Identifying one great fantasy football sleeper from each NFL team in 2020.
What makes a fantasy football sleeper a “sleeper?” Is it his low Average Draft Position (ADP)? Is it his incredibly high ceiling? Is it his easy path to a starting job?
While I already outlined the traits to look for when finding a sleeper, I thought I’d run through every NFL team and see who could outperform their ADP this season. Sometimes, it was easy to peg a sleeper. For other teams, I had to search a bit deeper to find a guy who could give your fantasy team massive value.
That’s why I labeled each sleeper with a Confidence Meter. Players with a “High” rating are sleepers I love, while players with a “Low” rating don’t warrant that much confidence. But hey, I had to knock out all 32 teams. Besides, there’s some other valuable information littered throughout the article.
So who could win you your fantasy leagues this season? Maybe like three or four of these guys, though the others could get you close.
All statistics are compiled using Pro Football Reference or FantasyPros Average Draft Position rankings unless otherwise noted.
AFC East Fantasy Football sleepers
Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox, TE
There aren’t many players on Buffalo that scream “sleeper,” though I am intrigued by Knox’s potential. He’s got the athleticism to be relevant, including a 34.5-inch vertical which he displayed prior to his rookie campaign. His sleeper status more has to do with his current ADP.
He’s generally ranked as the 29th tight end heading into the 2020 season. His upside and role in a run-heavy offense (Buffalo was seventh in rushing attempts in 2019) give him a higher ceiling than most of the tight ends before him. Confidence Meter: Low
Miami Dolphins: Mike Gesicki, TE
Preston Williams should get back to his dominant ways, though Gesicki could finish higher in relation to his position. Gesicki is essentially a big slot receiver, so his target volume already should make him eligible for your starting roster. He saw the seventh-most targets among tight ends in 2019, including a sturdy 7.1 targets a game in the final half of last season.
With Chan Gailey coming in as Miami’s offensive coordinator, expect Gesicki to continue to play that slot role. The decisions by Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns should work in Gesicki’s favor, too. This makes him much more valuable than TE15. Confidence Meter: High
New York Jets: Denzel Mims, WR
The Jets drafted Mims in the second-round to help newcomer Breshad Perriman replace Robby Anderson. Although he’s just a rookie, Mims may be the most talented receiver on New York’s roster. Mims has the size and skill to win downfield situations, hence his multitude of highlight-reel catches at Baylor.
He may not be the primary option for Sam Darnold — that could be slot receiver Jamison Crowder — but Mims’ potential and path to a starting job makes him an intriguing late-round addition to your roster. Confidence Meter: Medium
New England Patriots: N’Keal Harry, WR
Remember when Bill Belichick spent a first-round pick on a wide receiver for the first time ever? Harry’s first year in the NFL didn’t go according to plan; he only appeared in seven games and found the endzone just twice. Fast forward to the present, and a big leap could be expected in Harry’s sophomore season.
Of course, the main reason why he’s on this list is that he’ll likely be a starter in an offense that could throw the ball over 600 times. In 2019, the Patriots launched the 5th-most pass attempts, and the loss of Tom Brady suggests they may be playing from behind more this season. That and another offseason in Bill Belichick’s system should lead to an expanded role for the former first-round pick. Confidence Meter: Low
AFC North Fantasy Football sleepers
Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Boyd, WR
Let me start by saying that the Bengals were the hardest team to find a sleeper for. Auden Tate is underrated, but his durability issues are legitimate. And rookie passers rarely do well enough, so sorry Joe Burrow. Although Tyler Boyd is a little high to really be slept on (FantasyPros lists Boyd’s ADP as WR33), I still find it hard to believe that he won’t be at least a top-20 receiver.
