Which NFL quarterbacks are the top deep-ball passers as of late?
Passing the football, rather than rushing, has become a significantly more prevalent attribute of NFL offenses as the league has evolved. For example, the “most average” passing football team in the NFL 40 years ago was the Miami Dolphins.
In the 1979 season, the Dolphins ranked 14th out of 28 teams in passing for a total of 2,763 yards. For context, this was the twilight of quarterback Bob Griese’s career. Flash forward four decades, and the most-average team throwing the football in 2019 was the Jacksonville Jaguars–with 3,760 passing yards. That is nearly a 1,000-yard differential, and it is substantial.
That’s the backstory. NFL teams throw more. How do they throw it?
Teams with inexperienced or less-than-stellar passers tend to utilize checkdown valves for pass-catching options; these are typically running backs or short routes to tight ends. The Chicago Bears do a lot of this with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
In 2019, Trubisky was the king of one-to-three-yard completions. He led the NFL with 45 completions of three or fewer yards. Next to him in this metric for 2019 were Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Derek Carr (all with 39 such completions).
And then there are the quarterbacks that launch it. This examination is defining 40+ yards as the deep-ball parameter. It takes the number of deep-completions and divides it by the quarterback’s overall number of pass attempts. A deep-ball-by-pass-attempts percentage is derived.
Honorable mention on this list is Detroit Lions signal-caller Matthew Stafford. The 32-year-old Lion was on a trajectory to finish near third in this particular metric but his season was derailed by injury about halfway through the 2019 campaign.
Alas, the following five quarterbacks are ranked in ascending order of good-to-great, in terms most 2019 deep-ball completions.
Note: All stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference. Disclaimer: This analysis is constructed with a recency preponderance. The statistics mentioned are from last season, 2019. It’s an examination of the “here and now” of deep-ball passers.
5. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
40+ Yard Completions in 2019: 12
Percentage to Total Pass Attempts: 2.10
Had this analysis taken place circa 2015, Aaron Rodgers would have been near the top. Over the last few years though, Rodgers has more frequently chosen shorter passing targets. This may be a byproduct of playcalling or [lack of] talent at the pass-catching positions for the Packers.
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But that does not prevent Rodgers from placing on this list. Rodgers still has a knack for slinging deep-balls, even at the age of 36. Overall, he connected for 12 passes of 40 yards or more, and that was fourth-best from a volume standpoint.
He just happened to throw the ball 569 times, or eighth-most in the business. This drove his percentage of deep passes down to sixth for these rankings. Of Rodgers’ 12 completions of 40+ yards, three were caught for touchdowns. That was the10th-most in the league.
Most of his deep passes (five of the 40+ yarders) were caught by Marquez Valdez-Scantling. Curiously, only two went to three-time Pro Bowler Davante Adams.
In a border context, last season saw the arrival of new head coach Matt LaFleur to Green Bay. Compared to previous seasons, the Packers ran the football a bit more. This was probably heightened by the maturity and budding stardom of tailback Aaron Jones.
The Packers finished the season ranked 17th in passing yards. This should tell you: If Rodgers is called upon to throw deep more frequently in 2020, he likely still possesses the physical tools to do so.
4. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
40+ Yard Completions in 2019: 11
Percentage to Total Pass Attempts: 2.47
A bizarre and prevalent narrative that swirls around the league and its talking heads is that Minnesota Vikings quarterback is a checkdown-happy quarterback. This implies that Kirk Cousins throws underneath rather than deep. The narrative is false.
Since 2016, Kirk Cousins leads all NFL passers with 143 completions of 25 yards or more. He also led all players during the 2019 season in 50+ yard touchdown throws. The man is not a dink-and-dunk style quarterback.
This analysis proves the opposite, in fact. Cousins delivered 11 completions of 40 yards or more in 2019. As a sheer volume metric, this ranked sixth-most in the NFL. But the Vikings passed the football comparatively seldom.
Last season, Minnesota had the third-fewest passing attempts of all teams in the business. Only the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens threw the football less. However, when the Vikings did throw it, Cousins had a verifiable tendency to connect deep.
