NFL picks and score predictions for Week 1 as the 2021 season is set to begin.
Oh sweet gridiron gods, thank you for delivering to us another season of NFL football. The new campaign is set to kick off in the next few days, and we’ve got our regular batch of weekly NFL picks and score predictions to help you through the upcoming weekend of football glory.
As has been the case for the last few years, we’ve got you covered with the Week 1 edition of NFL picks and score predictions. Just as in seasons passed, I’ll never claim to know what the future holds. As it turns out, odds are high at least a few of my picks will be completely wrong. I will, however, make my selections based on research, experience and careful consideration.
I will let my past speak for itself, though. As it so happens, my picks and predictions for the 2020 NFL season were an improvement on the previous year, as I finished with a record of 162-93-1. It could certainly be better, but it also takes the cake when compared to any other “professionals” out there.
Just remember that making picks is not a science. Plenty of research goes into it, but there’s no crystal ball — craziness occurs every Sunday. Then again, isn’t that part of the fun of it all?
Now that we’ve gotten all of that out of the way, here are my NFL picks and score predictions for Week 1. Just keep in mind that I assume no responsibility if you choose to place wagers based on my picks — that’s your decision, not mine.
Week 1 Byes: None (obviously)
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Thursday, September 9, 8:20PM ET
Every indication is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have no plans on stopping their championship run at one. Tom Brady is still in town, which makes that a relevant and understandable approach to the upcoming 2021 campaign. It all starts with a visit from the Dallas Cowboys.
Right now, there’s little reason to believe the Buccaneers don’t stand a legit chance at repeating. Brady is back and probably better than ever, and he’s got plenty of weapons to with on offense. While the Tampa Bay defense is also worth worrying about, this team is going to have its hands full in Week 1.
Why is that? Well the Dallas Cowboys are looking to prove something this season after stumbling down the NFC East rankings in 2021. A big part of that was due to the absence of Dak Prescott, who’s now back — albeit not at full strength. Even with Prescott still on the mend, the Cowboys boast enough talent on both sides of the ball to put up a fight against the defending champs.
Despite that, I believe the Buccaneers get a close win at home. Brady tosses a few clutch touchdowns, and the Tampa Bay D steps up in the final minutes to secure the W.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 31-27
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
The future is now for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have their franchise quarterback and, uh, still look like a bottom-of-the-barrel squad. Regardless of what their overall season outlook is, Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season should at least start on a positive note.
That’s because the Jaguars are set to take on the Houston Texans in Week 1. Right now, the Texans are the consensus worst team in the NFL, with a roster nearly devoid of talent. Heck, their best player, Deshaun Watson, is the third-string quarterback and may not even play in 2021 — or be on the roster by season’s end.
Jacksonville is still rebuilding, but having Lawrence under center and James Robinson in the backfield should help. Their defense is still a major work in progress, especially at cornerback. Luckily for them, the Texans don’t exactly have a ton of weapons to threaten them with in Week 1.
Lawrence’s NFL debut is bumpy, but he does just enough to secure the win for the Jaguars. Regardless of how 2021 turns out for Jacksonville, at least they’ve got two games against Houston. Don’t bother tuning into this one unless you’re heavily invested in Lawrence’s development.
Prediction: Jaguars win 20-9
Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Washington Football Team (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Washington Football Team as a potential sleeper in 2021. I get it — they own one of the best defensive lines in football and Ryan Fitzpatrick is always a wild card. But I’d warn against sleeping on the Los Angeles Chargers as well.
Justin Herbert is arguably one of the game’s top young quarterbacks, having blown opponents away last season with his maturity and passing prowess. Now he’s got a full year under his belt, some healthy weapons to work with, and a supporting Los Angeles defense that tends to exceed expectations.
Furthermore, Los Angeles has a better supporting cast of skill players. With options like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Jared Cook, the Chargers shouldn’t have too much trouble putting up points — even against Washington. That is, assuming the offensive line can hold up.
Even if D.C.’s defense proves to be a handful, I can’t see Washington mustering enough offensive movement to get the win. Expect a low-scoring game with the Chargers sneaking by for an opening-weekend W.
