you won’t be either because You Heard It Here First.

December 26, 2011; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) celebrates after breaking Dan Marino

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

Until 2011, there had only been two 5000 yard passing seasons in NFL history – the record 5084 yards from Dan Marino in 1984 and Drew Brees 5068 yards in 2008. All of a sudden in 2011 we have three quarterbacks break the barrier in a single season with and there was almost a fourth as Eli Manning fell just 67 yards short of the historic mark. Of those, two of them – Brady and Brees – broke the old record from 1984.

Yes, 2011 was a magical year. Could it be a harbinger for things to come? It seems so. It has never been easier for quarterbacks to pass efficiently as the NFL has gradually continued to restrict defenses in the name of fairness and safety resulting in the quarterback having so much freedom that there is now more time than ever before to make decisions.

How much further can it go? Well consider a few of these remarkable stats:

• The NFL passing record wasn’t the only one broken twice in a season – Rob Gronkowski broke the all-time receiving record for a tight end in a season, as did Jimmy Graham who had only 17 yards less than Gronk. Gronkowski also attained the record for touchdowns in a season by a tight end with 17 – a total bettered only four time previously by a wide receiver.
• On his way to the yardage record, Drew Brees broke a number of other records including completions, completion percentage, passing yards per game, only player to ever have 250+ yards in every game of a 16 game season – the list goes on.
• There were two 500 yard games in 2011 – one each for Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady – which is remarkable considering there had only ever been 10 such games in the previous 90 years.
• Until 2011, there had only ever been five seasons where a quarterback passed for 40 or more touchdowns. Last season, three quarterbacks achieved the mark with Tom Brady getting 39.
• Charles Woodson, Eric Weddle and Kyle Arrington tied for the league lead in interceptions and set a record in the process – lowest leading total ever with 7.
• The Green Bay Packers, who went 15-1, set a record for most passing yards conceded in a single season – a record previously held by the 1995 Atlanta Falcons.

The last time we saw a sudden influx of offense like this was a long time ago – you have to go all the way back to the early 80s to see similar leaps. This was in the time just after the first of the changes to negate defense came through in 1978 and what eventually led to Marino’s 1984 record breaking season. However, this increase in offense was only the beginning. Yes, we didn’t instantly see everyone suddenly reach 5000 yards but what we did see was that from that time onward offense numbers started creeping up with the elite numbers jumping forward and staying ahead.

What I would contest is that the new rules surrounding safety are what has driven the latest surge of offense and that you can expect the barrage of passing to continue. Last season we saw ten quarterbacks reach 4000 yards – double the number from 2010 – but by contrast the second time that it had happened in NFL history – although the first was 2009. It used to be that 4000 yards was the realm of the super elite with there being four occasions this century where three or less quarterbacks managed the feat in a season.

So what am I suggesting? With the continued curtailing of defenses, quarterbacks who make quick decisions will be able to amp up production and we will see more and more 5000 yard seasons to the point where by the end of this decade 5000 yards will be the rule for elite quarterbacks, not the exception.

Remember the days when if a quarterback reached 3500 yards he was considered to be a top starter? Last season Josh Freeman managed that – with a 79.6 season passer rating which tied for 25th in the league with Colt McCoy. Safe to say, Freeman is NOT a top starter in this league and there’s a decent chance he loses his job within the next 18 months. If we look at team passing yards – thus taking into account injuries – a total of 18 teams passed the 3500 yard threshold in 2011. If 18 teams can do it, it’s not much of a high standard anymore.

So as the NFL continues to evolve and offense become more and more prosperous, keep an eye on the numbers. When 5000 yards is broken on a regular basis, I won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

Apr 14, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) throws a pass in the 2012 spring game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

Around the NFL there are a number of quarterbacks in precarious situations but also many quarterbacks in good situations who shouldn’t be. Every year we see a fairly high turnover of starting quarterbacks in the league despite but due in part to the complexity of the position and I believe that 2013 will be no different. One player almost certain to be a starting quarterback next year is USC’s Matt Barkley and you can safely assume that he is an option for every team on this list. To make things a little simpler, let’s go through each of the team’s one by one so you can see why I believe 25% of teams will not have the same starting QB in 2013.

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals quarterback situation has been in flux ever since Kurt Warner retired and it is no closer now with the team’s decision to retain Kevin Kolb who looked truly woeful in 2011. With the team placing even more emphasis on the passing game in the form of first round pick Michael Floyd, Kolb must step up in 2012. In my opinion I don’t think he’ll manage it. Come 2013 I believe either John Skelton will be the starter or some other player currently not with the team.

