NFL picks and score predictions for Week 5 as the 2021 season chugs along.
After four amazing weekends of football, the 2021 NFL season continues with another 16-game slate of action. With it comes our regular batch of weekly NFL picks and score predictions to help you through the upcoming weekend of gridiron greatness.
Yes, we’ve got you covered with the Week 5 edition of NFL picks and score predictions. Just as in years passed, I’ll never claim to know what the future holds. As it turns out, odds are high at least a few of my picks will be completely wrong. I will, however, make my selections based on research, experience and careful consideration.
After two weeks of 12-4 outcomes, I took a small step back this past week. When all was said and done in Week 4, my NFL picks had resulted in a 10-6 record. It’s far from disastrous, but not nearly as strong of an effort as I was hoping for. After that, my overall record on the year moves to 43-21. Could definitely be worse at this point in the season.
Just remember that making picks is not a science. Plenty of research goes into it, but there’s no crystal ball — craziness occurs every Sunday. Then again, isn’t that part of the fun of it all?
Now that we’ve gotten all of that out of the way, here are my NFL picks and score predictions for Week 5. Just keep in mind that I assume no responsibility if you choose to place wagers based on my picks — that’s your decision, not mine.
Week 5 Byes: None | All point spreads and odds are courtesy of WynnBet.
Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Thursday, October 7, 8:15PM ET
It wasn’t long ago I thought the Los Angeles Rams were nearly invincible. They were playing fantastic football, their defense was downright dominant and Matthew Stafford was looking like the quarterback Sean McVay always wanted Jared Goff to be.
Then they got crushed in Week 4 by the Arizona Cardinals, putting on a performance that left plenty to be desired from one of the NFC’s supposed top contenders. Although I haven’t thrown in the towel on them, I’m not going to ignore the potential for them to take another tumble in Week 5 at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks.
Let’s consider this — what beat the Rams this past Sunday? The Cardinals’ air raid offense and Kyler Murray’s magic, mixed with a strong, diverse run game. As it turns out, the Seahawks are more than capable of reproducing that approach. Russell Wilson is essentially an older Murray with similar weapons, and the duo of Chris Carson and Alex Collins is dangerous.
The Rams will score as we’ve come to expect, with Cooper Kupp enjoying success against the Seahawks’ inconsistent secondary. However, Seattle gets just enough stops to stay ahead of the Rams all the way until the final whistle blows.
Prediction: Seahawks win 35-26 | Spread: Rams (-1.5)
New York Jets (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Sunday, October 10, 9:30AM ET
Surprisingly, the New York Jets managed to get their first win in Week 3 against a Tennessee Titans team that can’t seem to get out of its own way. It’s a nice, feel-good story for Robert Saleh and his new squad, but it’s not something you should get used to.
The Atlanta Falcons have been far from impressive this season, but they haven’t been a disaster either. They’ve kept most of their outing competitive and nearly downed the Washington Football Team this past Sunday. With the lesser Jets coming to town, it seems safe to predict they’ll secure their second win of 2021.
Atlanta’s defense is a mess, so they’ll need to rely on Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and (oddly enough) Cordarrelle Patterson to get the job done. Luckily, they shouldn’t have to produce too many points to secure the W with the way Zach Wilson and the New York offense have been playing.
It’s a close one, but the Falcons create a few spark plays that allow them to pull ahead in the second half and stay there. Gang Green doesn’t roll over, but Wilson makes too many mistakes for them to overcome.
Prediction: Falcons win 26-21 | Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
The Minnesota Vikings are going to get it together at some point, right? They’re 1-3 but all three losses have been close. However, it seems like every week, either the offense or defense doesn’t show up. Maybe the whole team will make an appearance at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 5?
If the Vikings are going to turn things around, this is the best week to do it. The Detroit Lions, their NFC North foes, have limped to an 0-4 start, allowing a leaking defense and solid-but-unspectacular offense to keep them from tasting victory. The Vikings have them beaten on paper, but anything can happen when this inconsistent team takes the field.
For the purpose of this piece, though, I’m going to assume Minnesota makes a statement in this one. Sure, beating a winless team isn’t going to skyrocket them in the power rankings. But it will stop the bleeding and convince other clubs to at least take them seriously.
The Vikings get after Goff early and often, forcing the bipolar quarterback into one of his classic meltdowns. Kirk Cousins has a good game, and the Minnesota running game puts it on ice as the Twin Cities celebrate a much-needed win.