Prediction: Chargers win 16-14
Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
Not a lot of people believe this, but the Seattle Seahawks could be one of the true contenders to come out of the NFC in 2021. That may sound like a bias coming from someone who lives in the PNW, but I promise that is a purely objective opinion.
Oddly enough, it’s not because of the Seahawks’ defense — which has often been the case in the past. Instead, it’s their offense that’s going to do some serious damage this season, helping them along to one of the top spots in the NFC. Heck, just Russell Wilson can take them most of the way there, as we’ve seen in the past.
As for the Indianapolis Colts, I have my reservations. Some selfishness seems to be causing them problems at the moment, and I wouldn’t be surprised if those issues persisted well into the regular season. If Carson Wentz can’t stay on the field, the wheels could soon fall off of what was supposed to be a big year for Indianapolis.
To start, I’m predicting that big year for Indianapolis begins with a big, fat loss. The Seahawks head to Indy and rough up the Colts, overwhelming their defense through the air and forcing an unprepared Wentz into more mistakes than his team is capable of overcoming.
Prediction: Seahawks win 32-13
New York Jets (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
I know everyone is excited about the start of the Zach Wilson era for the New York Jets. And while the rookie gunslinger has shown enough this preseason to warrant the buzz, it’s the other quarterback who’s going to steal the show in Week 1.
This is Sam Darnold’s first opportunity to stick it to the team that wasted the first four years of his once-promising NFL career. It’s also a chance for the former USC star to prove he’s capable of shining now that he’s out from under Adam Gase’s grimy shadow. I’m thinking he’ll deliver for the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.
It’ll also help having Christian McCaffrey back and healthy after an injury-plagued 2020. The Panthers have the pieces to tally a strong amount of wins in 2021, and it starts with a showdown against the Jets that could come down to the wire.
The New York defense is underrated, and there’s no telling what sort of damage Wilson will do during his introduction to the NFL. Despite that, I’m giving the edge to the Panthers as they get an early-season win at home.
Prediction: Panthers win 26-20
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
I’m not sure why, but the Minnesota Vikings are being seriously slept on right now. They made some major upgrades on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, and should have a healthy gaggle of offensive stars to work with as well. So why so much doubt?
Yes, the offensive line is still a red flag. Kirk Cousins also cares more about himself than his teammates, which could issues somewhere down the road. For now, though, this Vikings team is healthy, talented and ready to rumble through their early-season set of games. That includes their season opener against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Now I won’t completely write off the Bengals. They’ve got a promising young quarterback in Joe Burrow, although he’s coming off a torn ACL. Their defense is improved, although not having Geno Atkins just doesn’t feel right. The talent is there on paper, but I don’t feel like they’ve put it all together as well as Minnesota has heading into the 2021 campaign.
Despite my perceived advantage, the Vikings don’t blow the Bengals out of the water. Their offense struggles to get the motor running early, forcing them to rely on their defense and a late push from Dalvin Cook to get the W.
Prediction: Vikings win 19-14
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
I don’t doubt that the Arizona Cardinals have the potential to be a playoff team. The NFC West won’t make it easy, but it’s possible. Unfortunately, that won’t mean much when it comes to their Week 1 matchup with the Tennessee Titans, who could blow up the league in 2021.
At least when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, the Titans are the complete package. Ryan Tannehill has been sensational since landing in Nashville, Derrick Henry is likely headed for another historic season, and the duo of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones is just unfair. This group will score points at an alarming pace this season.
We’ll see an example of that in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals. While their defense is far from incompetent, it’s not ready for the Titans’ offensive assault. Kyler Murray will do his best to keep pace, but that’s just not going to happen.
It’s time for everyone to understand that the Titans are serious contenders this season, especially if their defense can come together. Expect an endless stream of touchdowns that results in a monstrous win for Tennessee to start the 2021 campaign.
Prediction: Titans win 47-27
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
While a starter hasn’t yet been announced, signs points towards Jimmy Garoppolo getting the majority of the snaps under center in Week 1. Even if that weren’t the case, I’d still find it hard to imagine a scenario in which the Detroit Lions come away victorious.
There just isn’t anything to be excited about with this Detroit squad. Let’s look at the facts: Jared Goff is the starter (yawn), and he’s got nothing but young, raw players and scrubs to throw to. The best part of the Lions offense is the ground game, which is still relatively unproven compared. It doesn’t help that they’re set to battle with an exceptional San Francisco defense.