Houston Texans

A couple of months ago I wrote an article on how I thought the Houston Texans might part ways with Matt Schaub and from the research I have done since this is still a distinct possibility. With the salary cap issues the Texans will have next year it is unlikely they could afford to put a franchise tag on Schaub and it would take some VERY creative accounting to pay hm what he deserves. When you take into account the contract just given to running back Arian Foster and the fact that usually Kubiak and the Texans prefer not to pay quarterbacks big money for the time being I am going to say Schaub ends up elsewhere.

So where does this leave Houston in 2013? T.J. Yates performed admirably in Schaub’s absence last year and with another year of coaching he could be a legitimate option for this team should they choose not to draft or sign a big name quarterback. I would also expect the team to retain rookie Case Keenum of the University of Houston. My other expectation is that the Texans would pick up a veteran free agent to compete with Yates.

Miami Dolphins

No surprises here – the Dolphins quarterback situation is one obviously in flux right now. There are reports that rookie Ryan Tannehill could start for this team to start the 2012 season but I have serious doubts about this particularly as I didn’t think Tannehill should be a top 10 NFL draft pick in the first place. For my mind the best option for Miami in 2012 is former Carolina Panthers QB Matt Moore who was actually pretty good for Miami last season after taking over for incumbent Chad Henne. I give Moore every chance to win the QB battle this preseason and he’s talented enough that he may keep the job for most if not all of the season.

With all that said, I also fully believe that Ryan Tannehill will be the starter in 2013. Truth about the Miami Dolphins is that this team still needs work and they’re unlikely to perform this season which will see a ground-swell of support build to give Tannehill his opportunity. I expect Moore will either be traded or cut following this season – you did great for us kid but we’ve had enough of ya so bye. Tough break for Moore who deserves a lot better but that’s the nature of the NFL sometimes. He’ll make a very good FA pickup for someone in the 2013 offseason.

New York Jets

I really don’t want to write about this next situation basically because I have absolutely no faith in either of the main quarterbacks on the Jets roster. Let’s be honest – Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow have both got talent but neither is really an NFL-quality quarterback. Sanchez got his contract extension this offseason as a rather empty show of support from Jets management but I can see absolutely no way that Tebow stays out of the starting job for longer than one season. Mark Sanchez has been awful at the NFL level and while he has shown flashes of brilliance there’s just not enough there. Watch him get traded this offseason.

As for Tebow, he’s no great shakes as a quarterback either but at least he knows how to make plays happen. When you watched Denver last year it was obvious that Tebow contributed to a bunch of victories. What most people appear blind to is that his supporting cast helped him a lot more than Tebow’s fans are willing to accept. Willis McGahee may not be as good as he once was but he had a fantastic season supporting his young quarterback and I truly believe that it is McGahee and not Tebow who deserves the most credit for the success of the Broncos in 2011. So color me sceptical but while I see Tebow as the Jets starter next season I don’t see anything to this except empty hype.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are a mess. Hard to say anything else about this team at the moment. The death of Al Davis left a hole in this organisation and I was truly shocked, appalled and disgusted by the actions of former Raiders head coach Hue Jackson when he took advantage of the situation to leverage a massive and irresponsible trade for former Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer that gutted the franchise and ultimately resulted in Jackson’s departure. I won’t go into that aspect too much further except to say that Jackson should never have acted the way he did in helping both Palmer who he was associated with at USC and the Bengals who he had worked with previously.

Palmer may have had an offseason to prepare but when you look at the tape of his performance in 2012 it was just plain bad. Poor decision making was his biggest weakness as he failed to read defenses which resulted in a good deal of the interceptions he was charged with. He was still developing his chemistry with the Oakland receivers I know but the decision making was so poor that this can’t be blamed on the receivers or Palmer’s lack of time. When you factor in that Palmer is owed a huge contract that is due to pay him $13 million in 2013 I see no way that Palmer is on the roster after this season.

Seattle Seahawks

Some of you will be surprised to see Seattle on this list but this is a reflection of the fact I think the Matt Flynn experiment might not work. Is he talented? Yes. Is he worthy of a starting spot in the NFL? As of right now – absolutely. Is he an NFL caliber starting quarterback? On that note I have my doubts and on a Seattle Seahawks team that lacks a truly talented receiving corps – unlike what Flynn had in Green Bay – he may struggle.