On the other end of these passes was generally wideout Stefon Diggs, a player since traded to the Buffalo Bills. What’s more, Cousins’ five touchdown passes of 40+ yards ranked third-best in the league.
To compensate for Diggs’ departure east, Minnesota spent first-round draft capital on a wide receiver from LSU, Justin Jefferson. Between him and veteran Adam Thielen, the two seek to replicate Diggs’ deep-ball success in 2020.
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
40+ Yard Completions in 2019: 16
Percentage to Total Pass Attempts: 2.68
A cool statistic for Cowboys fans: Dak Prescott threw for the second-most yards in the NFL while ranking sixth in overall pass attempts. What does that mean? It means that Prescott was both efficient and accurate. Unlike a quarterback such as Jameis Winston who was first in pass attempts and passing yards — and then first in interceptions and pick-sixes.
In 2019, Prescott surpassed 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his four-year career. Often when a young signal-caller reaches such a mark, he is passing the ball profusely in the absence of a running game or playing catch-up to superior opponents. But the Cowboys have Ezekiel Elliott.
The Cowboys tailback was just two carries behind Derrick Henry for most rushing carries in the NFL. Therefore, the Cowboys have a scary propensity for a balanced offense. That should send tremors through the nervous systems of NFC East opponents, especially because the team added yet another offensive tool in rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb.
Between Amari Cooper, sophomore Michael Gallup, and the aforementioned Lamb, the Cowboys have one of the most certifiably potent offenses in the NFL heading into 2020 — on paper at least. Prescott should have no qualms continuing his deep-ball success from 2019 into this season.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
40+ Yard Completions in 2019: 15
Percentage to Total Pass Attempts: 3.09
Unsurprisingly, the reigning Super Bowl MVP nears the top of these rankings. From the moment Patrick Mahomes was anointed the starting quarterback, he has been a murderous commodity.
In the last two seasons, Mahomes ranks first in touchdown passes, second in passer rating, and trails only Matt Ryan and Jared Goff in passing yards. More importantly, it took him only two years to reach the top of the NFL mountain by winning a championship. And truth be told, he probably could have reached the Super Bowl in 2018 and nobody would have been shocked. He’s just that good.
Additionally, for this deep-ball metric, Mahomes led the NFL in 40+ yard touchdown passes. He accounted for nine such scores, and that outpaces the closest suitors, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, in second and third respectively.
With his teammates, Mahomes spread the deep-ball love around commendably. Five players had multiple-40+ yard receptions: Mecole Hardman (four), Tyreek Hill, (three), Travis Kelce (three), Sammy Watkins (two) and Demarcus Robinson (two). No Chief was left behind.
Kansas City’s front office evidently realized Mahomes’ deep-ball prowess, among other traits, as 24-year-old was recently awarded an unprecedented 10-year, $503 million contract.
1. Ryan Tannehill, Tennesse Titans
40+ Yard Completions in 2019: 9
Percentage to Total Pass Attempts: 3.14
It’s okay to be flabbergasted; so were we. Ryan Tannehill had three main scenarios going for him that enabled his presence as the leader on this list.
First, his sample-size for playing time in this analysis was slightly smaller than his peers. Tannehill took over for the once-promising Marcus Mariota who was benched by Titans coach Mike Vrabel in October 2019.
Next, the Titans did not throw the football all that much. Tennessee’s 448 total pass attempts in 2019 was the second-fewest in the league. Only the Baltimore Ravens threw the football fewer times.
Third, when Tannehill was actually allowed to sling it, he capitalized. Should Tannehill have any interest in making deep-ball production a prolonged affair, he needs to befriend wide receiver A.J. Brown. The rookie from Ole Miss snatched 56 percent of all Tannehill’s passes of 40 or more yards. It’s a brand new dynamic duo — and it worked superbly last season.
Tannehill’s candidacy for this analysis was necessary as he did play three-fourths of football games in 2019. It’s unlikely most football purists would peg him as a more flashy deep-ball passer than Patrick Mahomes. Yet, to have excluded Tannehill for this top spot would have been an arbitrary dismissal of the numbers.
For the 2019 season, Tannehill statistically deserves top honors, with a bold asterisk that says “A.J. Brown.”