Looking at NFL MVP odds for 2020 and identifying five great sleeper bets.
In August as the 2019 regular season approached, Lamar Jackson was listed at +5000 in terms of his NFL MVP odds, which was actually improved as he opened at +10000, per CBS Sports. Anyone who bet on that obviously made a big chunk of change as the Baltimore Ravens quarterback went on a record-setting tear and captured the league’s top honors.
As you’d expect, Jackson is no longer a dark horse sleeper to win NFL MVP after that, although he actually isn’t the favorite. He’s currently sitting behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who also won the award in his second season in the league back in 2018. But while we expect those players to again be heavily in the mix, it’s interesting to look for another dark horse who could surge into that conversation.
One trendy NFL MVP sleeper after the goings-on of the 2020 offseason was Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. With a functional and proven head coach and a host of elite offensive weapons, his case is as good as anyone’s. However, given that he has the fourth-best odds according to some, it’s hard to truly call him a dark horse.
Even with Prescott removed from the equation, though, there are still some players that are intriguing in terms of what they could do in the MVP race. Yes, there is some bias in terms of players I particularly believe in but, at the end of the day, there is enough evidence to believe these players could be good bets.
So as we look at the NFL MVP odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook, via The Action Network, in mid-June, let’s take a look at some dark horse candidates who could be great sleeper bets. Put simply, given their talent, situation and potential narrative, there is a path for these players to be named MVP.
5. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans | NFL MVP odds: +5000
By the simple fact that Derrick Henry is not a quarterback, he has to be considered a sleeper bet to win NFL MVP in 2020. Even if his odds weren’t at +5000, the fact that the last seven winners have been signal-callers doesn’t work in the running back’s favor.
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If there is going to be a non-quarterback that wins the award this season, though, Henry is my best bet to be that guy. Part of that is due to his talent and production, both of which are immense. But it’s also relatively easy to paint the narrative for Henry to insert himself into the conversation.
Henry led the NFL in rushing last season, running for 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on 303 carries and also adding 206 receiving yards and two more touchdowns. However, he was even more impressive at the end of the year and in the postseason.
Over his final six regular-season games, Henry rushed for 896 yards and 10 scores on 139 carries. He continued that in three playoff games with 446 yards and two touchdowns on 83 carries. That nine-game stretch also included an incredible four games of 180+ yards and five with over 150 yards.
Though Ryan Tannehill will be asked to push the ball downfield, the Titans offense goes through Henry. If he can hold up for a 16-game season and produce at that type of level, he’s going to tear up the NFL with his rushing. And if that leads Tennessee back to the playoffs, giving him credit by, in turn, giving him MVP love isn’t a difficult thing to see happening.
4. Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts | NFL MVP odds: +6000
For the first time since he was drafted No. 4 overall in 2004, Philip Rivers won’t be suiting up for the Chargers when the 2020 season begins. Los Angeles decided to part ways with their veteran quarterback this offseason given his age and a need for change. That paved the way for Rivers to take his talents to the land of the Horseshoe, signing with the Indianapolis Colts in free agency.
Now, it should be noted that Rivers is coming to Indy off of one of the worst seasons of his prolific career. Yes, he threw for 4,615 yards and completed 66.0 percent of his passes in 2019. But Rivers only threw 23 touchdown passes — his lowest total since 2007 — while throwing 20 interceptions, most of which looked quite bad and downright reckless from the veteran.
Having said that, the situation in Indianapolis couldn’t be more different for Rivers than what he had in Los Angeles. After playing behind a porous offensive line, he’s now going to be protected by one of the best units in the league. Moreover, he has just as many weapons with two talented young running backs along with T.Y. Hilton, breakout candidate Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman Jr.
Moreover, Rivers isn’t stepping into an entirely new situation, even if he’s never played with another team besides the Chargers. His familiarity with Colts head coach Frank Reich and much of the staff gives him as easy of a transition as you could imagine. Subsequently, if he’s not simply showing his age and still has juice in the tank, the stars are aligning for Rivers to catch some people by surprise in a major way.
3. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers | NFL MVP odds: +5000
In the 2018 season, Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing yards (5,129) while throwing for a career-high 34 touchdowns and completing 67 percent of his passes. The veteran quarterback was asked to air it out and he did so with aplomb. His follow-up act last year was not as impressive as injuries limited him to less than two whole games and he spent the majority of the season holding a clipboard.
The quarterback struggles of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2019 campaign were widely noted and, frankly, were the reason that the team fell short of making the playoffs. Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges weren’t good enough to capitalize on an elite defensive performance and, despite injuries to skill-position players, a nice cast of talent on offense as well.
Big Ben is slated to return for the 2020 season, though, and he’s stepping into a great situation. The Steelers defense remains intact and could be dominant once again. Furthermore, JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are healthy now as well and in contract years, ready to prove themselves and help out their bank accounts.
With the situation Roethlisberger is returning to, there’s no reason to believe he can’t recapture some of his 2018 form, assuming health. Granted, his health at this point in his career is no sure thing. But if Big Ben can play all 16 games, can continue airing it out and can lead Pittsburgh to the postseason, he’s going to be a viable MVP candidate.
2. Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns | NFL MVP odds: +3300
On the whole, the Cleveland Browns hype train got out of control coming into the 2019 season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was undeniably at the forefront of that. After taking the league by storm as a rookie with 3,725 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 picks in 14 games — and leading the previously 1-31 Browns to 6-7 as the starter — big things were expected from Mayfield last season.
Big things were not delivered by Mayfield. The statistical output, particularly with his turnovers, was troubling in itself. Mayfield’s completion rate dipped 4.4 percent as he threw for 3,827 yards, 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. This despite Cleveland trading for Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. Mayfield looked uncomfortable and overwhelmed, which is undeniably troubling.
While that may all be true, Mayfield was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason. Moreover, it’s hard to imagine a worse situation than what transpired with the Browns in 2019. The offensive line was disastrous and so too was head coach Freddie Kitchens. As a result, the quarterback was unable to gel with OBJ or in the offense as a whole, a huge reason for why he regressed.
Now that Kevin Stefanski has taken over, now that the offensive line has largely been shored up via free agency and the draft and now that Beckham is healthy and also joined by another big-time weapon in Austin Hooper, the chips are falling for Mayfield to be the player he was drafted to be. If he can get back to form and also lead the Browns back to the playoffs, he’ll get some love as a possible NFL MVP candidate.
1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers | NFL MVP odds: +3000
The Green Bay Packers did Aaron Rodgers precisely zero favors in the 2020 offseason. A team devoid of proven pass-catching weapons or even players with bankable upside in that department came out of free agency and the NFL Draft only adding Devin Funchess as a player of consequence. That’s an absolute travesty for Rodgers and this offense.
At the same time, Rodgers is undeniably coming off a head-scratching 2019 season. Yes, he threw for 4,002 yards and 26 touchdowns with only four interceptions but his overall decision-making and risk-aversion made him a lesser player than we’ve seen him be in the past. And on the surface, it might seem hard to believe that Rodgers would improve given that the Packers got him no help.
If there’s one thing that we’ve seen from the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, however, it’s that he’s a dangerous player when he’s motivated. So as the critics get louder and after the Packers drafted his assumed successor, Jordan Love, in the first round instead of a wide receiver, it’s not a hard leap to make to think that Rodgers will be incredibly motivated.
Rodgers being hungry to prove himself to the public and Green Bay front office could be bad news for the rest of the league. He still has weapons such as Davante Adams and Aaron Jones in tow and could see any of a number of young players finally step up. If that happens and Rodgers is able to spearhead something similar to the 13-3 campaign they enjoyed last season, it’ll be hard to keep the Packers signal-caller out of the NFL MVP conversation.