There are so many ways the Seahawks could go but I am going to suggest a slightly unconventional route – I’d throw Russell Wilson in there and give him a shot. When it comes down to it this team could go out and get themselves another quarterback. They could even go for Matt Barkley who will join the NFL from Pete Carroll’s old stomping grounds of USC. I’ve been doing a lot of studying up on Russell Wilson these past couple of months and I am surprised to find myself warming to this kid. He may be small and he may be better suited to playing elsewhere on the park but his decision making, accuracy and field awareness and all pretty good. Call me crazy but I like this kid to earn his shot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oh dear – this one is going to anger some of you. This is reality people and in the real world a team needs a good or at least capable quarterback to succeed in the NFL. Josh Freeman is neither of these things. He had one good rookie season in which he came out and surprised us all with his ability but his true colors shone last year as he failed miserably as both a quarterback and as a leader on a young team. Freeman might be a starting caliber quarterback one day – I doubt it – but right now he needs to step back and let someone else take the reins. I expect the Bucs to either draft another quarterback or go out and get themselves a solid veteran because Josh Freeman needs more time to grow and mature.

Tennessee Titans

This is easily the most predictable change on this list because I am 100% certain that Matt Hasselbeck will start the 2012 season as the Titans starting quarterback. This is one of those situations where you have a high quality veteran who’s getting old and may not have much left being replaced by the young buck drafted to replace him. There may have been knocks on Jake Locker going into the 2011 NFL Draft but he fully deserved to go as high as he did and I believe he has a very bright future – which includes starting the 2013 NFL season as the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans.

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25% of NFL teams switching quarterbacks come 2013? I believe it could happen. When it does I won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

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March 20 2012; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) speaks during a press conference at Broncos headquarters. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

The Forbes 100 lists in recent years have become an american institution as eagerly we look at the lists to see who’s richer than who. In the NFL world, the Forbes list of the 100 richest athletes is what interests us most. This year it is no surprise to see that the highest paid NFL player is the recently signed Peyton Manning who ranked 10th overall at $42.4 million.

This got me thinking – how long can NFL salaries continue to increase? The global financial crisis has taught us that money in fact cannot grow exponentially and this is no more apparent than in NFL owners continuing plight to get more of the revenue pie. If you want an example of what can happen when the players get too much of the money, just look at the NBA – the majority of owners there are either losing money or relatively speaking are making very little.

We have a further indication of the likelihood of salaries leveling out with the way the salary cap is likely to move in the coming years. What may shock you to learn is that it won’t be moving very much at all in the near future which in the short term suggests that not even players on big contracts such as Nnamdi Asomugha, James Harrison and Doug Free are protected by the big cap hit their teams would take as teams will be forced to make hard choices to get under the cap.

Looking into the future, I believe the future of player revenue will come in more endorsements. As more and more we see sports celebrities in the public eye we’re going to see more and more corporations getting on board. The super elite will always get the bigger shares – Peyton Manning already earns about $10 million in endorsements – but it may be that in future we see more investment from the corporations in players. In recent times revenue has been driven by the big TV deals but with the way financial markets are changing this could change the thinking of corporate sponsors of the TV networks who may find their dollars are better spent in deals with the players themselves.

In a few years time when reading the Forbes 100, if the salary numbers haven’t climbed that much higher but the endorsements have I won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

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Nov 20, 2011; Miami, FL, USA; Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller (28) runs with the ball during the first half against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

I can remember watching C.J. Spiller play for the Clemson Tigers in college and thinking “man, this guy is gonna be huge when he gets to the NFL.” Come the day of the 2010 NFL Draft and when the Buffalo Bills pick comes up they had their choice in so fast that I remember the one of the NFL Network commentators say “the Bills are about to pick their franchise player” then the shock when Roger Goodell revealed the Bills had taken Spiller 9th overall with both Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson on the team.

Ever since selecting Spiller the Buffalo Bills have undergone a transformation of sorts. Under Chan Gailey there have been obvious improvements most notably on offense despite the team choosing to part ways with Lynch. After two years in Gailey’s offense, I believe now is the time for C.J. Spiller to shine.

This offseason the Bills chose to pay starting running back Fred Jackson with a contract extension worth $8.7 million in new money but what is being underplayed is that aside from the $3 million signing bonus none of the contract paid is guaranteed and as such Jackson could be cut at any time with only barely a blemish on the team’s salary cap. The Buffalo Bills have all the leverage in the deal and this bodes well for Spiller as he stands to take Jackson’s job should the 31 year old falter.