After all, he was the 18th-highest scoring receiver in PPR leagues last season. Second-round receiver Tee Higgins could steal a target or two from Boyd, but Boyd typically lined up in the slot, whereas Higgins is a boundary receiver. In fact, ESPN’s Matthew Berry pointed out that Boyd leads all players in yards from the slot since 2018. Pair him with Burrow — who thrived when throwing to the slot at LSU — and expect Boyd to certainly outperform his ADP. Confidence Meter: Medium
Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield, QB
The excuses are running out for the former first-overall pick. What would it say about Mayfield if he can’t produce with all those toys in Cleveland? A new head coach might hurt his development, or Kevin Stefanski can finally be the coach Mayfield needs. Considering the lack of late-round quarterbacks with upside, I’ll buy Mayfield as a high-upside option.
FantasyPros says Mayfield has the easiest schedule for quarterbacks in 2020, which could help mitigate any early-season struggles. Considering the presence of COVID-19, the first few games become that much more important. For what it’s worth, Kareem Hunt could outperform his draft spot, too. Confidence Meter: Low
Baltimore Ravens: J.K. Dobbins, RB
Mark Ingram is a 30-year-old veteran entering his second season in a three-year, $15 million contract. J.K. Dobbins is a 21-year-old rookie who was just a second-round draft pick. Don’t be fooled, Dobbins is the future in Baltimore. He may not see much of the field with Ingram penned in as the starter, at least not early on. But Dobbins’ ceiling is far higher than Ingram’s, especially since Dobbins is a better catcher than Ingram.
You may have to be patient with Dobbins, but the payoff could be huge. If Ingram were to go down or lose the starting job, Dobbins would immediately be a weekly starter. Make no mistake, Dobbins will eventually be the feature back alongside Lamar Jackson. It’s just a matter of when that happens. Confidence Meter: High
Pittsburgh Steelers: Diontae Johnson, WR
The Steelers have spent a second-round pick on a wide receiver in each of the last three seasons, so the receiver room might be a little crowded for Johnson — a third-round pick in 2019 — to breakout. However, Johnson arguably has the biggest potential for a breakout campaign among Pittsburgh receivers not named JuJu. He has the experience as he played in all 16 games, and he only saw less than five targets in a game four times.
Johnson also has the skillset to thrive, especially as a coveted slot receiver. Those are golden in fantasy. The team’s leader in receptions should benefit from Ben Roethlisberger’s return, too. Johnson should only improve after a strong rookie season. At WR42, his upside is way too high to ignore. Confidence Meter: High
AFC South Fantasy Football sleepers
Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Fellow rookie running back Jonathan Taylor is another name to watch, and while his ceiling is higher, he’s too high on draft boards to really be considered a sleeper. The Colts have been struggling to find a WR2 alongside T.Y. Hilton for years, so spending the 34th pick on Pittman is a reasonable move.
The biggest reason for Pittman’s potential fantasy stardom? He’s big. And who loves chucking the ball to big receivers? Philip Rivers. With Eric Ebron gone, Pittman could see valuable work in the red zone as well. Pittman’s fantasy ceiling is too high to only be WR58. Confidence Meter: Medium
Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew, QB
Until Jacksonville sorts through their hodgepodge of young receivers, Minshew seems like a better sleeper. It’s pretty simple, really. The Jaguars will probably not be good this season. And bad teams throw the ball a lot. The volume could launch Minshew into the top half of fantasy quarterbacks, though his current ADP is QB28. While Jacksonville’s run-first offense could cap Minshew’s upside a bit, Minshew’s scrambling ability may even out the deficit.
He had the 6th-most rushing attempts in 2019, and the five guys ahead of him were all top-ten fantasy quarterbacks. Arguably the biggest indicator of Minshew’s fantasy relevance, though, is that Minshew averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game last season. That’s just 1.4 fewer points than Kyler Murray’s average, and he’s QB4. It wouldn’t shock me if Minshew is a top-12 fantasy QB. Confidence Meter: High
Houston Texans: Isaiah Coulter, WR
Houston, we have a problem. With DeAndre Hopkins’ departure, the Texans have a boatload of vacated targets. Someone has to earn a big role in the offense, and it’s hard to bet on oft-injured players like Will Fuller or Randall Cobb. Fuller has never played a full season, while Cobb has played two of nine. While newcomer Brandin Cooks has only failed to finish a season twice, concussion issues have hampered his ability to stay on the field.
