Fantasy Football Rookie Stock Watch: Risers and fallers from 2020 NFL Draft

Which rookies’ fantasy football stock rose and whose fell after the 2020 NFL Draft?

In past articles, I outlined my pre-NFL Draft fantasy football rookie rankings for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. These gave a good gauge of how to rate these prospects from a pure talent perspective, irrespective of the teams and offenses they’d eventually find themselves in.

Now that the dust has settled from the NFL Draft, we can effectively analyze the impact of landing spots on their draft stocks in fantasy football. We’ve taken the liberty of throwing in a few other high-rising rookies for good measure.

After all, I know you have questions: Who’ll be falling down fantasy football rankings as a result of competition from rookies? Conversely, which veteran players should be creeping up cheat sheets since their teams stayed pat at their positions?

In future articles, I’ll go division-by-division to examine the rising and falling fortunes of established, rostered, and salaried veterans. Just like board games that families play when WiFi goes down, we’ll let the youngest go first.

Fantasy Football rookie quarterback risers, fallers and rankings

We start with the position that has experienced the least amount of volatility. Despite rumors of all kinds, the consensus Top Three quarterbacks were drafted in the consensus order, by the consensus teams: Joe Burrow to the Cincinnati Bengals, Tua Tagovailoa to the Miami Dolphins, and Justin Herbert to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Chalky chalk-chalk. Yay! How exciting. Excuse me while I rouse an aging Ric Flair from his nap for a half-hearted “woo.”

The rest of our board also went in order, though not to the teams we expected. Jordan Love, our fourth-ranked quarterback, was the fourth quarterback selected; we just didn’t see the Green Bay Packers in his future.

Dynasty owners have to like the value stashes of Love and Jacob Eason, our fifth-ranked quarterback, who was selected fifth by the Indianapolis Colts. These two youngsters with undeniable physical gifts will serve as apprentices to Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers, respectively.

One surprise was the Buffalo Bills’ selection of Georgia Bulldogs signal-caller Jake Fromm, who many thought would end up in Foxboro battling Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer for the New England Patriots job.

The other shocker was the Philadelphia Eagles’ second-round selection of former Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Jalen Hurts; as a card-carrying Carson Wentz truther, I’m still scratching my head over that one.

Add it all up, and there were few changes of note to the fantasy football fortunes of rookie quarterbacks. Now that the boring stuff is out of the way, let’s post our current rookie quarterback rankings for dynasty leaguers and get right to the main event: running backs and wide receivers.

1. Joe Burrow, CIN
2. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
3. Justin Herbert, LAC
4. Jordan Love, GB
5. Jacob Eason, IND
6. Jalen Hurts, PHI
7. Jake Fromm, BUF

Fantasy Football rookie running back risers, fallers and rankings

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the only running back selected in the first round, so he went from being an afterthought in many people’s minds to the top rookie available at any position, thanks to his juicy landing spot in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. No team takes a running back in the first round to make him a member of a committee, especially a squad as shrewd as the defending Super Bowl champions.

“CEH” was the number three running back on my board prior to the draft. Jonathan Taylor, taken by the Colts on the heels of an eye-popping NFL Combine performance that reinforced highlight reels from a storied college career at Wisconsin, was fourth in our rankings.

The Salem, NJ native is now a consensus top-two running back, leaping all the way up to first on my board. However, neither appears as high on my overall rankings as top rookie running backs in past years: both players have capable incumbents to show them the ropes. And with OTAs being online instead of live, both players miss out on key reps and may need to be eased into action as the season progresses.

More from NFL Spin Zone

• Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
• Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
• Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
• Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
• Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens

That said, Cam Akers (previously ranked fifth) is as good a bet as anyone to finish the 2020 season as the top rookie running back. Not only does he inherit a key role in a prolific Los Angeles Rams offense, he lacks sufficient competition to keep him out of a lead back role…unless Darrell Henderson made a believer out of you last year.

J.K. Dobbins, our second-rated running back before the NFL Combine in February, maintains his status as an elite running back prospect in keeper and dynasty leagues. However, his redraft value takes a slight hit, as the newly-minted member of the Baltimore Ravens backfield looks to share touches with established veteran Mark Ingram in 2020.

Other running backs on the rise include Tampa Bay Buccaneers third-round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who’ll be given ample opportunity to succeed in a system in which Ronald Jones has disappointed. Vanderbilt’s Vaughn was highly productive on one of the SEC’s worst teams against one of college football’s tougher schedules.

A pair of ACC products, Boston College’s A.J. Dillon and Maryland’s Anthony McFarland Jr., are sneaky buy-low options given the contract situations of Aaron Jones and James Conner, respectively. The  Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers have some potentially expensive decisions to make on the running back front next offseason, so they’ll want to see what they have in their shiny new toys.

