Early over/under NFL record predictions for all 32 teams mid-offseason.
Now that the bulk of NFL free agency and the 2020 NFL Draft are in the rearview, every fan is pining for the regular season to arrive. Of course, as minicamps have been put on hold and as training camps, the preseason and the regular season itself could be altered by the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s hard to know precisely what everyone is looking forward to. But that doesn’t stop the NFL predictions from flowing.
For the most part, we now know what all 32 NFL rosters are going to look like. There will surely be more moves to come with guys like Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Ryan still yet to sign and with roster cuts coming down the line. On the whole, though, we have a good bearing on these teams, good enough to make some NFL record predictions, in a way, for the 2020 season.
Looking at the NFL over/under win totals provided by Points Bet, via The Action Network, we’re making record predictions for all 32 teams in the 2020 season by picking whether they go over or under what the oddsmakers have their total at. We start with the AFC East going division-by-division.
AFC East Over/Under Predictions
Buffalo Bills – 9 Wins
The Buffalo Bills should be the favorites to win the AFC East in 2020 as they came close to doing so last year and now have worse competition at the top of the division. This, of course, depends on Josh Allen continuing to progress as a passer now that he has Stefon Diggs and more weapons on offense. Even with questions at quarterback, the defense and framework of this team should carry them to 10 wins. Prediction: Over
Miami Dolphins – 6.5 Wins
With a roster that was torn down to the studs and that many people thought would go 0-16, head coach Brian Flores led the Dolphins to a five-win season. Now they have Tua Tagovailoa and a much-improved defense in addition to young pieces on the offensive line. The rebuild isn’t complete but it’s hard for me to think Flores can’t get this group to 7-9. Prediction: Over
New England Patriots – 9 Wins
This will make you throw your hands up in the air and flip flop more than anything else. Jarrett Stidham is a complete unknown and so too are Bill Belichick’s Patriots without their Hall-of-Fame quarterback of the last two decades. So do you give the coach and defense the benefit of the doubt or just admit that there are too many questions to have optimism? I fall into the latter category. Prediction: Under
New York Jets – 7 Wins
Why the Jets are getting an over/under total of seven wins is beyond me. Yes, they improved the offensive line but they didn’t create a unit that’s going to consistently dominate. Furthermore, the defense remains a viable concern, especially with their inability to generate a pass rush. Oh, and Adam Gase is still the head coach and we’re still not sure how good Sam Darnold is. This is an easy under for me. Prediction: Under
NFC East Over/Under Predictions
Dallas Cowboys – 9.5 Wins
Yes, the Dallas Cowboys not getting to work in-person with new head coach Mike McCarthy is not a positive. At the same time, the talent on this team remains in the elite tier of the league. They should be a double-digit team with a marginal coaching upgrade, which I believe they made. Bonus points if they are able to work out a long-term contract with Dak Prescott before the July 15 deadline to avoid that distraction as well. Prediction: Over
New York Giants – 6.5 Wins
There’s no question that the Giants offensive line was an issue for Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley last year and, in a couple of ways, New York has remedied those issues. At the same time, Big Blue’s defense was awful last season and I don’t see a clear path to how they are much better in the 2020 season, which will prove to be their downfall on many occasions. Prediction: Under
Philadelphia Eagles – 9.5 Wins
Few teams caused me the problems in this exercise like the Philadelphia Eagles. At this point, especially after the Jalen Hurts selection, it’s hard for me to believe in the health of Carson Wentz and, even if they drafted a first-round wide receiver, that group still leaves me lukewarm. The defense is improved but there are still secondary and linebacker holes. This might be unpopular but I’m saying this is a 9-7 team. Prediction: Under
Washington Redskins – 5.5 Wins
Full disclosure, I’m not a Dwayne Haskins believer, which is obviously going to color my perception of this team. Even if I was, however, the offensive line concerns me and the wide receivers even more so. Throw in a secondary that has a ton of question marks and it seems to me that Ron Rivera and a new regime have a lot of work to do before this team is winning six or more games in the future. Prediction: Under
AFC North Over/Under Predictions
Baltimore Ravens – 11.5 Wins
There’s a good chance that Lamar Jackson isn’t as breathtaking as he was en route to winning MVP. Many people will use that to say the Ravens will regress. However, the rest of this roster has made improvements as they have more rushing weapons, defensive improvements and Jackson hopefully improving as a passer with young receivers developing as well. Baltimore won 14 games last season and even docking them two games from that still hits the over. Prediction: Over
Cincinnati Bengals – 5.5 Wins
