NFL picks and score predictions for Week 11 as the 2021 season rolls along.
It seems odd to think that the 2021 NFL season is less than two months away from its inevitable end. It’s been quite the ride so far, and more excitement is sure to come. Before we start talking playoffs, though, we’ve got to get through the upcoming week of gridiron action.
As usual, we’ve got you covered with the Week 11 edition of NFL picks and score predictions. Just as in years passed, I’ll never claim to know what the future holds. As it turns out, odds are high at least a few of my picks will be completely wrong. I will, however, make my selections based on research, experience, and careful consideration.
Yikes. I’ll be honest — Week 10 was not kind to me. When all was said and done, my Week 10 NFL picks had resulted in a miserable 6-7-1 record, including 0-4 in the afternoon window. After that, my overall record moves to 98-51-1 on the year. Still, nothing to be embarrassed about, but that was a rather forgettable week of predictions on my part.
2021 NFL picks, score predictions for Week 11
Just remember that making picks is not a science. Plenty of research goes into it, but there’s no crystal ball — craziness occurs every Sunday. Then again, isn’t that part of the fun of it all?
Now that we’ve gotten all of that out of the way, here are my NFL picks and score predictions for Week 11. Just keep in mind that I assume no responsibility if you choose to place wagers based on my picks — that’s your decision, not mine.
Week 11 Byes: Denver Broncos (5-5), Los Angeles Rams (7-3) | All point spreads and odds are courtesy of WynnBet.
New England Patriots (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
Thursday, November 18, 8:20PM ET
I’m not sure anyone expected this sudden surge from the New England Patriots, but here we are. They’ve now won their last four games, and Mac Jones is looking like easily the best rookie quarterback of 2021. Furthermore, the New England defense is verging on elite status.
Just look at what they did last week — they held an (albeit injury-riddled) Cleveland Browns offense to only seven points. Their pass rush has been fierce, and their defensive backs are capitalizing on every single mistake. That’s creating more opportunities for Jones and Co., and they aren’t letting them slip through their fingers.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons are coming off a complete dismantling at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. I’d imagine they’ll bounce back a bit in Week 11, but it’s not a complete certainty considering how dominant the Patriots defense has been as of late.
The Falcons will find the end zone a time or two, but they’ll fall well short of even making this a game. New England may not have Tom Brady anymore, but it appears Bill Belichick doesn’t need to turn this team into a contender. Watch out for the Patriots down the stretch.
Prediction: Patriots win 33-17 | Spread: Patriots (-5)
New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
I’m sorry, but I just don’t have any confidence in the New Orleans Saints right now. I know they haven’t exactly tanked in recent weeks, but the lack of top talent at quarterback and other injuries on offense are limiting this team’s scoring potential too much.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are gaining momentum as we move past the midway point of the 2021 campaign. Jalen Hurts has been playing well down the stretch, and the Philadelphia ground game has looked great. With Jordan Howard and Boston Scott running wild and Hurts pitching in as a scrambler, it’s getting hard to slow the Eagles down.
Sure, the New Orleans defense will do its best to keep this one close. They may even succeed for the most part. Ultimately, though, the lack of offensive firepower on the Saints’ side is going to become too much to overcome.
The Eagles get another hard-fought win as they look to stay alive in the NFC Wild Card race, while the Saints take one step closer to falling into irrelevance. Who knew the loss of Jameis Winston could be so costly? Then again, not having a healthy Alvin Kamara is quite the hindrance as well.
Prediction: Eagles win 28-23 | Spread: Saints (-0)
Miami Dolphins (3-7) at New York Jets (2-7)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
It might be time to take the Miami Dolphins seriously. They came into the season as a potential contender in the AFC, but started 1-7 and suddenly seemed like a lost cause. Now, following two solid wins, it’s looking like they could sneak their way back into the playoff picture.
If that’s going to happen, it has to start with a win against the New York Jets in Week 11. Considering the way these two teams have been playing as of late, I don’t see a way in which the Jets manage to hand their AFC East rivals a defeat.
It’s actually been the Miami defense that has been getting the job done as of late. They’ve done a tremendous job of shutting down opposing offenses, putting pressure on quarterbacks, and creating turnovers. Against a questionable New York offense, we should see more of the same from the Dolphins D.
As long as Tua Tagovailoa has a decent game, Miami should have no trouble getting the win here. Look for the Dolphins to capitalize on every Jets mistake, creating at least three turnovers and a good amount of points off of said turnovers.
Prediction: Dolphins win 21-10 | Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)
Washington Football Team (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-5)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
I have to give the Washington Football Team credit. They pulled off an impressive upset against one of the best teams in the league and the defending champions. That, however, doesn’t mean I’m ready to dub them as a weekly lock to win.
Honestly, it seemed more like a letdown on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers part than a sudden realization of Washington’s ability. While the Carolina Panthers aren’t exactly a top contender at this point in the season, I believe they’re in a better position to take down the Football Team coming into Week 11.
The addition of Cam Newton has given this franchise some life, and early indications are he may get the start. If that’s the case, you have to believe the Carolina offense would offer far more upside than it has in weeks past. Combine that with their stellar defense, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster on Washington’s part.