On the flip side of the proverbial coin, we find D’Andre Swift’s bust. Wait — Swift is supremely talented, so I didn’t mean to use that word, even if every lead running back for the Detroit Lions since Barry Sanders pretty much fits that bill to date. Kerryon Johnson’s no slouch either when healthy, and he’s in a contract year, so the former top-ranked running back from Georgia has slipped all the way down to fifth.

Only Zack Moss, once my sixth-ranked running back, saw his fortunes fall as far after the NFL Combine and Draft. He ended up on a team with an offensive philosophy that suits his talents, but the presence of Devin Singletary and Josh Allen’s prolific legs in the Bills’ scheme dramatically caps the upside of the former Utah standout.

Updated dynasty rookie running back rankings:

1. Jonathan Taylor, IND (it’s very close; I go back-and-forth)
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
3. J.K. Dobbins, BAL
4. Cam Akers, LAR (closer to Dobbins than you might think)
5. D’Andre Swift, DET
6. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB
7. A.J. Dillon, GB
8. Anthony McFarland, PIT
9. Zack Moss, BUF
10. Antonio Gibson, WAS

Fantasy Football rookie wide receiver risers, fallers and rankings

Of the seven prospects we highlighted back in February, Jalen Reagor saw the biggest lift in value after being selected in the first round by the receiver-starved Eagles. Reagor has a built-in mentor in the form of DeSean Jackson, and the Eagles’ offense is perfectly suited for his talents.

With Reagor in the fold, Carson Wentz will be able to challenge defenses vertically in ways he hasn’t since he targeted Jackson nine times in Week 1. Before succumbing to injury that day, the veteran wideout burned the Washington Redskins for 154 yards and a pair of touchdowns on eight catches.

Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb were ranked No. 1 and 2, respectively, in my pre-draft rankings. They were close in value then, and remain so today; they’ve switched places in my rankings, though they remain nary a hair apart.

Lamb could unseat Michael Gallup as the WR2 in an electric Dallas Cowboys offense by mid-season, and it wouldn’t be a total surprise if he outperformed Amari Cooper someday and took over as the franchise’s go-to guy. Meanwhile, Jeudy should line up opposite Courtland Sutton, a symbiotic pairing that should benefit both budding Denver Broncos stars.

Tee Higgins, my third-ranked wide receiver prior to the NFL Combine, breaks into the NFL along with his new quarterback, Burrow. A.J. Green and John Ross are not long for the Bengals’ long-term roster, so a lack of pre-existing chemistry to any incumbent receiver could go a long way towards helping the two rookies establish an impressive on-field rapport from day one.

Like Higgins, Henry Ruggs, the first wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft, slips just one spot in our rankings. I took a lot of heat for ranking Ruggs over Reagor and I felt vindicated for about 24-48 hours — before the Las Vegas Raiders proceeded to select underrated prospects Bryan Edwards and Lynn Bowden, Jr.

The former has first-round skills, while the latter should catch passes out of the backfield as often as he will out of the slot or out wide. They join a healthy Tyrell Williams and a dependable, underrated slot receiver in the form of Hunter Renfrow, a collection of weapons who should siphon potential targets away from Ruggs, a do-it-all talent who’s been saddled with the lazy “one-trick pony” stereotype by analysts who don’t realize just how good his hands really are.

Justin Jefferson also slides down a notch, from fourth to fifth. The LSU product emerged from the shadows of a cast of talented teammates and turned heads during the Tigers’ march to a National Championship.

He’ll consume the vast majority of targets left behind by Stefon Diggs, and should compliment Adam Thielen well while benefiting from steadier-than-you-think quarterback play from Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. Jefferson is pigeon-holed as a slot receiver by analysts who hone in on his college usage, yet he’s got the size, quickness, and route-running ability to line up out wide:

Other high risers include Van Jefferson, who’ll compete with Josh Reynolds for the WR3 role in a potent Rams offense, and Michael Pittman, Jr., who could be a day one starter for the Colts opposite T.Y. Hilton. Of all players ranked outside the top seven, these two enjoyed the biggest lifts of any rookie wide receivers.

Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk still bears watching, as he adds a new dimension to the aerial attack for the defending NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, Denzel Mims should be able to take advantage of mismatches in a sustainable role on the New York Jets, a neutral landing spot for the 6-3 standout from Baylor.

Not everyone saw their draft day stocks rise or stay high. Laviska Shenault, our sixth-ranked receiver in February, slipped all the way to tenth after being taken by the Jacksonville Jaguars, an organization that has become about as dysfunctional as an episode of Tiger King.