I’m a Joe Burrow believer and, in truth, also a believer that the Cincinnati Bengals aren’t as far away from competing as people expect them to be. Having said that, the offensive line has glaring issues and the defense falls into the same category. So while they may take a step forward from 2-14 last season, it won’t be a four-game jump that they need for this line. Prediction: Under
Cleveland Browns – 8.5 Wins
The 2020 offseason feels like everyone is mad at the Cleveland Browns and, well, it’s not hard to see why. So many people bought into the hype for Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr. and so on last season and Freddie Kitchens then helmed an unmitigated disaster. But now that Kevin Stefanski is taking over for Kitchens and with the offensive line improved, I think the Browns prove to be a team that the public was simply a year early on crowning. Prediction: Over
Pittsburgh Steelers – 9.5 Wins
Don’t understate the accomplishment of the Pittsburgh Steelers that they almost made the playoffs last season with one of the worst offenses in the league. Maybe the defense doesn’t play at the elite level that they did in 2019 this season but Ben Roethlisberger returning to helm the offense is massively important as this group should be a 10-win club. Prediction: Over
NFC North Over/Under Predictions
Chicago Bears – 8 Wins
The Chicago Bears defense deserves immense credit for carrying this team into playoff contention last year with how bad Mitchell Trubisky is. Unfortunately, it’s either Trubisky or Nick Foles at quarterback in the 2020 NFL season and neither of those players is going to do this team any favors. In what will be the end of Ryan Pace and maybe Matt Nagy, the Bears go under .500. Prediction: Under
Detroit Lions – 6.5 Wins
Matt Patricia’s tenure in the Motor City has not lived up to the hype of the New England defensive genius taking over a team. They’ve been in the cellar of the NFC North, which Matthew Stafford’s injury woes haven’t helped, but the rest of the team has just looked a tier below the rest of their division. And the simple truth is that I don’t see that changing in a meaningful way in 2020. Prediction: Under
Green Bay Packers – 9 Wins
Few teams had as frustrating and confusing of an offseason as the Green Bay Packers. They used free agency to downgrade at right tackle and add another question mark at linebacker. Oh yeah, their one response at wide receiver, their biggest need, in free agency and the draft was signing Devin Funchess. But despite all of that, if you give me the chance to take a team that won 13 games last season to only need 10 wins to get them over, I’m taking it. Prediction: Over
Minnesota Vikings – 9 Wins
Talk about a facelift. The Minnesota Vikings overhauled their defense this offseason on the line and in the secondary and also traded Stefon Diggs and replaced him with rookie Justin Jefferson. Maybe that will add up to a net win as they needed some changes to take a step forward and, given the ceiling we saw from them last season, that’s what I’m buying into. Prediction: Over
AFC South Over/Under Predictions
Houston Texans – 8 Wins
Bill O’Brien the head coach has been far superior to Bill O’Brien the general manager — that’s an inarguable distinction at this point. But at the same time, all the moves that he’s made at GM are going to cause the Texans to pay a bill at some point and I think the DeAndre Hopkins trade might be that tipping point. I’m projecting a precipitous downfall in Houston. Prediction: Under
Indianapolis Colts – 9 Wins
Philip Rivers gives the Colts a clear and obvious upgrade at cornerback while the team used the draft to improve their wide receiver corps and backfield. To summarize, I love this offense. The defense, however, does give me some pause — even with DeForest Buckner joining the club. I have enough faith in the offense and defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to give Indianapolis the benefit of the doubt at the end of the day. Prediction: Over
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5 Wins
There’s no need to mince words with the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars; it would be a major shock to me if they don’t have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. I’m not sold on Gardner Minshew as a franchise quarterback and the roster as a whole is trying to establish a new identity. This could’ve been at 3.5 and I would’ve still gone under. Prediction: Under
Tennessee Titans – 8.5 Wins
Many are expecting the Tennesse Titans to regress in the 2020 season and it’s not hard to see it. They lost their right tackle, lost their best cornerback, traded away Jurrell Casey and Ryan Tannehill is almost guaranteed to take a step back. But when you factor in that they went 9-7 after starting 2-4 under Marcus Mariota, I think the Titans can still go 9-7 again, which is their honey hole. Prediction: Over
NFC South Over/Under Predictions
Atlanta Falcons – 7.5 Wins
Which team is the real Atlanta Falcons — the group that started the year at 1-7 or the group that finished the year at 6-2 a season ago? With Todd Gurley joining Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. on offense, that side of the ball should be fine. However, I remain concerned about this defense and am torn between 7-8 wins. With pessimism ruling, seven feels safer. Prediction: Under
Carolina Panthers – 5.5 Wins
