DraftKings NFL picks, Week 11: Best DFS fantasy football values
By Drew DeLuca
DraftKings NFL Week 11 Values: Running Backs
Premium Tier ($7,000 and up): With Christian McCaffrey out this week, the highest-priced active player on the main slate this week is Alvin Kamara (ATL at NO, $9,200), who should earn his keep as the likely focal point of the offense this week. Dalvin Cook (MIN vs. DAL, $9,000) is the other running back from this tier we’d pay up for, given the unfavorable matchups that Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones will face.
Mid-Tier Values ($6,000 to $6,900): Miles Sanders (PHI at CLE, $6,900) was both incredibly efficient (5.7 yards per carry) and incredulously underused (only two receptions) in his first game back from injury. We expect that to change this week: it’s apparent to anyone with three or more brain cells that the Philadelphia Eagles offense won’t start clicking until it runs through Sanders.
We love James Conner’s matchup, but his usage has been perplexing; unlike the Sanders situation above, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been managing just fine without utilizing their stud running back as a centerpiece of their offense. Beyond him, the abundance of bad matchups and injuries in this tier cause us to keep on scrolling.
Value Tier ($5,000 to $5,900): Someone in this group is going to win DraftKings managers a ton of cash. Latavius Murray (NO vs. ATL, $5,900) offers a solid floor and should see an uptick in usage, but his upside is capped by the presence of Kamara.
Similar to Conner, we just can’t trust Jonathan Taylor (IND vs. GB, $5,800), despite a mouth-watering matchup, given his recent pattern of deployment in the office. We’re also frustrated from being teased by Antonio Gibson (WAS at CIN, $5,800), a pass-catching specialist who inexplicably watched from the sidelines as the far less electric JD McKissic was peppered with 27 targets over the past two weeks.
Speaking of coaching decisions and their impact on running backs, we’d love to be able to trust Damien Harris (NE at HOU, $5,700), who has two strikes against him as a New England Patriots running back who’s also listed as questionable with chest and ankle injuries. Safer options abound in the bottom half of this tier, starting with Kalen Ballage (LAC vs. NYJ, $5,600), as I finish typing a sentence I’d never thought I’d write.
As the Week 11 feature back for the Los Angeles Chargers, Ballage is in line for significant volume in what could be a positive game script. Meanwhile, Gio Bernard (CIN at WAS, $5,500) and Duke Johnson (HOU vs. NE, $5,400) offer similar roles at lower prices, with even less competition for backfield targets.
With Taylor out of our circle of trust, Nyhiem Hines (IND vs. GB, $5,200) is a smart start for those wishing to take advantage of Green Bay’s Swiss cheese run defense in the PPR-driven scoring system used by DraftKings. McKissic, at an identical price, is another option we like just a bit less.
Bargain Bin (Under $5,000): Rookie Salvon Ahmed (MIA at DEN, $4,800) was impressive last week in his debut as a feature back in place of the injured Myles Gaskin. This time around, he draws a Denver Broncos defense that ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last four weeks. No team has coughed up more yards on the ground over that span.
Best Buy: With Teddy Bridgewater nursing a knee injury and McCaffrey on the shelf, expect Mike Davis (CAR vs. DET, $6,800) to play a major role in the game plan. Davis has averaged 21.9 fantasy points per game in contests in which he receives 20 or more touches; odds are high he’ll see the rock early and often.
The Detroit Lions rank dead last in fantasy points coughed up to running backs over the past four weeks, allowing an astounding 11 more per week than any other defense in the league over that span. With Matthew Stafford hindered by a thumb injury, and both D’Andre Swift and Kenny Golladay ruled out, we expect a positive game script to yield a fantasy boon for DraftKings managers who find room for Davis.