One of the biggest issues I had with the Bills’ offense last year was the overuse of Jackson who at age 30 was reaching the back end of his career. Spiller has obvious talent and is the future of this team’s offense. With Jackson coming off a season-ending injury Buffalo would be wise to use this opportunity to utilise Spiller’s immense talent. In this his third year in the NFL it is about time the former first round pick paid back the trust the Bills placed in him by taking him so high in the 2009 draft.

Should the Bills choose to give Spiller a much larger role in the offense I believe they will not be disappointed. Spiller’s speed and elusiveness was on display last year as he replaced Fred Jackson ably and he is only getting better as time goes on. Gailey commented on the improvement in Spiller since coming to the team:

“His confidence level just went through the roof in my opinion. He knows what to do a lot better now. He has a lot of confidence that he can play running back, he can go out and play receiver, he can do a lot of things and blocking. He’s gotten better at his blocking from the previous year. His ball security was a lot better last year. He carried it multiple times and did a good job of controlling the ball. Just his overall confidence level I think is very good this year.”

These words should be viewed by Buffalo Bills fans with optimism as there’s indication C.J. Spiller may be ready. Should he have his breakout year in 2012 I won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

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Apr 28, 2012; Renton, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, defensive end Bruce Irvin, and general manager John Schneider stand at the beginning of a press conference in the Virginia Mason Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

Predicting award winners is always fun but often treacherous – just ask the punters who put a futures bet on Andrew Luck winning a Heisman. This week I thought I’d take a crack at guessing the offensive and defensive rookie of the year winners for 2012. Yeah I know – it may be June but you gotta put the flag in the ground sometime and I’d be guessing just as much in September as I am now.

Just to make things interesting I thought I’d give an award in both the AFC and NFC and then at the end I’ll pick a winner from the two.

AFC Offensive Rookie Of The Year – Mohammed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Right out of the blocks I have a surprise in that I don’t have Trent Richardson, Andrew Luck or even Coby Fleener. Instead, I’ve chosen the unassuming Mohammed Sanu who I feel is going to make a big impact for the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Sanu finds himself in a pretty good situation with Jerome Simpson departing for Minnesota and leaving an opening for the former Rutgers standout.

With A.J. Green drawing coverage away with his blazing speed I expect Sanu to get a boatload of targets and to become quarterback Andy Dalton’s go-to receiver. Don’t be surprised if Sanu leads the Bengals in receptions this season for maybe 1200 yards. His only detriment – I don’t see a lot of touchdowns for Sanu out the gate but his hard work will be enough to get him noticed.

AFC Defensive Rookie Of The Year – Quentin Coples, DE, New York Jets

I’ll get this out of the way – I’m a big believer in Melvin Ingram who ended up getting drafted by the San Diego Chargers but what I like even more is the Jets defensive system and the way Rex Ryan uses his personnel. When you look at the list of defensive rookies of the year you’ll notice it’s all explosive pass rushers and highly productive linebackers and Coples exemplifies the type of player routinely selected for this honor.

Many believe Quentin Coples is an experiment who is the quintessential boom or bust candidate and for my mind that assessment is absolutely correct – I just believe he’s gonna work out at least for his rookie season. Coples has already shown he’s got some amazing talent and when you think of defensive coaches who bring out the best in defensive players who just need that push to get them going Rex Ryan is it. I’m gonna enjoy seeing Coples rip through the AFC East this season and we’ll certainly be counting the sacks as Coples flirts with a record or two.

NFC Offensive Rookie Of The Year – Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins

This is probably the most obvious pick of the four as I’m sure many of you agree. There are some decent candidates out there – A.J. Jenkins, Doug Martin, Michael Floyd and LaMichael James to name a few – but when you come right down to it RG3 is just too talented to ignore and unlike Andrew Luck finds himself on a team where his talents could be exploited right away. He’s very agile and very fast as his combine 40 time told us but for me this isn’t much of a factor.

I think that in 2012 we’re going to be impressed not by Griffin’s running ability but his decision making, accuracy and touch on his passes.Unlike Cam Newton, this is a quarterback who doesn’t give up on a play and run when things start to break down but rather who tends to hang in the pocket and make a play happen. This is one reason I loved the acquisition of Pierre Garcon for the Redskins as he’s well used to not giving up on a play given the way Peyton Manning plays. I can’t wait to see RG3 out there – he’s gonna be fun to watch.

