The best bets to win each NFL division based on the odds and value for 2020.
When looking at NFL odds for future bets, especially when it comes to something like odds to win the division, it’s easy to simply hitch your wagon to the favorites. However, the key to winning big is to find the best realistic value. The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens are two recent fantastic examples of this.
San Francisco was one of the league’s worst teams in the 2018 season, finishing with a 4-12 record, the second-worst mark in the NFL. While they were slated to get Jimmy Garoppolo back and improve in 2019, no one was expecting the 49ers to take the NFC West, not even the oddsmakers
According to SportsOddHistory.com, the Westgate SuperBook gave the 49ers +400 odds to win the division with the Rams as the favorites at -150. The Seahawks had the second-best odds at +250. As we all know now, the Niners tore up the division and the NFC at large, cashing in on those nice opening odds.
They weren’t alone in that type of plight, though. While the Ravens had a good 2018 season, finishing at 10-6 and winning the AFC North, oddsmakers weren’t sold on them. Baltimore was listed at +400 to win the division entering last season behind the Steelers (+130) and Browns (+140). Yes, they benefitted from the circumstances of those two teams but the Ravens still dominated the division.
So with value in mind as we enter the 2020 NFL season, who has the potential to make the same type of run? Let’s dive into the preseason NFL odds and identify the best bets to win each division this year.
Note: All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook courtesy of The Action Network.
NFC North Best Bet: Detroit Lions +550
- Minnesota Vikings: +160
- Green Bay Packers: +180
- Chicago Bears: +360
- Detroit Lions: +550
Yes, the Detroit Lions posted an abysmal 3-12-1 record in the 2019 season. But as they come into this year, things could turn around in a big way and the team has dark horse potential. And one major reason for that is the return of Matthew Stafford.
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Stafford only played in eight games last season before the Lions quarterback went out due to injury. However, he was playing the best football of his career. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Stafford was a much more aggressive player under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell as he threw 55 deep ball attempts (6.9 per game) during the 2019 season, five more than he threw in 2018 — even though he played the entire 2018 season. His return in an offense that plays to his strengths is key.
Meanwhile, the Lions benefit from a lack of improvement within the NFC North. The Chicago Bears, at best, remained stagnant with their offseason additions while the Green Bay Packers lost a key player in Bryan Bulaga while adding only a much-criticized draft class and fringe free agents. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings suffered a ton of losses with multiple defensive backs, Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph leaving. They did sign Michael Pierce and trade for Yannick Ngakoue but they have a young, potentially weak secondary and now a lack of continuity.
Admittedly, the Lions will have to get somewhat lucky to win the NFC North as it remains a quality overall division. With the roster they have and with Stafford back under center, though, Detroit could possibly win the division for the first time this century. And with the worst odds in the division, that makes them a phenomenal value bet.
NFC East Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles +150
- Dallas Cowboys: -121
- Philadelphia Eagles: +150
- New York Giants: +1100
- Washington Football Team: +1300
On one end of the NFC East spectrum, you have the New York Giants and Washington Football Team, both of which are in rebuild mode. But on the other end, there’s the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, making the division an interesting two-horse race at the top. The Cowboys are the favorites according to oddsmakers but that makes the Eagles the better bet based on value.
Philadelphia was plagued by injuries last season, so much so that they had former Houston Cougars quarterback Greg Ward Jr. starting at wide receiver late in the year. But despite what they had to endure as it pertains to healthy, they still managed to win the NFC East with a 9-7 record.
Admittedly, Dallas has improved this offseason with the addition of head coach Mike McCarthy while also adding the likes of Everson Griffen, CeeDee Lamb and wildcard Aldon Smith, among others. However, the Eagles also made some moves this offseason, addressing clear weaknesses from last year.
In the secondary, not only did the Eagles trade for Darius Slay at cornerback but they added Nickell Robey-Coleman and Will Parks as well. As for the thin wide receiver group, they drafted heavily at the position with speedsters in Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins and John Hightower.
Though the Football Team and Giants are rebuilding, they are improved and should be more competitive than they were last year. More importantly, the Cowboys are better prepared to make a run at the division title. Yet, the Eagles are still heavily in the mix to win the division, so getting +150 odds on that is a smart play in the NFC East.