That’s why I’m choosing the ultimate dart throw: fifth-round rookie Isaiah Coulter. The Rhode Island product never missed a game in his four collegiate seasons. On top of that, he showed incredible ball skills and body control. The kid’s got talent, and his vertical prowess is an excellent fit in Bill O’Brien’s offense. Confidence Meter: Low
Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill, QB
Jonnu Smith has some potential, but nothing confuses me more than Tannehill’s ADP. There are not 20 quarterbacks who are better for fantasy football than him. The Titans may be a run-focused team, but that didn’t stop Tannehill from averaging 23.98 fantasy points in his10 starts last season. When transcribed to a whole season, only Lamar Jackson averaged more points on a weekly basis.
And it’s not like anything’s changed in Tennessee, either. Tannehill is still the guy. He can still make plays with his feet — a huge bonus in fantasy football. Most importantly, though: He’s still underrated as a passer, as I explained earlier this summer. As QB21, Tannehill is a downright steal. Confidence Meter: High
AFC West Fantasy Football sleeper
Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB
Denver is locked and loaded on offense. (Get it?) They retooled their weaponry by signing running back Melvin Gordon and by drafting receivers Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Tyrie Cleveland. And all just to help their young quarterback. Lock looked good in certain stretches during the 2019 season, and while the jury is still out on how good Lock actually is, he certainly has the arsenal to make an impact this fantasy season.
His limited rushing ability rightfully caps his upside, but his ceiling is much higher than QB23. Noah Fant is a popular sleeper in this offense, though he’ll need to compete for targets on a suddenly crowded offense. Confidence Meter: Low
Los Angeles Chargers: Tyrod Taylor, QB
There’s a chance Taylor doesn’t even start for the Chargers, so this choice could be a total bust. With that said, Taylor’s dual-threat ability is a huge bonus for fantasy owners. Without a doubt, Taylor’s biggest fantasy assets are his legs. In his four seasons before coming to Los Angeles, Taylor averaged 5.7 rushing yards per attempt and 35.4 rushing yards per game.
Last year, every quarterback who averaged 30 or more rushing yards a game finished as QB8 or higher. If Taylor can remain the starter, he could be a steal. He’s going undrafted in most leagues. Confidence Meter: Low
Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman, WR
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was here since March, until Damien Williams opted out. Edwards-Helaire’s ADP has skyrocketed too high to be a sleeper, even if he has a legit shot to finish as the best RB in fantasy. Is it even possible for any Chiefs player to be a sleeper? Hardman has flashed star potential and he would be the top wide receiver on a top offense if Hill misses time again.
Unfortunately, that also means he would be a massive boom-or-bust prospect. Hardman’s 2019 season was wildly inconsistent; one week he would post double-digits, the next he’d barely produce two points. Still, his upside is undeniable, which makes him suitable to be a sleeper on a team full of fantasy-relevant players. Confidence Meter: Medium
Las Vegas Raiders: Lynn Bowden Jr., RB/WR
The Raiders completely revamped their offensive skill positions, adding rookies Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards to go with newcomers Nelson Agholor and Devontae Booker. With Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs still on the roster, that’s a whole lot of mouths to feed in Oakland, er, Las Vegas. So who could be the guy to break out from the bunch?
Popular opinion may be Henry Ruggs III, but I’ll take Lynn Bowden Jr. for fantasy purposes. While listed as a running back, Bowden is technically also a wide receiver. Having two positions should give him ample opportunities to see the field more. Like most of the sleepers on this list, Bowden’s value is higher in PPR leagues. Bryan Edwards is definitely worth monitoring, too. Honestly, he could finish the season as Las Vegas’ top wide receiver. Confidence Meter: Low
NFC East Fantasy Football sleepers
Dallas Cowboys: Tony Pollard, RB
Pollard is the true definition of a sleeper because if given the chance, Pollard could win you the fantasy title. Standing in his way is star running back Ezekiel Elliott. In his stellar four-year career, Elliott has never missed time due to an injury. So barring his first real injury or another suspension — both of which seem unlikely — Pollard will be a backup and offer no immediate value.