NFC Defensive Rookie Of The Year – Bruce Irvin, DE, Seattle Seahawks

This decision was the hardest of all as there are so many potential candidates in the NFC class – from well known names like Morris Claiborne, Luke Kuechly and Mark Barron to lesser names who I really like in Lavonte David, Mychal Kendricks and Jamell Fleming. In the end I went for the player I expect to come into the NFL and make an explosive impact straight away – Bruce Irvin.

In his time with West Virginia Irvin was extremely impressive showing he had all the tools to be a top NFL pass rusher. However, Irvin has also had some off-field issues and in particular his arrest in March on a property damage charge raises eyebrows. There’s also some issue about whether Irvin can defend the run well. To me, this doesn’t matter too much. Ultimately what makes the difference with defensive rookie votes is numbers and with his speed I can see Bruce Irvin piling up stats on quarterback pressures and sacks which gets him my selection.

Offensive Rookie Of The Year – Robert Griffin III

Mohammed Sanu is going to be a solid candidate but in the end Griffin’s numbers and position are going to be too much.

Defensive Rookie Of The Year – Bruce Irvin

Quentin Coples and Bruce Irvin are both going to excite the NFL with their speedy play and sack numbers but I’m giving the slight edge to Irvin who I believe will have a slightly easier time.

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So there you have it – a couple of pretty solid choices for the rookie of the year awards. When RG3 and Bruce Irvin are collecting their trophies I won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

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Jan 7, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) huddles with teammates Bernard Scott (28), Andre Smith (71) and Mike McGlynn (66) during the AFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. The Texans defeated the Bengals 31-10. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

We’ve heard a lot this offeseason about the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens being in a rebuilding phase. We’ve also heard a lot about the improvements being made by the Cleveland Browns. What we haven’t heard much about is the team I believe is poised to make a jump to being a perennial playoff team – the Cincinnati Bengals.

When I look at this team I see a franchise that has been liberated from their past. Look at some of the names that are gone from this team in the since the beginning of the 2010 season – Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson, Nate Livings, Dhani Jones, Keith Rivers, Chris Crocker, Roy Williams. Among that list of just a few that have moved on we see a bunch of players who while productive in the past had been dragging this team down and it is obvious that team management is actively seeking to promote youth.

While the Steelers and Ravens have been getting rid of veteran players there is a major difference – those two teams have been waiting to do so and are just at the beginning of the process. Both of those teams will need a year and maybe longer to rebuild into the powerhouses they once were and as we have seen from other teams around the league it can take many many years for this to happen as shown by the once proud Buffalo Bills and the only recently rejuvenated Green Bay Packers.

Unlike their AFC North competition, the Cincinnati Bengals are at the point where their rebuilding is almost complete. Team owners have been patient in allowing the coaching staff led by Marvin Lewis to do the job of fixing the team and looking at the current roster it appears that patience will soon be rewarded.

On offense this team looks very balanced with capable but not necessarily spectacular players all over the park. 2011 draft picks quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green have quickly built a very good chemistry and impressed in their rookie campaigns so as they develop further we can expect that partnership to only become stronger and more productive. The team has more talented youth in the passing game in 2010 draft picks tight end Jermaine Gresham and slot receiver Jordan Shipley and also the most recent addition wide receiver Mohammed Sanu from Rutgers who looks to be the team’s possession receiver.

The running back position looks very encouraging also with young free agent Benjarvus Green-Ellis brought in to replace Benson and some very solid depth behind him in Brian Leonard, Bernard Scott and rookie Dan Herron. Then there is the offensive line that while filled with players that are relatively unknown to casual fans are rock solid in their jobs led by center Kyle Cook who is quietly establishing himself as one of the best centers in the NFL.

On defense, the Bengals appear to be filled with young talent that are emerging as defensive stars of the future. This is one of those defenses that is filled with role-players who won’t stun you with their above average play but rather will knit together as a unit to support their offense and get the job done. Rey Maualuga leads the defense at MLB and although there are questions as to whether he is suited to that role or should be moved back to the outside it has to be said that his production has been very good. The defensive line has been given an influx of youth in recent years with players like Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins and the Bengals reaffirmed that stance by drafting two very solid defensive tackles this year in Devon Still and Brandon Thompson.