NFC West Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +220
- San Francisco 49ers: -106
- Seattle Seahawks: +220
- Los Angeles Rams: +550
- Arizona Cardinals: +700
The NFC West is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL from top-to-bottom. The reigning NFC champion San Francisco 49ers sit at the top with the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson behind them. After that comes the Los Angeles Rams, a team that has gotten worse since their Super Bowl appearance but is still quality, and the Arizona Cardinals sit at the bottom but have a ton of upside with young Kyler Murray and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins.
Yet, the Seahawks are the best bet to win the division. Arguably no NFC team has the incredible quarterback play that Seattle does. PFF’s Sam Monson ranked Wilson as the second-best quarterback in the league for the 2020 season and deservedly so. He should be able to continue his dominance in 2020 with two quality receivers in Tyler Lockett and D.K Metcalf.
The major question for Seattle is the ancillary pieces to Wilson and the receivers. Their offensive line has consistently been one of the worst in the NFL, something that likely won’t change outside of Duane Brown. That issue is exacerbated by Wilson’s play-style, which sees him hold onto the ball for a long time before making his play.
While the pass-rush on defense is an issue, the Seahawks improved the secondary greatly this offseason. Not only did they add Quinton Dunbar but they made a big splash in trading for safety Jamal Adams. That deal may hurt them down the road given what they gave up to get the All-Pro but he will undoubtedly be a great addition to this defense for now.
Even with the Seahawks’ shortcomings, they still have Wilson, which has been enough for quite some time. At plus odds, betting on that to continue is a smart play.
NFC South Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +150
- New Orleans Saints: -125
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +150
- Atlanta Falcons: +800
- Carolina Panthers: +2200
The NFL waited on bated breath in the 2020 offseason to see where Tom Brady would land in free agency. Many thought he’d return to the Patriots but, to everyone’s surprise, the six-time Super Bowl champion left New England for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While it was a shock to the system, when you look at the Bucs roster, it’s clear they have something the Pats don’t: weapons.
Tampa Bay boasts one of the best wide receiver duos in the league with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans is a big-bodied contested-catch machine that Brady will take advantage of. Godwin, meanwhile, enjoyed a dominant breakout season last year as, according to PlayerProfiler.com, he finished with 2.61 yards per route run, 11.2 yards per target and a 64 percent contested catch rate as well.
In addition to the wide receivers, the Buccaneers have more options at tight end. Tampa welcomes back two quality tight ends with Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard but they also brought in one of Brady’s favorite targets from New England, Rob Gronkowski.
We last saw Gronk in 2018 and, during that campaign, the tight end suffered through a number of injuries that affected his production. But after a year off, perhaps Gronkowski will be able to return as a productive player in this offense.
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL, which presents a challenge for the Bucs. But at +150 odds for Tampa Bay, they have a definitive shot at winning the NFC South, which makes them the best bet.
AFC North Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +550
- Baltimore Ravens: -225
- Pittsburgh Steelers: +350
- Cleveland Browns: +550
- Cincinnati Bengals: +2500
Just a year ago, the Cleveland Browns were considered one of the favorites to win the AFC North after a huge offseason that saw them add Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson and Greedy Williams to the roster on the heels of Baker Mayfield’s record-breaking rookie season. The needle was pointing up in The Land and expectations were exceptionally high.
Their expected domination of the NFL never transpired. In fact, it was the opposite. The Browns finished third in the AFC North with a 6-10 record. It was disappointing by any standard. Yet, the Browns may actually be able to turn things around in the 2020 NFL season.
Protecting Mayfield was a tremendous struggle for Cleveland last season as the team starting Chris Hubbard and Greg Robinson, both of whom are sub-standard players, at the offensive tackles spots. The Browns rectified that this offseason, signing Jack Conklin in free agency and using a first-round pick on Jedrick Wills Jr. Even if Wills struggles as a rookie, he’s an upgrade and the line should be a much more solid unit.
Not only did the Browns also fix another mistake, firing Freddie Kitchens and hiring Kevin Stefanski but they continuity and chemistry of the team should be improved. There were numerous instances of miscommunication and not being on the same page throughout the year but, with a year together and in a better offense, that should start to look better.