The Jags have hinted at using Shenault as a “swiss-army knife,” but that’s more or less code for, “we don’t have a steady role in mind for him.” All is not lost for the Colorado Buffalo, however; his immense upside makes still him an attractive target in the mid-to-late second round of dynasty rookie drafts.

Meanwhile, the luster of Tyler Johnson has somehow worn off now that he’ll be dressed in pewter. Sure, he’ll be in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense led by Tom Brady, but the Minnesota product will fight incumbents Scott Miller and Justin Watson for a role as a fourth option (at best) in a passing game featuring Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, third-down back Dare Ogunbowale, rookie running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn, O.J Howard and newly-added tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Another Big Ten wide receiver, K.J. Hamler, saw his fantasy football stock slip significantly on Draft Day. Hamler figures to be the fourth option at best behind Jeudy, Sutton and tight end Noah Fant on a Broncos team that likes to run the football.

Updated dynasty rookie wide receiver rankings:

1. CeeDee Lamb, DAL (by a nose)
2. Jerry Jeudy, DEN
3. Jalen Reagor, PHI
4. Tee Higgins, CIN
5. Henry Ruggs, LVR
6. Justin Jefferson, MIN
7. Denzel Mims, NYJ
8. Michael Pittman Jr., IND
9. Brandon Aiyuk, SF
10. Laviska Shenault, JAX
11. Bryan Edwards, LVR
12. Van Jefferson, LAR

Fantasy Football rookie tight end risers, fallers and rankings

The rookie tight end who saw the largest lift in his fantasy football stock after the NFL Draft was UCLA product Devin Asiasi, taken in the third round by the Patriots. The transfer from the University of Michigan was an afterthought in a fairly weak tight end crop, and was absent from many pre-draft rankings, my own included.

Asiasi now has our attention, as he has arguably the clearest path to playing time of any rookie tight end. He’ll battle fellow rookie Dalton Keane and a host of underwhelming veterans for the opportunity to start in Week 1 for the Patriots.

Cole Kmet sat atop the seven tight ends we ranked back in March. He stays atop our rankings for now, despite finding himself mired in a logjam of several Chicago Bears tight ends. At one point, he was one of ten tight ends on the roster; his toughest competiton now comes in the form of Jimmy Graham, a former Pro Bowler in the twilight of his career who hasn’t been relevant for fantasy purposes since 2017.

Adam Trautman of Dayton rises from third to second in our rankings on the heels of his selection by the New Orleans Saints. Trautman possesses rare athleticism for the position, which he put on display at the NFL Combine:

Missouri’s Albert Okwuegbunam was reunited with his college quarterback on draft day, and if it weren’t for the presence of Noah Fant, he’d be higher in our rankings than he already is. Yet, as the fastest tight end at the combine, it’s not hard to envision the Broncos employing more 12 personnel to give Drew Lock ample opportunities to sync up with his former teammate.

LSU playoff hero Thaddeus Moss, who finished just outside our rankings prior to the draft, got a lift by signing as an undrafted free agent with the Washington Redskins. Not only does Moss have a great shot of making the roster, he has a legitimate opportunity to become the starter.

Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic’s Harrison Bryant, our second-ranked tight end, tumbles down our rankings after being drafted in the fourth round by the Cleveland Browns. It’s hard to imagine a worse landing spot after the team threw a bunch of money at Austin Hooper in free agency, but talent finds a way; the fact that the Browns spent a bit of draft capital on him offers a glimmer of hope…

Brycen Hopkins of Purdue also drops a few spots, and I wasn’t overly high on him, to begin with. It’s not hard to envision him beating out Gerald Everett as the Rams’ TE2, but he’ll have a tough path to targets behind Tyler Higbee and a solid wide receiving corps led by Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.

Hopkins now ranks behind Packers rookie Josiah Deguara on my list, an agile Cincinnatti prospect. However, the Rams rookie is notched just above Hunter Bryant, as the former Washington Husky will have a hard time making a splash as an undrafted rookie free agent for the Detroit Lions.

Updated dynasty rookie tight end rankings:

1. Cole Kmet, CHI
2. Adam Trautman, NO
3. Devin Asiasi, NE
4. Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN
5. Thaddeus Moss, WAS
6. Harrison Bryant, CLE
7. Josiah Deguara, GB
8. Brycen Hopkins, LAR
9. Hunter Bryant, DET
10. Colby Parkinson, SEA

In the coming days and weeks, we’ll turn our attention to established, rostered NFL players and examine their fantasy football fortunes. Stay tuned as we go division-by-division to highlight the risers and fallers, starting with the NFC.