However, if Elliott were to miss time, Pollard would be thrust behind a great offensive line and into a role that gives him the ball over 20 times a game. With the right opportunity, Pollard has the skills to be a fantastic fantasy option. Just don’t pick him if you already have Elliott because only one can be relevant at a time. While we’re at it, Blake Jarwin is also a nice flier to take. Confidence Meter: Medium
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Reagor, WR
Dallas Goedert may be reliable, but Reagor’s got the real upside here. The Eagles clearly liked him enough to be a first-round pick, but his high selection can’t be the only reason Reagor makes this list. Vacated targets can be, though. This prime indicator for fantasy success favors Reagor because nearly 22.5 percent of Philadelphia’s targets last year were to players no longer on the team.
Someone has to catch the ball, right? Even if the Eagles opt to run much more — which is unlikely — Reagor still has a clear shot to a starting role. He could even become the team’s leading receiver. A leading receiver as WR50? Sign me up. Confidence Meter: High
New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB
Jones may not be the best passer in the world, but he sure is an intriguing fantasy option. The current QB15 posted four performances of 28+ fantasy points last season (all of which came on the road). Yes, he wasn’t the most consistent player, but Jones’ upside is evident. Like with Taylor and Minshew, Jones’ legs should keep him fantasy relevant.
He was 7th in rushing yards for quarterbacks, and of those seven, only he and Minshew were not top 10 fantasy quarterbacks last year. And he only started 12 games. Mobile quarterbacks get more points. It’s just a fact. For the sake of fantasy owners, hopefully Joe Judge and Jason Garrett lean into Jones’ strengths as a runner. Confidence Meter: Medium
Washington: Antonio Gibson, RB/WR
There’s a battle for the No. 2 receiver in Washington. The candidates are veterans Trey Quinn and Steven Sims and rookies Antonio Gandy-Golden and Antonio Gibson. Quinn is the likely slot receiver, which normally could be a fantasy gold mine, but Washington didn’t feature the slot often enough last season to warrant any confidence.
I love Sims as a late-round flier, but Gibson’s ceiling is higher. I don’t know if Gibson is the best option at receiver, though his ability to play running back is a major plus, like with Lynn Bowden Jr. After the release of Derrius Guice, Gibson becomes even more appealing. Confidence Meter: Medium
NFC North Fantasy Football sleepers
Chicago Bears: Anthony Miller, WR
Until the Bears find a reliable passer, it’s tough to see any of their wide receivers having too good of a season. With that said, Miller has been a fantasy darling since he entered the NFL two years ago. He’s the clear WR2 in Chicago, though Tarik Cohen has stolen some targets here and there. Maybe the addition of Ted Ginn takes a few more looks away, but Miller is clearly the more talented receiver. The best factor working in the WR57’s favor? A receiver’s third year is the golden year.
PFF’s Ian Hartitz found that in the last decade, only 15 receivers finished as a top-12 PPR receiver before entering their third-year. That number blossomed to 20 in year three and held steady for the next couple of years. Third-year receivers tend to produce, and considering all the hype Miller’s received in his short career, 2020 could finally be his year. Confidence Meter: Medium
Detroit Lions: Marvin Jones Jr., WR
Every young player on Detroit’s offense already has some hype to his name. Kenny Golladay is a rising star, TJ Hockenson was last year’s eighth-overall draft pick and D’Andre Swift was a hot name in college. Basically, it’s tough to pick a sleeper on a team filled with high-upside players. So why not look at a veteran? Jones has dealt with injuries in his eight-year career, though he’s certainly had his fair share of success.