Even though Cleveland has a lot going for them entering the year, the AFC North will still be tough. The Ravens went 14-2 last season and improved this offseason while the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back to help an offense that struggled opposite a defense that came into its own. Despite that, getting the Browns at +550 is tremendous value as they have a legitimate chance to make a run at the division title.
AFC East Best Bet: New England Patriots +130
- Buffalo Bills: +120
- New England Patriots: +130
- Miami Dolphins: +800
- New York Jets: +850
Tom Brady ruled over the AFC East with an iron fist and the New England Patriots were rarely challenged in the division. But Brady’s move to Tampa Bay has changed the picture. The AFC East is now ripe for the taking — or at least it seemed to be until the Patriots signed Cam Newton in free agency.
Newton only played two games last season due to injury before being released by the Panthers this spring. Injuries have been part of the narrative for Newton throughout his career but his play when healthy has been both volatile and divisive.
The simple truth is that, while Newton has put forth some tremendous seasons, he’s had more bad ones than good ones. In 2015, however, Newton threw for 3,847 yards and 35 touchdowns en route to winning NFL MVP and leading Carolina to a Super Bowl appearance. But to that point, he followed that up with a season in which he had just 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Therein lies the duality of Newton as a player.
With that said, the biggest question about New England’s offense will be how well the weapons can perform around the quarterback. The Patriots are rolling out Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers as their top weapons, Edelman being the only player of the bunch who’s proven.
The biggest question regarding Cam Newton and the offense of success of New England will be how well New England’s weapons can preform around Cam. The Patriots are rolling out the likes of Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, and Julian Edelman, with Edleman being the only whos shown any major talent.
Despite the question marks with the Patriots, they should still be considered the favorites. So to get them at plus odds make them the best bet in the AFC East.
AFC West Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -445
- Kansas City Chiefs: -445
- Los Angeles Chargers: +800
- Denver Broncos: +900
- Las Vegas Raiders: +1200
No NFL division has as large of a gap between the best and second-best team than the AFC West. It doesn’t matter who you view as the No. 2 team in the division behind the Kansas City Chiefs — the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and no other has that same luxury.
After biding his time behind Alex Smith as a rookie, Mahomes exploded onto the NFL landscape. In his second NFL season and first as the starter, he threw for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions en route to winning NFL MVP. The following season, he was dominant — despite a midseason injury — and led the Chiefs to a Super Bowl victory.
Mahomes isn’t the only asset in Kansas City, however, as they Mitchell Schwartz is a premier right tackle and Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the league.
According to PlayerProflier.com Kelce finished with the third-most yards after catch, second-fewest number of drops and the most yards of any tight end in the league. With Schwartz, he’s been a lockdown blocker in every facet, including in the playoffs last season despite facing a group of talented defenses. Pro Football Focus also ranked him as the best offensive lineman in the NFL.
Barring anything major happening, the Chiefs should be far and away the favorite to win the AFC West with no other team having even a shot at winning the division in the 2020 season.
AFC South Best Bet: Houston Texans +350
- Indianapolis Colts: +120
- Tennesee Titans: +160
- Houston Texans: +350
- Jacksonville Jaguars: +2200
The Houston Texans made arguably the biggest move of the 2020 offseason. In mid-March, head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien stunned the league by trading DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for David Johnson, a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder.
Said trade left many baffled that the Texans traded away one of the best wide receivers in the NFL for a somewhat injury-prone running back and a second-round pick. While it was a questionable move, though, Houston made several other quality moves throughout the rest of the offseason.
While losing Hopkins is no small blow, the Texans added other weapons to the offense. The franchise signed veteran wideout Randall Cobb, who’s coming off a quietly good season with the Cowboys where he posted 800 yards receiving. Houston also traded for Brandin Cooks from the Rams, a player who finished the 2018 season with 1,204 yards.
Most importantly, though, the Texans have the best quarterback in the AFC South. Deshaun Watson was getting MVP hype early in the 2019 season and, despite cooling off later, he still enjoyed a phenomenal season. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Watson finished in the top 10 of deep ball completion percentage, money throws and completed air yards.
Tennessee should be a competitive team in the AFC South once again and the Colts brought in Philip Rivers to stabilize the quarterback position. But the value of getting the Texans at +550 after they won the division last year makes them the best bet, without question.