In the secondary there is still some veteran experience here with Nate Clements still around but this isn’t likely to last long as the team drafted the highly talented Dre Kirkpatrick who is expected to take the job sooner rather than later and will hopefully learn from Clements along the way. The team will also have the uber-talented Leon Hall making a welcome return after his season-ending injury last year that had a severe impact on the team’s pass defense as Hall was the lynchpin of the secondary. I fully expect this unit to perform a lot better than the numbers they had in 2011.

When you look at both sides of the ball the Cincinnati Bengals are a team on the up and up with plenty of youth and most importantly plenty of talented depth. Their schedule looks pretty good too as they open the season with the Ravens, Browns, Redskins, Jaguars, Dolphins, Browns again and finally the Steelers before a well placed week 8 bye. The second half is a bit tougher as they face the rest of the NFC East and have return matches against the Ravens and Steelers but they also get the entire AFC West so there’s a possibility the Bengals could start with 6 or 7 wins before the bye and then finish with at least 6 more. So yeah – I’ve got a strong feeling this is a 12 win team.

All in all this is a team I like a lot and I’m expecting them to easily win the AFC North with at least 12 wins. When it happens I won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

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September 18, 2011; New Orleans, LA, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) waits for an offensive series to start on the sidelines against the New Orleans Saints during the second half at the Louisiana Superdome. The Saints defeated the Bears 30-13. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

We’ve all heard it before that Jay Cutler could be a great player if only he could put it all together. We all remember that one great year in Denver when he set the NFL on fire and became considered a “franchise quarterback in waiting”. Fast-track to 2012 and no-one is really saying that anymore. When people talk about Jay Cutler now, they talk about either his unwillingness to play through injury, his lack of leadership skills or his inability to make plays when it counts.

In recent times, the Chicago Bears have begun to look like a playoff team again. In particular, their defense has been keeping them going and have been given much of the credit for the Bears success. Many have accredited the failure for Chicago to capitalise on these good times to Cutler. I want to suggest to all of you that Cutler was not the culprit. Instead, I am pointing the finger right at his former offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

When Mike Martz became the Bears offensive coordinator back in 2010, everyone believed this was going to be the move that helps Cutler get to the top. We all looked back at The Greatest Show On Turf and thought that the way Martz elevated Kurt Warner from grocery store stockman to NFL superstar would do wonders for Cutler.

The hope of Chicago Bears fans died pretty quickly as the offense struggled to adapt to Martz’s complicated offensive gameplan. The Martz system was known for it’s complex nature and a lot of the blame for it’s failure has been placed on Jay Cutler for being unable to run the scheme effectively. I’d like to suggest that the reason that the Bears offense couldn’t function properly with Martz’s playbook was twofold – firstly because their personnel wasn’t really suited to it but secondly because Martz refused to allow any flexibility to the way he did things to the point where Cutler reported said ”Tell him I said fuck him!” in a game against the Minnesota Vikings in 2011.

There’s another NFL coach known for stubbornly sticking to his offensive system – Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan. When the Redskins drafted Robert Griffin III this year, many pundits proclaimed that Washington wouldn’t improve very quickly because of Shanahan’s unwillingness to change his scheme. Shanahan has since responded by saying he will be making changes because he recognises that RG3 is a franchise quarterback and “when you’ve got one of them you have to adapt the way you do things to suit their skills”. Had Martz done this with Cutler then we may well have seen better success from the Chicago offense.

This year, Mike Martz is out and the combination of Mike Tice and Jeremy Bates is in. Tice may be the offensive coordinator but his expertise is with the offensive line and from recent comments made by Cutler it sounds like it is Bates coming up with the offensive plays. Cutler had some very complimentary things to say about the change:

“I think Jeremy has a really good feel for what I like to do and what I don’t like to do. There were plays out here today (where) I told them, ‘I don’t like them. Let’s think about getting rid of them.’ (Bates is) fine with that and Tice is fine with that. So it’s a give and take, and that’s a breath of fresh air around here (since Martz left); being able to give ideas.”

I have a great deal of confidence that Jay Cutler has what it takes to became the franchise quarterback the Bears traded for in 2009. It’s obvious he’s now a lot more relaxed than he was under Martz and his history with Jeremy Bates helps matters a lot – Bates was on the Broncos coaching staff and calling offensive plays when Cutler had his Pro Bowl year in 2008. There’s also the point that Cutler has now been reunited with former teammate wide receiver Brandon Marshall especially given that Bates was not only a quarterbacks coach in Denver but also coached wide receivers including Marshall. The Cutler-Marshall combo was deadly in 2008 and I firmly believe that chemistry can be reignited this season.