Prediction: Vikings win 27-17 | Spread: Vikings (-8)
New Orleans Saints (2-2) at Washington Football Team (2-2)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
As we all know, it’s always a guessing game as to what Jameis Winston shows up on Sunday. The New Orleans Saints have found that out the hard way, as they currently sit at 2-2 and haven’t been able to rely on their offense as much as they’d like to.
The New Orleans defense has stepped up and done its best to keep things close, but it wasn’t enough in Week 4. And now they’ve got another tough test coming in the Washington Football Team, which seems like one of the most resilient bunches in the NFL.
Taylor Heinicke is doing his very best to keep the offense running strong, with heavy doses of help from Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. He’s delivered when needed this season, which is why the Football Team is still in the thick of the hunt — at least for an NFC Wild Card slot. The Saints may be vying for a similar slot, which is why this one matters more than you’d think.
D.C.’s defense hasn’t lived up to the hype this season, which could open the door for a big day from Winston. He relies on Alvin Kamara early and often, giving the Saints just enough to inch their way to a much-needed win in Week 5.
Prediction: Saints win 31-28 | Spread: Saints (-1)
New England Patriots (1-3) at Houston Texans (1-3)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
While they’re currently 1-3, the New England Patriots aren’t a pushover. They nearly knocked off Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and have one of the better defenses in the NFL. It’s laughable to even consider the Houston Texans a threat in Week 5.
Since Davis Mills took over for the injury Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback, the Texans have been miserable on offense. They’ve managed only nine points in those two games, as the rookie gunslinger looks completely lost running the offense. Against the aforementioned stout New England defense, expect another rough outing for Mills.
And while the Houston defense is no slouch, it shouldn’t prove too difficult to overcome for Mac Jones and the Patriots. They’ve got a reliable running game, and Jones is playing some quality football despite his fair share of growing pains. Especially with Bill Belichick pointing the way, Jones seems destined for greatness and we should see more progress towards that in Week 5.
After a fluke Week 1 win, the Texans have quickly evolved into the sad excuse for a football team we expected them to be. You may blame that on the loss of Taylor, but one player does not make a team. Houston falls to 1-4 while the Patriots get back into the hunt with a win.
Prediction: Patriots win 31-7 | Spread: Patriots (-9.5)
Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
As much as some of us would like him to disappear, Tom Brady hasn’t retired yet. And he’s got the Buccaneers running like a well-oiled machine as they attempt to defend their 2020 championship. The next step is stomping the Miami Dolphins in Week 5.
That shouldn’t prove to be too tall of a hurdle for Brady and Co. The Tampa Bay offense is one of the best in the league, with a wide range of weapons capable of putting points on the board. Their defense hasn’t been quite as reliable this season, but it’s doing a decent job of bending without breaking.
A plus matchup with the reeling Miami Dolphins helps. Since stepping in for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, Jacoby Brissett has been wildly inconsistent for the Miami offense. Coming off an ugly effort in Week 4, it’s hard to have much confidence in the Dolphins’ backup against a tough Buccaneers squad.
Brissett can’t get it going even against the Buccaneers’ subpar pass defenses, and Brady gets yet another win without breaking too much of a sweat. Tampa Bay continues on the road to a high seeding in the NFC while the Dolphins desperately wait for Tua to return.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 34-20 | Spread: Buccaneers (-10)
Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
Upset alert! I know the Green Bay Packers are rolling right now, but they haven’t exactly been pristine this season. Aaron Rodgers is getting it done and the defense has held firm, but this team has holes that can be exploited on Sundays.
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the biggest surprises of the early 2021 campaign. While the majority of their early-season success has come against inferior competition, there’s no denying they have the talent to take down even the league’s best teams.
Joe Burrow comes to play in Week 5, taking advantage of a strong but susceptible Green Bay secondary to have one of the best games of his young NFL career. Teaming up with JaMarr Chase, Burrow accumulates nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, putting the pressure on Rodgers to keep pace in the scoring department.
The Packers keep it close but come up just short, as a last-second attempt to the end zone ends in the hands of a Bengal. It’s still early in the season, but Cincinnati further proves they belong in the playoff discussion.
Prediction: Bengals win 32-31 | Spread: Packers (-3.5)
Denver Broncos (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
I had a hard time deciding on who would walk away from this intriguing AFC showdown victorious. The Denver Broncos have been great this season, but an injury to Teddy Bridgewater and a surging Najee Harris could make this a closer matchup than the records would indicate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a rough go of things this season on the offensive side of the ball. Ben Roethlisberger is on a steep decline, although a lack of pass protection certainly isn’t helping. If it wasn’t for the emergence of Harris as a do-it-all workhorse running back, the Steelers would be in an even worse position moving forward.
