With two NFL quarterback trades and perhaps many more to come, there is going to be unprecedented movement. So who will be the Week 1 starter for each team?
The 2021 NFL offseason is looking unlike anything we’ve ever seen before as it pertains to the quarterback position. Already we’ve seen Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff traded this offseason. A Deshaun Watson trade is still expected and now a Russell Wilson trade appears to be in the cards as well.
Whenever the dust settles from this offseason — especially when there is also an incredibly enticing draft class of quarterbacks — we could be looking at an unprecedented situation in terms of teams that have a new starting quarterback. But the big question is where all the dominoes will fall.
That’s the goal for today. Going division-by-division, we’re going to predict the starting quarterback for all 32 NFL teams in Week 1 of the 2021 season. We start in the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Few could have predicted the meteoric rise of Josh Allen in the 2020 season. For a player who had struggled with his accuracy and, frankly, was more dangerous as a runner than passer, the arrival of Stefon Diggs and his own improvement vaulted him into the MVP conversation.
You do have to wonder if Allen can maintain this level of play moving forward but, regardless of those questions, he’s clearly the guy for the Bills for the foreseeable future.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
Coming off of his hip injury at Alabama and with no true offseason to work in with the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa had a lot working against him as a rookie. Thus, his struggles should’ve been expected. They aren’t, however, a reason to move on from him as many are calling for. Miami is in too good of an overall position to mortgage all of their draft capital for a player like Deshaun Watson, especially when the road for Tua to improve is so obvious.
New England Patriots: Marcus Mariota
After losing Tom Brady in free agency last year, the Patriots made the move for Cam Newton in hopes that they could recapture some magic from the former league MVP. That, of course, did not work out.
But given their position in the 2021 NFL Draft and overall, it’s hard to see New England being able to make a big splash. Instead, they’re going to take a gamble on Marcus Mariota in a trade with the Raiders, hoping again to mine something from a former high draft pick that has fallen out of favor overall.
New York Jets: Justin Fields
While the New York Jets aren’t necessarily in a great spot as a franchise when you look at their overall roster, they have plenty of options this offseason, particularly when it comes to the quarterback spot.
However, the best option and the one I predict they’ll take is the simplest one. With the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they’ll select Justin Fields out of Ohio State, subsequently trading Sam Darnold (or doing so before) and hitting reset on the offense.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Point blank, it would be an absolute travesty for the Dallas Cowboys to let Dak Prescott leave this offseason. Moreover, it would be just as problematic if they didn’t sign him to a long-term contract (finally) this offseason. But in terms of the Week 1 starter, it’s going to be Prescott. Whether Dallas signs him to a deal that should’ve been inked two years ago or hits him with the franchise tag again, he’ll be the leader of the Cowboys offense.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
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For better or worse, Daniel Jones is going to be the starting quarterback for the New York Giants in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. The former first-round pick has continued to struggle to hold onto the ball and he has seemingly taken some steps back as well with more film on him available to study. Perhaps improving the pass-catching corps will help but something needs to get better for the Giants not to move on from Jones sooner rather than later.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
In the immediate aftermath of trading Carson Wentz, the assumption was that Jalen Hurts had the starting job in Philadelphia locked up. But then came the reports that they would bring in competition for the second-year player.
For me, though, this should be Hurts’ job to lose. The sample size from him as a rookie was extremely limited but, overall, it was an impressive showing from the Oklahoma product. The Eagles have to see fully what they have in him and starting him in Week 1 is the best way to do that.
Washington Football Team: Taylor Heinicke
Make no mistake, this isn’t to say that the Washington Football Team isn’t going to address the quarterback position in the offseason. My expectation is that they look at someone like Trey Lance or even Mac Jones in the 2021 NFL Draft. The thing with that, though, is that neither player is ready to start in Week 1. As such, they’ll look to almost-playoff hero Taylor Heinicke, who the franchise re-signed this offseason, to open the season as the starting quarterback.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
There’s no drama in the fact that Lamar Jackson is going to be the starting quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens in the 2021 season. There is drama, however, in what Jackson can do. After winning the MVP award for the 2019 campaign, he and the Ravens offense took a decisive step back last year. He must improve as a passer and the Ravens need to help him in that by getting more quality weapons inserted into the offense.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Suffice it to say that Joe Burrow did not come into the best situation with the Bengals last season, particularly with consideration for the abysmal offensive line. Thus, the fact that he eventually succumbed to a torn ACL is, unfortunately, not that surprising given the number of hits he took.
