DraftKings NFL picks, Week 14: Best DFS fantasy football values
By Drew DeLuca
Week 14 DraftKings NFL Values: Tight Ends
Premium Tier ($5,000 and up): Only three tight ends fall in this category this week, led by Travis Kelce (KC at MIA, $7,400), arguably the season-long MVP in fantasy football this season. Those going the bargain route at quarterback, defense, and running back should be able to fit Kelce into their lineups without issue.
We usually find ourselves recommending Darren Waller (LV vs. IND, $6,800), but the Indianapolis Colts rank number one in the league at shutting down opposing fantasy tight ends. For this reason, we prefer T.J. Hockenson (DET vs. GB, $5,000) for a fraction of the price; the former Iowa standout is averaging 5.3 receptions and 80.3 yards on 8 targets per game over the last three weeks; while he’s certainly capable of scoring in the red zone, Hockenson is one of very few at the position who offers steady, non-touchdown dependent production.
Mid-Tier Values ($4,000 to $4,900): Our Week 14 favorite from this group is Mike Gesicki (MIA vs KC, $4,500), as the Chiefs rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to the tight end position since Week 10 began. However, while Gesicki’s fantasy point totals have increased over the last three weeks, last week’s 11 targets were the most he’d received since Week 2, and it marked only the third time all season when he saw more than five.
We love Gesicki’s ceiling, but we’d rather go into battle with more dependable options in the form of Rob Gronkowski (TB vs. MIN, $4,800), who has drawn six or more targets in three of his last four contests, or Hunter Henry (LAC vs. ATL, $4,400), who has been targeted seven or more times in 9 of 12 games this season; Henry should rebound nicely from last week’s disappointing 1-5-0 performance.
Value Tier ($3,000 to $3,900): While we like Jordan Reed (SF vs. WAS, $3,500) for his ceiling as the primary pass-catching tight end in an offense that frequently features the position, we recognize that Ross Dwelley has played 50 percent or more of the 49ers’ snaps over the last five games. Therefore, we prefer the higher floor that Logan Thomas (WAS at SF, $3,300) offers; Thomas, who has a touchdown grab in each of his last two games, has reeled in 19 of his last 23 targets, has earned the trust of Alex Smith in the process.
Bargain Bin: Plenty of nice dart throws abound in Week 14 for those who place stock in matchups. Jordan Akins (HOU at CHI, $2,900) is a low-confidence option as the reigning top pass-catching tight end for Deshaun Watson in Houston; his low target share remains somehow stagnant in the wake of Will Fuller’s suspension, though that could change this week, as only the Jets have been more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chicago Bears over the past four weeks.
Others will shoehorn Will Dissly (SEA vs. NYJ, $2,900) or Jacob Hollister (SEA vs. NYJ, $3,100) into their DraftKings lineups, as the New York Jets have allowed 4.5 more fantasy points per game to the tight end position than any other team in the league. Those on a budget who prefer to hitch their fantasy wagons to production might opt for emerging rookie Cole Kmet (CHI vs. HOU, $2,900); others who favor opportunity might look Tyler Conklin’s (MIN at TB, $2,500) way, as Kyle Rudolph is unlikely to play while Irv Smith remains very much questionable.
Best Buys: We’re most likely filling out our lineups by paying up for Kelce, or blowing our fortune at the wide receiver position and opting for one of the three bargain tight ends. However, if we had to pick just one, we’d go for Thomas and Hockenson at their prices; both offer higher floors and more stable quarterback play than the more touchdown-dependent Gesicki.