Trevor Lawrence is worth tanking for in the 2021 NFL Draft.
From the moment Trevor Lawrence arrived at Clemson in 2018 as the No. 1 overall recruit in the class, people expected him to be the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. And now that he’s about to enter his true junior season with the Tigers, that hasn’t changed. Barring a major change from him or his peers, Trevor Lawrence will be the first player to hear his name called in the 2021 NFL Draft.
While the last game Lawrence played, the College Football Playoff National Championship Game against LSU, was arguably the worst of his college career, it was also the first time he’s lost as a starter in college and, actually, in his life. The quarterback’s talent level is unbelievable as he looks as if he was built in a lab to play the position.
Standing at 6-6, Lawrence has the arm strength to make any throw on the field but also has shocking athleticism and agility given his frame. He can take off and move while creating space to throw with his legs as well. He’s gotten better over his two seasons starting, which is saying something for a player who already has a National Championship and a runner-up finish to his credit.
Of course, no college prospect, especially at quarterback, is perfect. Lawrence’s technical approach can get a bit sloppy at times, which is likely a product of him getting by with his talent. Moreover, he’s had to grow in terms of handling pressure and will need to continue to do so. But overall, he’s the QB1 in the 2021 NFL Draft and the type of player that can change an NFL franchise.
Tanking is a dirty word in the NFL but there are certain prospects that are worth tanking — or something close to it — for. And while not every team that could use a franchise-changing quarterback is in a position to tank, there are plenty who should. In particular, these five teams should have eyes on “tanking for Trevor Lawrence” in the 2021 NFL Draft.
5. Detroit Lions
When the Detroit Lions hired head coach Matt Patricia, they did so with the hope that the former Patriots defensive coordinator would be the guy to get the team over the hump after they’d been stuck in 9-7 purgatory with Jim Caldwell. Over the first two seasons of Patricia’s tenure, however, he’s taken the team in the polar opposite direction.
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For me, the 2020 NFL season is make-or-break for Patricia. If he leads the Lions to another top-10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, then he should be shown the door because he’s had enough time to start building things and, as such, they clearly aren’t working. And as they change up the coaching staff, the Lions might be of the mind that it’s time to fully hit the reset button on the franchise, namely by cutting ties with Matthew Stafford.
The 32-year-old Stafford has long been one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. But be it because of his own ability as an NFL quarterback and all that entails beyond talent or be it because of the teams around him, he’s never truly led a successful run in Detroit. And as 2021 is the first year that the Lions can cut or trade him without taking on water in the form of dead cap, maybe they would do that if Stafford either fails to get the team to the postseason or gets hurt again.
If things were to go that way in the Motor City or if they have a mind to part ways with Stafford soon, then Trevor Lawrence would be the player to put them in the best position. It might not be an intentional tank but, as the Bengals proved in landing Joe Burrow, it doesn’t always have to be to land the top quarterback in the draft to carry the franchise into a new era.
4. Chicago Bears
Right out of the gate, it has to be said that it’s going to be hard for the Chicago Bears to truly tank given what we’ve seen from them. Despite the erratic and overall poor play from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears have consistently been in playoff contention thanks to an elite defense and strong overall roster talent. That inherently makes being bad enough to get the No. 1 pick that much more difficult.
While that may be true, it’s also just as true that the Bears would be best-served eyeing the 2020 season as a time to hit the reset button. Yes, they have Khalil Mack and a ton of capital invested in what they’ve built. And you could make the argument that the quarterback is all that’s holding them back from Super Bowl contention.
Trubisky and newcomer Nick Foles, however, are going to keep Chicago in that position for as long as their there with that roster — close but not close enough. But what’s worse is that the Bears’ window is going to close throughout the rest of the team as they waste away as a middling team due to their quarterback play.
Maybe the Bears aren’t capable of tanking in a traditional sense because of that roster. Having said that, they should do everything short of trading Mack and every talented player on the roster to put themselves in position to get Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. With that type of player under center, it could legitimately be the difference between fringe playoff team and Super Bowl winner.
3. Carolina Panthers
Entering the 2020 offseason, it appeared obvious that a full-blown rebuild was in store for the Carolina Panthers. The team hired Matt Rhule as their new head coach, a program builder coming from the college ranks at Baylor. Meanwhile, it was obvious they were prepared to part ways with Cam Newton. Thus, the stage for tearing it all down was set.
Instead, the Panthers signed guys like Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson in free agency before focusing exclusively on defense in the draft. Is that going to be enough for the Panthers to win the loaded NFC South? Almost surely, that won’t be the case. Yet it might be enough to push Carolina out of having a top-five pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Because of their offseason moves that brought in a solid veteran quarterback — for three years, no less — it’s hard to decipher how the Panthers would truly tank for Trevor Lawrence. Having said that, something that we’ll talk about again shortly is that good players on the roster shouldn’t prohibit teams from taking great players.
That applies in Carolina. If Bridgewater is fine but not special and the Panthers, on the whole, struggle in the 2020 season to where they are close enough to make a move for the Clemson quarterback, they need to prepare themselves in every way possible to make that move.
2. New England Patriots
Much like the Bears, the New England Patriots probably have too talented of a defense to put on a full-blown tank in the 2020 season. Unlike the Bears, however, the Patriots are just now entering a period of uncertainty at the quarterback position. Tom Brady is now in Tampa, meaning it’ll be either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer starting under center in New England.
In either case, there is no reason to believe right now that the Patriots have a long-term answer at quarterback. Hoyer is a career backup in terms of talent and doesn’t have a ton left in the tank. Meanwhile, Stidham is a mid-round pick entering his second NFL season. Furthermore, at best, he still has a ton of development left before he’s ready to be considered a franchise player at the position.
While it’s undoubtedly hard to imagine that Bill Belichick would do everything to outright tank a season, especially at this point in his career, he’s come close with his moves this offseason. Despite big losses, even on defense, and despite the flaws that the team had outside of quarterback, they did very little to improve their team from last season.
At the end of the day, the Patriots should be bad enough in 2019, barring Belichick magic, to either take Trevor Lawrence or make a non-crazy move up to get the quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft. And if we’re being honest, a one-year dropoff to transition from Brady to Lawrence would be highly fortunate for those in New England.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Remember when I said that NFL teams would always be wise to remember that good players should not keep them from taking great players? The Jacksonville Jaguars would be extremely wise to remember that moving forward. Because this team is likely going to finish with the NFL’s worst record in the 2020 season, which obviously gives them the best chance at Trevor Lawrence.
Over the past year or so, the Jaguars have been tearing down their roster piece-by-piece. Jacksonville has traded Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell while also cutting ties with several other players. But if there’s one piece that they might feel confident in outside of their rookies and a handful of young defenders, it’s quarterback Gardner Minshew.
That’s where the mantra about good and great players comes into play. Minshew is extremely impressive as a 2019 sixth-round pick who was thrust into action and made more positive things happen for the Jaguars than anyone could’ve expected. But you’d be crazy to pass up a player with Lawrence’s potential for Minshew. After all, there’s a reason he was a sixth-round pick — he’s good but limited.
As of right now, the Jaguars are by far the team in the best position to actually tank for Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. Ironically enough, they are also not the most quarterback-needy team of the five listed here. Having said that, if the Clemson quarterback falls into their lap, they would be absolutely wrong not to take him.