During the 2020 NFL offseason, some players are already receiving too much fantasy football hype.
As we enter the middle of July, it’s time to start planning for the fantasy football season. Every year, thousands of fantasy football team owners wager money and pride in a battle for supremacy. While finding sleeper prospects can lift teams to championships, over-drafting players is one way to lose control of the season quickly.
There are plenty of NFL players receiving too much hype entering the 2020 fantasy season. However, I’ve pulled out 10 of the most egregious offenders and several honorable mentions.
Be careful about drafting these players too high. They’re not worth the risk this year.
Possible Fantasy Football busts: Dishonorable Mentions
John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills
Brown led the Bills in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns last year. Stefon Diggs’ arrival ends Brown’s monopoly in Buffalo. Diggs finished 18th in standard leagues last year while Brown finished 19th. With Diggs taking over the top spot, expect Brown to lose many of his targets and a significant chunk of his production.
Randall Cobb, WR, Houston Texans
After finishing 47th among receivers in standard leagues last year, Cobb finds himself on a new team. While Deshaun Watson is a legitimate top quarterback, don’t put too much stock in Houston’s receivers. They’ve all got injury histories and are highly inconsistent week to week.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Fournette finished 13th in points among running backs in standard leagues last year. However, he set a career-high in games played and only scored three touchdowns despite receiving 341 touches. He might get yards, but he doesn’t score enough to warrant a top pick. Also, expect his receiving numbers to drop after career-highs last year.
Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins
If Guice remains healthy, the Redskins want him as their starter. However, Adrian Peterson showed he’s more than capable of producing decent numbers last season. With no guarantee that Guice ever gets healthy, fantasy owners should draft him with caution.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers finished tenth in fantasy points amongst quarterbacks last season. That’s not bad, but some fans still view him as a top-three fantasy quarterback. That’s not the case anymore. He’s not going to throw for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns in 2020. Expect something closer to 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.
10. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns
It’s not 2016 anymore, and Odell Beckham is no longer a superstar. In the past two seasons, he’s produced 151 receptions for 2,087 yards and ten touchdowns. Those numbers seem decent, but Tyler Boyd has 166 receptions for 2,074 yards and 12 touchdowns during the same time. That’s the statistical company Beckham keeps in 2020.
Last season, Beckham finished 31st in standard leagues with 127.3 points and 25th in points per reception (PPR) leagues with 201.3 points. His teammate, Jarvis Landry, finished 14th in standard leagues with 154.4 points. So, Beckham is no longer a top wide receiver option in fantasy leagues. Fans should stop putting him alongside Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Michael Thomas.
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9. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Earlier, I mentioned that Stefon Diggs’ arrival in Buffalo will lower John Brown’s fantasy value. However, the move could also alter Diggs’ projections. He’s Buffalo’s top receiving threat, but can Josh Allen realistically draw out his full potential? Even if Diggs sees drastically more than the 94 targets he got in Minnesota last year, don’t expect his fantasy value to rise.
In 2019, Diggs posted 149.1 standard league points (18th overall) and 212.1 PPR league points (24th overall), but some fantasy players believe he could crack the top-12 this year. That’s an unrealistic jump for a receiver joining the worst deep-ball passer in the NFL.
Diggs takes a hit by leaving a stable quarterback in Kirk Cousins for a questionable project in Allen. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) even pointed out Allen’s deep-ball issues earlier this offseason, ranking him 32nd on a list of the league’s best deep passers.
According to PFF’s Sam Monson, Allen went deep at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, but “his adjusted completion rate was one of the worst figures in all of football, and he had the highest rate of uncatchable, inaccurate passes on those targets.”
Bottom line, stop pushing Diggs up fantasy boards. He didn’t raise his value much this offseason and should still fit as a WR3 or low tier WR2 in most leagues.
8. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones put together a breakout campaign in 2019. He recorded 1,558 yards from scrimmage and tied for the league lead with 19 touchdowns. Jones finished third in fantasy points by a running back in standard leagues and second in PPR leagues. However, the former fifth-round pick could take a significant step back this season.
First, Jones isn’t going to score 19 touchdowns next season. He’ll regress toward ten scores because 19 is too much of an outlier compared to his past production. Second, Jones could lose some touches in 2020 to rookie second-round pick, AJ Dillion. At 247 pounds, Dillion packs a greater punch than the 208-pound Jones and could see action near the goal line.
Presumably, Jamaal Williams is still a factor in Green Bay’s backfield as well. Last year, Williams recorded 713 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns.
Jones can still perform at a high level in 2020, but he’ll lose a lot of his fantasy value. At best, he could be an RB2.
7. Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
During the past two seasons, Marlon Mack rushed for 1,999 yards and 17 touchdowns in 26 games. That’s 76.9 rushing yards per game. However, Mack’s borderline Pro Bowl production will take a massive hit this year when the Colts incorporate Jonathan Taylor into their offense.
Indianapolis used the 41st overall pick in this year’s draft on Taylor, making him a priority selection. In college, Taylor rushed for 6,174 yards in three seasons, and some analysts believed he was the best back in the entire draft. Despite Mack’s performance since entering the NFL in 2017, the Colts have other plans at running back.
Mack could still see a solid number of touches this season, but don’t expect him to approach his production from 2019. Last year, Mack’s 167.3 points ranked 17th among running backs in standard leagues. He finished 22nd in PPR leagues. Depending on Taylor’s role, Mack could easily plummet into the 30s among backs this season.
Mack also suffers from playing alongside other talented backs like Jordan Wilkins and pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines.
6. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen finished sixth among all quarterbacks with 297.56 fantasy points last season. However, he’s far from a reliable player and shouldn’t find himself in a QB1 spot on any fantasy team. Allen is fool’s gold, and he’ll end up costing some fantasy owners their seasons.
According to ESPN’s fantasy football staff:
"Allen scored 35% (101.0 of 288.6) of his fantasy points rushing, but his passing left plenty to be desired, as he finished last among qualified quarterbacks with 58.8% completion and 23.0% off-target passing rates."
Could Stefon Diggs help Allen dig himself out of the basement of NFL quarterbacks? Possibly, but I’m not a believer he can, based on Diggs also appearing on this list. As we covered on Diggs’ slide, Allen is one of the NFL’s worst deep-ball passers. Without that essential connection in his arsenal, it’s impossible to buy into Allen as a top fantasy quarterback.
Until Allen proves he’s worth more than his legs alone, avoid taking him unless it’s as a mid-level QB2 or early QB3 (if you’re in a league with that kind of room).
5. Melvin Gordon, RB, Denver Broncos
Denver’s backfield is a fantasy football deathtrap. In previous years, both Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay served as viable fantasy options. However, now that they’re sharing a backfield, it’s hard to imagine either back performing at an RB2 level.
Gordon did sign a two-year, $16 million deal with Denver, which makes me think he’ll see starting snaps in 2020. As a former undrafted free agent, Lindsay is making less than $1 million this coming season. Former third-round pick, Royce Freeman is making under $1.1 million in 2020. Considering Gordon’s significant cap hit, Denver probably feels compelled to play him more.
Last season, Gordon finished 25th in standard leagues with 138.8 points. Lindsay finished 19th with 162.7 while Freeman came in 40th with 99.2 points. Throwing all three of these players together in one backfield only takes away from each of their fantasy values. However, I’m putting Gordon here because he hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season since 2017.
4. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
The Patriots recently signed Cam Newton. That doesn’t change my projections for Julian Edelman entering the 2020 season. While he finished 13th in standard leagues last year and seventh in PPR leagues, Edelman won’t match that production in 2020.
Edelman posted the most standard league fantasy points of his career this past season. That already makes it highly likely that he’ll regress this coming year. However, several other factors could contribute to Edelman’s fall from grace.
At 34 years old, Edelman is by far the oldest wide receiver who ranked in the top 20 for points this past year. Edelman began showing his age toward the end of the 2019 season when he started dropping passes and missing some easy plays. He’s also matching up with a new quarterback permanently for the first time of his career.
Newton hasn’t thrown for over 3,500 yards since 2016 and hasn’t thrown for over 4,000 yards since 2011. In comparison, Brady threw for at least 4,000 yards during nine of Edelman’s 11 seasons with the Patriots. He never threw for under 3,500 yards during that time. Newton also only has one season with 25 or more passing touchdowns during his career. Brady has ten such seasons in the past 11 years.
3. Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots
Sony Michel performed consistently during his first two seasons in terms of raw production, averaging 921 rushing yards and 6.5 rushing touchdowns per year. However, that’s hardly high-end production from a running back who doesn’t play a significant role in the receiving game. The Newton signing could also hurt Michel near the goal line if the mobile quarterback starts taking some red zone carries for himself.
New England also possesses a loaded backfield. With James White taking almost all of the receptions out of the backfield, there’s no room for Michel in the passing game. Rex Burkhead ran in eight touchdowns over the past three seasons. Damien Harris could see his role on the team increase this year, and Brandon Bolden is also still on the roster.
Michel is a safe RB3, but even that might be a stretch depending on your league’s size. Michel finished 24th among running backs in standard leagues last year with 140.6 points and 31st in PPR leagues with 152.6 points.
2. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What are our expectations for Rob Gronkowski in 2020? He’s a future Hall of Famer and the most dominant tight end in history. However, injuries prevented him from ever capitalizing on his true potential and becoming the greatest tight end of all-time. After finishing 11th in standard leagues in 2018 and sitting out the entire 2019 season, should fans buy into Gronkowski as a top tight end option?
While the name is attractive and brings back memories of Gronkowski dragging three or four bodies across the goal line, let’s not lose focus here. Even with Tom Brady at quarterback, Gronkowski is 31 years old and coming off a year where he didn’t play football. The Buccaneers also feature two other viable tight ends and two Pro Bowl receivers. That’s a lot of mouths to feed.
Selecting Gronkowski as a TE1 is asking for trouble. At best, he’s a safe TE2. However, there’s always the chance he suffers another significant injury. Gronkowski hasn’t played in at least 15 games since 2015.
1. David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
The Arizona Cardinals benched David Johnson last season in favor of Kenyan Drake. After Johnson struggled for weeks, Drake averaged 80 rushing yards per game during his eight appearances with the team. Maybe Johnson didn’t fit Arizona’s offensive system, but his past three seasons are anything but inspiring.
In 2016, Johnson led the NFL with 373 touches, 2,118 yards from scrimmage, and 20 total touchdowns. Since then, he’s watched his stardom slip away. Over the past three years, Johnson compiled 455 touches, 2,191 yards from scrimmage, and 16 total touchdowns. He’s not the same player.
In March, the Cardinals traded Johnson to Houston. He walks into a situation where the Texans need a lead running back. Carlos Hyde led the Texans in rushing yards last year, but he signed with the Seattle Seahawks in free agency. Hyde finished 23rd among running backs in standard league points while Johnson finished 37th.
With only Duke Johnson on the roster to challenge him for snaps, David Johnson should receive plenty of looks. However, this is a case of volume versus efficiency. If you’re looking for a volume player, Johnson could perform at an RB3 level, but he’s no longer an efficient player.