The Broncos have been great, but their 3-1 record is slightly misleading. Their three wins came against some of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were nearly shut out when they ran up against a quality club. And now with Bridgewater potential out for Sunday’s game, it’s not looking good.
If Drew Lock starts, the Steelers walk away with a solid win that doesn’t take too much effort on their end. If Bridgewater, it’s closer but Pittsburgh still relies on their excellent defense to improve to 2-3.
Prediction: Steelers win 24-22 | Spread: Steelers (-1)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-1)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
I feel so tricked. After Week 1, I thought for sure the Philadelphia Eagles were going to be a competitive bunch in 2021. While it’s obviously still early in the year, I never would have guessed they’d follow up that performance with three straight losses.
Speaking of shocking outcomes, I also didn’t anticipate the Carolina Panthers sitting at 3-1 heading into Week 5. Although their three early wins came against one of the worst teams in the NFL, they’ve proven to be a capable bunch as Sam Darnold is finally playing in an environment that supports his talents.
This one, however, will come down to the Panthers defense, which is quietly asserting itself as one of the league’s elite units. With playmakers at every level, it’s excelled at pressuring quarterbacks, clogging run lanes and capitalizing on mistakes. Don’t be surprised if we see more of the same in this one, leading to plenty of frustration on Philly’s end.
Jalen Hurts has another solid game, but can’t muster enough points against Carolina’s stingy defense. And while the Philadelphia defense steps up to keep Darnold from blowing them out, it’s not enough when all is said and done.
Prediction: Panthers win 20-16 | Spread: Panthers (-4)
Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
Upset of the week? Possibly. Then again, with the way the Tennessee Titans have played this year, I wouldn’t necessarily call this an upset. Despite their 2-2 record, the Titans have been a shell of the team I expected them to be coming into the season.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have slowly been improving week over week. Obviously, that hasn’t culminated in a win yet, but this team has enough talent and coaching to notch at least a few wins in 2021. Maybe the first win of the Urban Meyer/Trevor Lawrence era will come against the Titans in Week 5.
There’s just no sense in how erratic the Titans have been this year. On paper, they’re one of the most talented offenses in the league with plenty of skill on the defensive end as well. It’s just not showing up on Sundays outside of Derrick Henry. We saw a prime example of that last weekend when they fell in overtime to the Jets.
It all finally clicks for Lawrence, who has his first big NFL game. Meyer shrugs off the current off-the-field drama and leads the Jaguars to their first victory of 2021, proving that he can in fact win at the professional level. And we all start to wonder if the Titans aren’t already worth counting out.
Prediction: Jaguars win 31-27 | Spread: Titans (-4)
Cleveland Browns (3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)
Sunday, October 10, 4:05PM ET
I’ve been a big supporter of the Los Angeles Chargers this season, and for good reason. Justin Herbert has been sensational, the defense is playing well, and the presence of Brandon Staley appears to be bringing out the best in that bunch.
Unfortunately, matchups matter. And when it comes to the Cleveland Browns, I think they may have a slight edge on the Chargers. Why? Well, their offense is exceptional, but it’s actually their outstanding defense that has me concerned about Los Angeles’ ability to produce points in Week 5.
As we saw in Week 4, the Browns know how to shut down top offenses. They held the Vikings to only seven points, as the pass rush kept Minnesota from ever getting things going. That could end up being the case against the Chargers as well, as Herbert could very well spend most of Sunday running for his life or picking himself up off the ground.
Cleveland keeps Herbert from another huge performance while relying on their excellent ground game to wear down the clock. It’s a tough, low-scoring affair that sees the Browns walk away with a hard-earned road win.
Prediction: Browns win 19-16 | Spread: Browns (-1)
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
Sunday, October 10, 4:05PM ET
The Las Vegas Raiders failed to retain their undefeated status in Week 4, but that doesn’t mean they’re suddenly on the decline — that’s just a statement on the Chargers’ talent. Unfortunately for the Chicago Bears, they don’t offer nearly as daunting of a challenge in Week 5.
The Bears may be coming off a win, but they’re not exactly smokin’ hot at this moment. There are still some questions under center, which has forced David Montgomery to basically become the entire Chicago offense. The defense has played well, but there’s too much pressure on its shoulders with the offense floundering at times.