Matt Rhule takes over the Carolina Panthers this season and, outside of Christian McCaffrey, this is largely a completely different roster. The ceiling of Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback leaves me a bit skeptical and, though there is now a ton of young talent on the defense thanks to the draft, that unit is still being built. It’s a low total but the Panthers will be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Prediction: Under
New Orleans Saints – 10.5 Wins
It’s been like clockwork that the New Orleans Saints have owned the NFC South over the last couple of years and, frankly, it’d be foolish to think that they won’t at least stay in that position. Yes, they’ll have a bit more competition in the division in the 2020 season. However, Drew Brees and this offense will still get to at least 11 wins. Prediction: Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 10 Wins
Few teams have been in the headlines this offseason quite like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That, of course, starts with landing quarterback Tom Brady in free agency. With Brady in tow, the Bucs were then able to trade for Rob Gronkowski, luring him out of retirement, and then kill the draft. Even with offseason workouts shortened, I’m all in on the Bucs being a double-digit win team in the 2020 season. Prediction: Over
AFC West Over/Under Predictions
Denver Broncos – 7.5 Wins
After the draft as the Broncos selected Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler with their first two selections, the hype for a breakout in Denver has reached a fever pitch. And there are things to like with this team as the defense should be back on track and the new weapons on offense are impressive. Call me a downer though, because I’m not buying five games of Drew Lock just yet. He could burn me and that’d be fine but I’ll take my chances for now. Prediction: Under
Kansas City Chiefs – 11.5 Wins
The defending Super Bowl champions are tied with the Ravens for the highest NFL over/under win total and that’s the way it should be. Kansas City was a 12-win team last season and that’s with Patrick Mahomes missing time.
Now, the Chiefs offense is potentially even better than it was a season ago while the defense may still not be great but can still get the job done well enough to let the offense thrive. It’s hard to imagine the champs don’t at least match their win total from last year. Prediction: Over
Las Vegas Raiders – 7.5 Wins
Questionable draft picks aside, I don’t hate what the Las Vegas Raiders are building. Jon Gruden clearly has a vision and hasn’t lost a step as a head coach, which gives me some confidence moving forward.
Having said that, there are still concerns about this defense as it’s still coming into its own. Furthermore, Derek Carr is still the quarterback and, in a loaded division, I’m not sure how many wins Carr can actually lead this team to. Under 7.5 wins shouldn’t be fully indicative of where this team is heading. Prediction: Under
Los Angeles Chargers – 8 Wins
Few teams have enjoyed as successful of an offseason as the Chargers. Of course, the elephant in the room is that the team is planning to start Tyrod Taylor at quarterback as rookie Justin Herbert doesn’t appear ready to start. What ceiling that puts on them gives me some pause. However, I’m choosing to believe in the overall roster talent, which should push Los Angeles to nine wins. Prediction: Over
NFC West Over/Under Predictions
Arizona Cardinals – 7 Wins
In truth, I’m a bit surprised that the line for the Arizona Cardinals isn’t higher than seven wins. After Kyler Murray showed some really nice things as a rookie and with the team adding DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, this team has some buzz. Unfortunately, the line is at 7.0, which is right where I have the Red Birds finishing. Because of a defense that’s still a work-in-progress, I’ll take the under but not with much confidence. Prediction: Under
Los Angeles Rams – 8.5 Wins
Why are we supposed to buy the Rams as a team that could go over .500 in the 2020 season? After jettisoning Todd Gurley this offseason and trading Branding Cooks, an offense that took a step back in 2019 should be worse in 2020 barring Jared Goff showing things we haven’t seen from him.
Throw in the fact that the defense also has holes up front still around Aaron Donald and the Rams are going to truly be in a bind with an 8-8 or worse season. Prediction: Under
San Francisco 49ers – 10.5 Wins
Many people have the San Francisco 49ers as a candidate to regress after representing the NFC in Super Bowl LIV last year and I’m buying that. The defense could take a step back and, even with Kyle Shanahan, they could be slightly lesser on offense than they were a year ago. At the same time, they could win two fewer games than they did a year ago and still hit the over, which seems pretty fair for a Niners team that is still really darn good. Prediction: Over
Seattle Seahawks – 9.5 Wins
Despite how good Russell Wilson is and despite how proven the Seahawks have been with him at quarterback no matter what else is going on with this team, there are concerns with Seattle for me.
The offensive line’s perpetual lukewarm-ness continues and the defensive front is lacking. And there’s a road to me where this team falls around 9-7 or 8-8. Then again, I’m not betting against Wilson and Pete Carroll. Prediction: Over