He’s a downfield threat who has hit the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in fantasy. More importantly, though, could be his reunion with Matthew Stafford, who missed half of the 2019 season with an injury. Before Stafford went down, Jones was WR10. As long as Stafford’s in the backfield, expect him to keep looking for Jones. Confidence Meter: Low
Green Bay Packers: Jace Sternberger, TE
At this point, picking a Green Bay wide receiver to break out is like pulling a name from a bag. My advice is to pay very close attention to Green Bay training camp and see if a receiver separates himself from the crowd. The team’s shifting focus to the ground game doesn’t help, either. Unless, of course, you’re a tight end.
Sternberger only saw six games in his rookie campaign, so consider him to be a deeper sleeper. His rookie season was about as uneventful as rookie seasons are for tight ends. Who knows, maybe the former third-round pick is the one to develop a coveted rapport with Aaron Rodgers? Or maybe it’s Allen Lazard. Both are worth a look. Confidence Meter: Low
Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson, WR
Alexander Mattison provides value identical to Tony Pollard’s, though Jefferson has a clearer path to the starting job. He also checks all the boxes that a good sleeper has, as I explained earlier in the summer. He comes to a Vikings’ team that has 7.2 targets a game up for grabs and an open starting job. Jefferson — the team’s first-round pick — seems like the clear favorite to take over for Stefon Diggs.
Unless Minnesota chooses to run the ball even more this season, which is unlikely with Gary Kubiak now running the offense, then someone will have to fill in for Diggs. Jefferson has the talent to be that guy, though Adam Thielen could be in for a good year if he stays healthy. His upside is hard to ignore as WR44. Confidence Meter: Medium
NFC South Fantasy Football sleepers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ronald Jones II, RB
Jones’ career has been underwhelming so far. The former second-round pick has started nine games in his two NFL seasons, which lead to just seven total touchdowns. No wonder Tampa Bay reached for Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Besides, Jones should fit much better in his second-year in Bruce Arians’ offense.
The new-look Buccaneers will definitely look to feature their new passing toys, though Bruce Arians isn’t afraid to run the ball, either. They were 14th in rushing attempts in 2019, and they were 12th in targets to running backs. If Jones really is the guy in Tampa Bay, he’ll have ample opportunities to show it. And no, 32-year-old LeSean McCoy is not a threat to start, especially after being a healthy scratch in the Super Bowl. Confidence Meter: Medium
Atlanta Falcons: Calvin Ridley, WR
Is Ridley even a sleeper? No, because he’s currently a 4th-round pick. But yes, because he will far outproduce his projected slot as WR17. Keep an eye on Hayden Hurst, but Ridley is the true breakout here, even if he’s fantasy football’s worst-kept 2020 sleeper. No teams have more vacated targets than the Falcons — nearly 16 per game. Adding Hurst and Todd Gurley may help, but Laquon Treadwell and three undrafted wide receivers aren’t biting into Ridley’s target share.
And 31-year-old Julio Jones saw a slight dip in production last year. Aside from his almost guaranteed role increase, Ridley is simply a very good football player, highlighted by his top-notch route-running. In case you didn’t know, being open helps you catch passes. Ridley gets open. Lock down Ridley’s ascension to a top-10 receiver. Dare I say Ridley outperforms Julio Jones this season. Confidence Meter: High
Carolina Panthers: Ian Thomas, TE
Is it finally Thomas’ time to shine? With Greg Olsen gone, Thomas will be the No. 1 tight end in Carolina. There’s a bunch of projection here because not only will Thomas have a new quarterback; he’ll have an entirely new offense. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady brings an impressive résumé from teams that typically used three-receiver sets. This means the Panthers could be throwing the ball a lot more, and Thomas could be a huge benefactor.