That’s not going to bode well for the Bears in this game with the Raiders offense looking like one of the league’s best right now. They’re going to have a difficult time slowing Derek Carr, Darren Waller and the rest of the Raiders’ passing game. Plus, it’s not like they’re going to score a slew of their own touchdowns.
Chicago keeps it interesting with some defensive stops and a couple of big plays on offense, but Carr and Co. prove to be too much to handle. The Raiders get back on track and improve to 4-1.
Prediction: Raiders win 34-20 | Spread: Raiders (-5)
San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-0)
Sunday, October 10, 4:25PM ET
At this point, it’s really hard to pick against the Cardinals. They’ve been far from perfect this season, but they sport one of the most electric offenses we’ve seen in some time and keep finding ways to win on Sundays.
The same cannot be said for the San Francisco 49ers, a team that has now lost two straight games. Injuries continue to be problematic, and the offense isn’t producing enough to come away victorious. As great as many expected this team to be in 2021, it just hasn’t panned out — again, the caveat being that they’ve been ravaged by injuries.
With Trey Lance likely to be under center, the 49ers are not going to be up to the task of keeping pace with Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. With two quality running backs, an MVP-candidate quarterback and four outstanding receivers, there’s just no way to contain them on the scoreboard.
The Cardinals get the best of the NFC West rivals, hanging 30+ points on a defense that was thought to be among the top groups coming into the season. Lance gets sacked at least four times, turns it over at least twice, and joins the rest of the rookie quarterbacks the season with an ugly start under his belt.
Prediction: | Spread: Cardinals (-5.5)
New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Sunday, October 10, 1PM ET
That’s cute. The New York Giants got their first win and can finally say they’re back in the hunt for the NFC East. Or can they? Based on what we’ve seen from the rest of the division, I’m guessing their chances of contending for the title are slim to none.
The main reason for my disregard for the Giants within the division is the Dallas Cowboys. I hate to admit it, but they’re looking like one of the best teams in the NFL right now. They just knocked off the previously undefeated Panthers, and Dak Prescott is playing his best football yet. Plus, the Dallas defense has undergone marked improvement.
As for the Giants, they’re basically just hoping Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can pull off a miracle on a weekly basis. The New York defense has underwhelmed, and their other offensive weapons aren’t delivering. Honestly, I don’t think Jones and Barkley have it in them to carry this team very far on their own.
The Cowboys crush the Giants at home, riding another monumental performance from Prescott. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard get involved as well, and Trevon Diggs hauls in another interception or two. It’s a good day for Dallas fans.
Prediction: Cowboys win 41-19 | Spread: Cowboys (-7)
Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Sunday, October 10, 8:20PM ET
This is easily the matchup of the week despite the Kansas City Chiefs’ underwhelming 2-2 record. And yet, when all is said and done, I’m expecting it’ll be 2-3 because that’s just how good the Buffalo Bills are heading into Week 5.
I know the opposition has been largely inferior, but the Bills are steamrolling opponents right now. Over the last three games, they’ve outscored the opposition 118-21, with two of those outings resulting in shutouts. Their defense is downright dominant, which doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs despite their abundance of explosive talent.
As we’ve already seen this season, the Chiefs are far from invincible. Patrick Mahomes has been his usual self, but that doesn’t mean the Kansas City offense can’t stall at times. And the defense has been solid, but isn’t as sturdy as many were expecting coming into the 2021 campaign.
Josh Allen has another big game, and the Bills’ league-leading pass defense does its job. Mahomes still strikes paydirt a couple of times, but it’s not enough to stop the freight train that is the Bills.
Prediction: Bills win 31-28 | Spread: Chiefs (-3)
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Monday, October 11, 8:15PM ET
I’m sorry, but I just cannot get behind the Indianapolis Colts right now. They’ve underwhelmed all year long and just got their first win this past weekend against a reeling Dolphins club. I find the possibility of them toppling the Baltimore Ravens hard to believe.
Right now, the Ravens are one of the hottest teams in football right now. Although many of their wins have been close calls, they’re still winning and in dramatic fashion. Lamar Jackson is leading the charge, with a huge assist from a Baltimore defense that seems to get better week after week.
In this, I’m looking for the Ravens’ outstanding front seven to make Carson Wentz uncomfortable every time he drops back. And when the Colts try to give the ball to Jonathan Taylor, the Baltimore defense will again step up and shut it down — just as they did with the Broncos this past weekend.
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I’m sorry, but this Colts team isn’t what we thought they were. The Ravens, however, are legit contenders and will look like it on Monday night.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-10 | Spread: Ravens (-6.5)