Regardless of who’s in at quarterback, the 49ers should still move the ball without too much trouble. They’ve got some exciting options in the passing game like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has always been great at moving the pigskin on the ground. Expect a big game from San Francisco offense.
Goff will stumble in his first game with the Lions, and the ground game won’t give them enough energy to stay competitive. The 49ers win, and folks start jumping on the bandwagon.
Prediction: 49ers win 34-15
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
After missing the playoffs last season, the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have their arrow pointed in a positive direction. Unfortunately, much of their success in 2021 hinges on Ben Roethlisberger and his health. So we’ll see how things go in the coming months.
Now to Week 1, when the Steelers will suffer a disappointing defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. In my opinion, the Bills are one of the top contenders in the AFC, due in large part to Josh Allen’s presence, his gaggle of capable playmakers, and the outstanding Buffalo defense. It all starts with a big win to kick off the season.
Roethlisberger falls under heavy pressure, and Najee Harris struggles to get things going on the ground. A turnover or two opens the door for the Bills to take charge on the scoreboard, and Allen never looks back. Even against a stout Steelers defense, Buffalo’s offensive assault won’t be slowed enough.
Both of these clubs could be enjoying the postseason when January rolls around. For now, though, the Steelers will have to settle for an early-season loss while the Bills jump out to an early advantage.
Prediction: Bills win 33-26
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 1PM ET
In all honesty, my hopes aren’t high for either the Atlanta Falcons or Philadelphia Eagles this season. Both are going through a number of big changes, but one has a very clear advantage at a very important position — quarterback.
Matt Ryan, despite the decline in production and effectiveness, is still one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. Furthermore, he’s the far superior talent when compared to Jalen Hurts. Plus, he’s got guys like Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts to throw to. Hurts has weapons too, but he’s not nearly as capable of taking advantage of them.
On the defensive side of the ball, both teams also aren’t exactly ready to slow down the top offenses in the league. I’d give a slight advantage to the Eagles, but it isn’t by much. Both teams will give up points in Week 1, which means it’ll come down to the more effective offense.
That would be Atlanta, with the combination of Ryan, Ridley and Pitts. They produce just enough points to sneak by with the opening weekend win in a battle of the birds.
Prediction: Falcons win 24-22
Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 4:25PM ET
Tired of seeing the Kansas City Chiefs atop the NFL hierarchy? Too bad. That’s not changing in 2021. I’m sure plenty are hoping to see the Chiefs toppled by the Cleveland Browns to start the season, but that’s unlikely to happen.
Why? Well for starters, the Chiefs may actually be better this season than they were last year. They’ve still got Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and a bevy of other offensive playmakers to rely upon. To make matters worse for opponents, they’ve also got one of the better defenses in the league.
The Browns are no slouch either — I’ll give them that. They’ve got one of the best ground games in the NFL, and Baker Mayfield has proven to be an above-average starting quarterback. The talent is there in the receiving department as well, although it doesn’t shine as brightly as it probably should. Still, there’s no denying Cleveland is a team worth taking seriously.
That won’t matter in Week 1, though. The Chiefs welcome the Browns into town, give them a good ol’ fashioned beatdown, and send them back to Ohio with their tails between their legs.
Prediction: Chiefs win 36-14
Green Bay Packers (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 4:25PM ET
Here’s my upset of the week.
We all know the New Orleans Saints’ competitiveness took a big hit when Drew Brees called it a career. The public wasn’t impressed with their decision to stick with Jameis Winston at quarterback, but he showed out during the preseason and has given fans a faint glimmer of hope.
Now it’s time for him to prove everyone deserves a second chance. Winston comes into this game high on his preseason success, and carves up a quality Green Bay Packers secondary. The points come early and often, as he relies on playmakers like Alvin Kamara, Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Calloway to steal the show.
Aaron Rodgers won’t go down without a fight, but I wouldn’t be surprised he if wasn’t entirely invested in giving it his all in 2021. The Packers may have more weapons on offense, but a couple of mistakes is all it takes to turn the tide in the NFL.
The Saints pull off a surprising Week 1 win, while the Packers suddenly plummet down the power rankings following an unexpected upset.