However, the main reason for Thomas’ inclusion on this list stems from the same reasons that other tight ends are: There are few fantasy-relevant tight ends. As TE23, Thomas is going undrafted in most leagues. He’s got the upside to outperform that slot, especially with a revitalized offense in 2020. Confidence Meter: Medium
New Orleans Saints: Tre’Quan Smith, WR
You know all that stuff I said earlier about third-year receivers? That applies to Smith, too. It feels like everyone is just waiting for another viable receiver to emerge opposite Michael Thomas. Contrary to popular belief, that will not be newly signed Emmanuel Sanders. He’ll eat up Ted Ginn’s targets, who left for Chicago in the offseason. Smith has the talent to make a bigger impact; he just needs to stay on the field first. With ample time to get healthy, could this be Smith’s year to breakout?
If anything, Smith has become a post-hype sleeper after failing to meet expectations in 2019. Smith is intriguing because four of his five touchdowns last year came in games where he saw no more than two targets. There’s some upside here, especially if he can win a starting job. Confidence Meter: Low
NFC West Fantasy Football sleepers
San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR
The truth is one of the young receivers on the 49ers will breakout. It’s just a matter of who. This was true before the injuries to rising star Deebo Samuel and veterans Richie James, both of whom could miss time this season. Picking one young receiver to break out is a dart throw, so I’ll stick with the recent first-round pick. The reason it’s Aiyuk here — aside from a great fit in the offense — mostly comes from the draft capital San Fransisco used to get him.
First-round wide receivers have struggled in recent years, but Aiyuk’s hands should keep him at least somewhat relevant. He had a 5.5 percent drop rate at Arizona State, third-best out of the six first-round receivers. Aiyuk was reportedly Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite receiver prior to his hamstring injury in training camp. I was also high on Dante Pettis his rookie year, so maybe 2020 will be kinder to him. Confidence Meter: Medium
Arizona Cardinals: Chase Edmonds, RB
Even though I am sky-high on Kyler Murray this year, he can’t be a sleeper because he’s the fifth quarterback in ESPN’s rankings. He may be the top fantasy quarterback this season, but is anyone really sleeping on him? Instead, I’ll stick with Edmonds. Christian Kirk — a popular sleeper pick — doesn’t have the ceiling that Edmonds does.
We’ve seen Edmonds shoulder the load in Arizona before, including his 27-carry, 126-yard, three-score performance last October. He’s an injury to Kenyan Drake away from being thrust into a fantastic fantasy situation. As RB53, I’d take that upside any day. Like with Pollard/Elliott, only own one Cardinals’ running back. Confidence Meter: Medium
Los Angeles Rams: Cam Akers, RB
The Rams’ backfield is as muddled as their new bone-colored uniform. Todd Gurley is gone, leaving Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and Akers left to fend for the scraps. Despite being the team’s recent second-round pick, Akers has a lot working against him.
For starters, being a rookie in the NFL will be tighter than ever before because of COVID-19. Second, Los Angeles traded up to take Henderson in the third round a year ago. Lastly, Sean McVay said the team already plans to use a committee approach, which is a fantasy owner’s worst nightmare.
So why am I high on Akers? Because he’s good. His ADP of RB28 isn’t doing his sleeper status any favors, yet it’s undeniable how high Akers’ ceiling is. With a horrendous offensive line at Florida State, he still racked up 2,875 rushing yards and 27 rushing touchdowns in three years. That translates favorably to a Los Angeles line that was among the NFL’s worst last season, per Football Outsiders. If any Rams’ running back is to fill in Gurley’s shoes, it’s Akers. Confidence Meter: Medium
Seattle Seahawks: Will Dissly, TE
In two seasons, Dissly has scored six touchdowns on 41 targets. It’s not that impressive unless you consider he’s only played 10 games. Both seasons ended prematurely for the former fourth-rounder, leaving fantasy owners to dream about what could’ve been. The stats are in Dissly’s favor, too. He’s averaged 2 points per target and 13.5 yards per reception.
Injuries are a concern here, but the same can be said for newcomer Greg Olsen. Do we really expect a 35-year-old who last played a full season four years ago to make a big enough dent in Dissly’s production? Besides, Dissly is going undrafted in most leagues. The potential he’s shown far outdoes his criminally low ADP. Confidence Meter: Low