However, all signs point to Burrow being on track to return fully healthy in the 2021 NFL season and being ready to start in Week 1. The hope is that Cincinnati can improve the roster around him enough to allow him to truly shine.
Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield
After a monstrously exciting rookie season, Baker Mayfield experienced a sophomore slump that cast plenty of doubts about his viability for the Browns. But with the arrival of Kevin Stefanski, the narrative has shifted again.
Mayfield has still not been a perfect player but he undeniably improved with each game played under his new head coach. Now with a full offseason ahead, he should be able to come up and live up to being the No. 1 overall pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger
Considering what the Pittsburgh Steelers offense looked like this past season, there were deserved discussions regarding whether or not Ben Roethlisberger would be back for the 2021 NFL season. But it now appears that he’s on his way back, albeit while taking a paycut. Subsequently, the AFC North is the only division in which every starting quarterback from last season will return next year.
Chicago Bears: Sam Darnold
As it appears that the Mitchell Trubisky era has finally subsided, the Chicago Bears are clearly looking to upgrade at quarterback moving forward. The problem with that is that they keep missing out on players made available.
Thus, their options are becoming increasingly limited and, frankly, I don’t see them landing any of the big fish that are swimming in the pond still. That’s why they’ll end up with Sam Darnold. Darnold still has talent and a move out of New York could be exactly what he needs to realized his potential. The Bears will definitely hope that’s the case.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
The rebuild is well underway in the Motor City after the Detroit Lions traded away Matthew Stafford for a pair of first-round picks and quarterback Jared Goff.
Not having Stafford and potentially seeing a ton of offensive roster turnover is going to put the Lions in a bad spot but that bad spot will start with Goff getting the opportunity to prove himself. There’s reason to be doubtful about what he can do but the former first-overall pick will start the season under center.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Fresh off winning the third NFL MVP award of his career, there’s nothing to indicate that Aaron Rodgers won’t be suiting up for the Green Bay Packers in 2021 yet again. Yes, there was some speculation after the NFC Championship Game about what his next move could be but it seemed more like manufactured noise than anything else. He’s still at the top of his game and gives the Packers the best chance to win a Super Bowl.
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins is one of the most divisive players in the NFL. Some believe that he’s a fine quarterback that the Vikings can win with while others maintain that he’s not as good as some of his stats would have you believe.
Regardless of which side of the coin you fall on, though, this is another quarterback that is likely staying put for the 2021 season and, when Minnesota kicks off a new campaign, Cousins will be leading the charge once again.
Houston Texans: Zach Wilson
Despite the peacocking of the new front office in Houston, they’re going to end up trading Deshaun Watson before the offseason subsides and, almost surely, prior to the 2021 NFL Draft. In doing so, they’ll look to put themselves in position to land one of the top quarterback prospects and I believe they’ll be in prime position to tab Zach Wilson. The BYU product is loaded with talent but he’ll be up against it early with the state of the Texans roster right now.
Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz
From the moment it became apparent that Carson Wentz was going to be traded away by the Philadelphia Eagles, it became obvious that the Indianpolis Colts were the best destination. Now the former No. 2 overall pick will be reunited with Frank Reich with hopes of rejuvenating his career.
Indy is a much better overall situation for Wentz but it remains to be seen just how much he can recover from by far the worst season of his career. Even still, the Colts will give him the chance to do so right away.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
One of the most telling things of the offseason was the Jacksonville Jaguars hiring new head coach Urban Meyer and hardly anyone was ready to make the Ohio State connection to Justin Fields. That’s how certain the Trevor Lawrence pick is at this point.
Whenever a franchise takes a player at No. 1 overall, the assumption is that they’re going to start right away. You would have to assume the same with the Jags and Lawrence given his label as a franchise-changing quarterback.
Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill
It feels as if there is often little conversation about the Tennessee Titans in the offseason, though that was less so the case a year ago. But now that Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are locked up to long-term contracts, it’s likely going to be another quiet few months. For a team that is clearly going to be in the playoff mix for a long time, though, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially with the jump Tannehill has made in Nashville.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan
Near the end of the 2020 NFL regular season, the speculation began that the Atlanta Falcons could hit a hard reset that would see them move on from veteran quarterback Matt Ryan. That has seemingly died down since, though, and it would now be shocking to see anyone but Ryan taking snaps in 2021.