Prediction: Saints win 23-21
Denver Broncos (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 4:25PM ET
Personally, I feel like folks are sleeping on the Denver Broncos in 2021. Yes, they’re coming off a lackluster season and don’t exactly have the most inspiring situation under center, but they’ve got enough talent across the board to make waves across the league.
Then again, the same could be said for the New York Giants. Daniel Jones is a huge question mark, but a breakout season is possible for the young gunslinger. Saquon Barkley is back and healthy, and the Giants do have a couple of intriguing options in the passing game as well. The defense is a work in progress, but could surprise this season as well.
So why am I going with the Broncos in this one? Simple. They’ve got the upper hand on both sides of the ball. I’m a believer in Teddy Bridgewater, who went 5-0 as a starter last season for the Saints. Call him a game manager if you want, but 5-0 seems like some excellent management. Having Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant to throw to will certainly help.
Ultimately, the Broncos’ offensive firepower and defensive prowess are too much for the Giants to handle. Jones has a decent day slinging the pigskin, but New York can’t muster enough points to come out on top.
Prediction: Broncos win 26-24
Miami Dolphins (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 4:25PM ET
I’d like to say the Miami Dolphins look better this season, but they’re still a wild card at best. It depends largely on the play of Tua Tagovailoa and the performance of the Miami defense, so I wouldn’t put your life savings on them making too big a splash in 2021.
While the New England Patriots are also uncertainty with a rookie at quarterback, what we’ve seen from Mac Jones so far is promising. The youngster was setting off fireworks all preseason long, and convinced the Patriots to part ways with Cam Newton. Now can he deliver when the games actually mean something? We’ll see in Week 1.
Even if he struggles, though, I don’t see the Patriots letting this matchup with the Dolphins slip from their grasp. The New England defense is one of the most underrated groups in the NFL, and will certainly help this AFC East contender stay competitive throughout the season.
I’m not going to speculate on Jones’ or Tagovailoa’s performance, but I will instead say that the Patriots defense does more than enough to get the win. Meanwhile, the Dolphins trip up in Week 1 and get their season off to an ugly start.
Prediction: Patriots win 23-14
Chicago Bears (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
Sunday, September 12, 8:20PM ET
Right now, the Chicago Bears are moving in the right direction. Unfortunately, the driving force behind that forward movement will be watching from the bench on Sunday night. That’s why the Los Angeles Rams shouldn’t have too much trouble notching a win in this one.
Justin Fields is the future for the Bears. However, Chicago is set on Andy Dalton beginning the 2021 campaign as the starter. That won’t end well against a Rams defense that features Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and other fear-inducing talents. Expect plenty of pressure on Dalton, and more than a handful of resulting mistakes.
As for the Los Angeles offense, don’t be surprised to them explode on that side of the ball as well. Matthew Stafford is an obvious upgrade over Goff, and we’ll see examples of that during Week 1 when the Rams put a sizable amount of points up on Chicago.
The Rams are one of the teams to watch this year when it comes to making a deep playoff run, and that starts on September 12. Los Angeles gets the win at home, while the Bears already start to wonder if rolling with Dalton was the correct route to take.
Prediction: Rams win 27-10
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-0)
Monday, September 13, 8:15PM ET
I’m sorry Silver and Black fans, but this still isn’t the Las Vegas Raiders’ year. That’s not to say they won’t make a playoff push, but putting them in the “contender” category would just be ill-advised. We’ll get our first evidence of that in Week 1 when they tussle with the Baltimore Ravens.
Sure, the Raiders offense is solid with skill players like Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller running the show. However, it’s the defense that gives me reason to believe the Raiders still aren’t ready to take that next step in their progression. The heat could even soon turn up on Jon Gruden’s seat if the wins don’t start piling up.
As for the Ravens, look for an offensive explosion on Monday night. They’ve obviously got the former MVP in Lamar Jackson, but his arsenal of weapons has been expanded this year as well. Even with the loss of J.K. Dobbins, the Ravens should find the end zone early and often against this underwhelming Las Vegas defense.
Baltimore takes an early lead and never looks back, as Jackson keeps his foot on the gas pedal for 60 minutes. It’s looking like the Ravens are yet again one of the teams to beat in the AFC.
Prediction: Ravens win 43-20