There may be a lot of competition for Pro Bowl spots at QB in the NFC but there’s hope for Chicago fans. When Jay Cutler makes the Pro Bowl I won’t be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

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November 21, 2010; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) huddles with his teammates before the start of their game against the Seattle Seahawks at the Louisiana Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook - US PRESSWIRE

This is You Heard It Here First – where thinking outside the box and predicting the future is a social pastime.

Since news of the bounty scandal broke, there has been a lot of criticism sent the way of the New Orleans Saints and I have been among those who have come down hard against the actions of players and coaching staff on this team. Add to that the story of General Manager Mickey Loomis supposedly spying on the opposition and this maelstrom surrounding this team has been as intense as any in recent memory.

With that being said, we’re kidding ourselves if we think this team is going away without a fight.

I hear all the talk of the Saints throwing away this season and being a bad team. I hear all the discussion of the impact of losing Sean Payton and Jonathan Vilma. I’m well aware that contract negotiations with Drew Brees appear to be going nowhere. Yet I will go on the record and say that I truly believe this team is fully capable of making the playoffs and could even contend for another Super Bowl.

First of all, I doubt Drew Brees remains unsigned going into the season. Either he will sign his restricted free agent tender or a new deal will be done. Not only is Drew Brees just too valuable to this team for them to do without him but also Brees himself realises that he may be approaching the end of his career and as such he needs to make as much of an impression on the game as he can while he still can. Both sides of this negotiation have a big need to get a resolution and given time this will eventually bring them together for a deal.

This brings me to the second problem – the absence of Sean Payton. Drew Brees is a big factor here too. Let me ask you something – who’s running the offense in Denver this year? Correct – Peyton Manning. No-one cares who the offensive coordinator is because everyone knows that’s Peyton’s team to run. The same goes for Brees and the Saints offense – Payton may be the brains of the operation but Brees knows the business inside out and should have no trouble working with what coaching staff are available to run the offense.

On defense, new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is as good a defensive coordinator as there is in the NFL and he should be able to manage his duties just fine without a head coach’s input – especially when you consider he was a head coach himself just last season.

This pivots nicely to the third major issue – the loss for the season of linebacker Jonathan Vilma and the four game suspension of defensive end Will Smith. First of all let me outline this – New Orleans lost only two players. I say this because I want to remind all of you that there were 27 players found in the Bountygate inquiry to have been involved. Some of these players moved on – including other suspended players Anthony Hargrove and Scott Fujita – but the fact that the Saints have only lost Smith and Vilma should be considered something of a blessing.

You then look at the players the Saints obtained in free agency. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne have both played middle linebacker to a high level for a long time and either could easily take over for Vilma although it is likely that Lofton will be the guy there. Vilma is a very special player and as smart a defensive general as there is but Lofton is as good a substitute as you could possibly hope for.With these two terrific linebackers joining the team and not only bringing production but also strong leadership New Orleans should be just fine. Also, don’t forget that this is a defense in transition as they move on from Gregg Williams’ system to that of Steve Spagnuolo so the impact is even less.

Now that we’ve looked at the issues coming from the Saints offseason, let’s discuss the positives of this organisation.

First of all, this team has arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. It was thought they would suffer a huge hit if they lost guard Carl Nicks to free agency – and they did – but obtaining Baltimore Ravens guard Ben Grubbs more than makes up for this loss. Some may look at this line and say they have a big weakness in the middle but center Brian De La Puente has risen up since replacing Olin Kreutz at the position last season and was re-signed to an exclusive rights contract this offseason – he’s only going to get better and he’s pretty good now.

The offense as a whole is relatively unchanged apart from the departure of wide receiver Robert Meachem. Colston, Graham, Moore and Henderson are a pretty good collection of receivers and the offense is one that involves spreading the ball a lot anyway so Meachem’s loss isn’t that big. Incoming rookie Nick Toon is the type of physical but crisp route runner who will fit into this system nicely. This is essentially the same offense that got Drew Brees the all-time passing record previously held by Dan Marino and I see no reason to doubt they’ll be anything but great this season.

As a whole, the Saints is a team that is still very powerful and will likely still make the playoffs despite all the distractions off the field. When this happens, I will not be surprised and now neither will you because You Heard It Here First.

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