Carolina Panthers: Deshaun Watson
It seems to me as if people are continuing to dismiss the notion of Deshaun Watson going to the Carolina Panthers because it isn’t a big-market franchise. But when you look at the possibility of Watson returning to where he matured in college at Clemson plus the opportunity for him and the aggressiveness of the Panthers front office, the stars could align.
Simply put, Carolina appears to be the team bold enough to make the Texans budge with their offer and get a trade for Watson done.
New Orleans Saints: Jameis Winston
Though Drew Brees has yet to announce his retirement, it seems all but certain that will be the eventual outcome this offseason. And in the end, that’s going to make things complicated for the Saints.
There are likely going to be two options for the franchise to trot out with Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston having experience in the system. Winston gets the edge for me, though, given that he has more upside under the watch of Sean Payton. The bigger question will be if he’s the starter in 2022 or not.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tom Brady
Well, if there was any question about the greatness of Tom Brady, this past year might’ve put them to bed. There were people who truly believed that he was a product of Bill Belichick and the Patriots system.
But after arriving with the Buccaneers without a full offseason or preseason, he took Tampa Bay to a historic Super Bowl victory. Now he’s not only expected to come back to try and defend the title but there is already talk of the Bucs extending him.
Denver Broncos: Drew Lock
Many Broncos fans have already been looking for the franchise to move on from Drew Lock as the second-year quarterback clearly regressed in his first full(ish) season as the starter in Denver. And that’s likely going to be the plan.
However, my belief is that they are unable to bring in a ready-made starter. Instead, it would be more reasonable for Denver to take a player such as Trey Lance in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and let him sit for at least next season while Lock gets one more crack at it.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
There’s not much that needs to be said here. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and that’s no changing. Of course, after watching Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs might want to make sure the protection remains intact.
Las Vegas Raiders: Russell Wilson
Another massive move but things are trending towards Russell Wilson being traded. And while the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints are both aggressive teams that need a quarterback, the Raiders fit that bill too and it seems to just make sense as the end result.
The Raiders need defensive help but they have an evolving offense and a nice line. Wilson would be an upgrade over Derek Carr, without question, and could finally be the quarterback necessary to get Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock over the hump with the silver and black.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Coming into last season, the question was if Justin Herbert would start a game as a rookie. But due to a freak injury to Tyrod Taylor early in the year, the Chargers No. 6 overall pick got forced into action and thrived.
There will be questions about whether or not a sophomore slump is coming or not. Having said that, the fact that he’s been able to already exceed expectations means he’ll have plenty more expectations ahead of him in the 2021 NFL season.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
It feels like forever ago that the Cardinals made the brazen decision to move on from former top-10 pick Josh Rosen to select Kyler Murray first overall. There have certainly been mixed results over that time but it does look as if Arizona made the right bet in that scenario as Murray continues to develop and look like one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league.
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
There’s little drama about who is going to start for the Los Angeles Rams when the 2021 season begins. After making the assessment that Jared Goff wasn’t going to take the franchise where they wanted to go, the Rams made the bold move for Matthew Stafford. Now that he’s in tow, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the year if he wasn’t under center in Week 1 and for the majority of the year.
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo
Though every available quarterback has been connected to the 49ers this offseason with the belief that the team would move on from Jimmy Garoppolo, I ultimately don’t think that’s the case. The franchise has been adamant that they are sticking by him (for now, at least) and there’s no reason not to believe them.
The only thing that would change this is if a Deshaun Watson trade became a viable possibility for San Francisco. However, that seems unlikely at this point and especially with the prediction that Watson will be in Carolina. Thus, Jimmy G remains with the Niners.
Seattle Seahawks: Derek Carr
If the Seahawks do trade Russell Wilson, it’s going to be for a mountain of draft picks. But that doesn’t answer the question of who will be starting in Week 1. So to sweeten the pot, the Raiders will send Derek Carr to Seattle.
Carr has quietly been better than people realize over recent years and, though Seattle will lament losing Wilson, they will still have stability under center with the longtime Raider at the helm.