Taylor Heinicke is fun to root for, and D.C. has some real scrappers in Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin. Unfortunately, their defense hasn’t done enough this season to convince me they can slow Newton and Christian McCaffrey. Carolina gets the close win at home.
Prediction: Panthers win 19-17 | Spread: Panthers (-3)
Indianapolis Colts (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
I like what the Indianapolis Colts have done over the last few weeks. Jonathan Taylor is emerging as one of the league’s top running backs, and Carson Wentz is finally playing like the quarterback the Colts thought they were getting. However, that won’t be enough in Week 11.
When the Buffalo Bills are on top of their game, they’re one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. Josh Allen is an electric presence under center, they’ve got plenty of weapons on offense, and their defense is among the opportunistic we’ve seen this season. As it turns out, that could work out in the Bills’ favor against Indy.
Wentz has been great down the stretch but he also has a tendency to take too many risks. The Bills defense loves to capitalize on silly mistakes and will do exactly that on Sunday. Every time we see Wentz toss up a prayer, expect it to go the other way before the whistle blows.
Allen has another big game, and Devin Singletary gets it going on the ground as well. The win, however, goes to the Bills defense, which makes life miserable for the Colts and keeps Taylor from going off the way he’s done the last few weeks.
Prediction: Bills win 34-21 | Spread: Bills (-6.5)
Detroit Lions (0-8-1) at Cleveland Browns (5-5)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
After a strong start to the season, injuries and some awful performances have watched the Browns fall out of favor in the AFC. While they’re far from out of the hunt, they’re going to need to turn things around in a big hurry if they plan on tasting the postseason.
A matchup with the still-winless Detroit Lions will likely help. That is, assuming they can get some of their best players on the field on Sunday. Baker Mayfield has been banged up all year and left the Browns’ Week 10 game with an injury. Injuries to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have also been painful bumps in the road for Cleveland.
This one will likely come down to whether or not the Browns can play some defense. They’re going up against a Lions team that is capable of scoring points with an exceptional ground game, but they’re also hindered with Jared Goff under center. Limit Goff and DeAndre Swift, and you should be able to win without too much struggle.
The Browns are more than capable of making the playoffs this season. However, until they get healthy, it’s anyone’s guess what they’ll be capable of on any given Sunday. The Lions shouldn’t be too hard to take down, but an upset is very possible.
Prediction: Browns win 23-20 | Spread: Browns (-10.5)
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
It’s a bit unexpected, but the San Francisco 49ers are slowly clawing their way back into the NFC playoff picture. They’ve won two of their last three games, and are only a win outside of the final Wild Card spot at this moment. Anything is possible with eight weeks still to go.
What’s helped is their improving health. Having George Kittle back on the field has been a big boost, and the rest of the offense is responding. The defense was always solid, but not being forced onto the field has elevated their effectiveness as well. Just ask the Rams if this San Francisco team is worth taking seriously.
As for the Jacksonville Jaguars… Well, they’re the Jaguars. Sure, they’ve won a couple of games and been competitive in others. But in the grand scheme of things, there’s little chance they actually muster more than another win or two before the season is over. And one of those will not come in Week 11 against this resilient 49ers team.
San Francisco scores early and often, and the defense overwhelms Trevor Lawrence. A couple of turnovers put this thing away in the third quarter, and which point the 49ers put it into cruise control and enjoy the beginning of a winning streak.
Prediction: 49ers win 34-16 | Spread: 49ers (-5)
Houston Texans (1-8) at Tennessee Titans (8-2)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
In all honesty, the Tennessee Titans aren’t playing great football right now. They’re down a number of their offensive weapons, which has kept them from causing too much damage when they’ve got the football. Luckily, their defense has stepped up to the challenge.
Another lucky break for the Titans is the fact they’ve got the 1-8 Houston Texans coming to town in Week 11. Despite their best efforts, the Texans have been the awful team they were expected to be in 2021. They haven’t won since Week 1, and I don’t foresee their fortunes taking a turn for the better against Tennessee.
It’s just a matter of the Titans’ defense continuing to play like it has of late. They should be able to shut down anything Houston throws at them. If that happens, Tennessee should be able to manufacture just enough offense between Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and D’Onta Foreman.
The Titans have survived over the last few weeks, but not having Derrick Henry has been a big crutch for their offense. Their matchup with the Texans is a perfect opportunity to continue working out the offensive kinks and figuring out how to move the football with the players they currently have available.
Prediction: Titans win 27-17 | Spread: Titans (-10.5)
Green Bay Packers (8-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
As a Minnesota Vikings fan, I would love for them to win this game and stick it to the Green Bay Packers. However, as someone who tries to make these predictions with as little bias as possible, I can’t in good conscience gives this Week 11 showdown to the Vikings.
Even with Aaron Jones set to miss time, Minnesota is still going to have a tough time slowing the Green Bay offense. Aaron Rodgers continues to play some of his best football, and he’s got Davante Adams to throw to. What else do the Packers really need to put points on the board?
With that said, the Vikings won’t go quietly. Their defense is better than advertised and is more than capable of making Rodgers consistently uncomfortable in the pocket. It’s going to take a great game plan to get going on offense, but Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson should make some noise — even against Green Bay’s excellent defense.
Ultimately, the Packers get the best of the Vikings in what should be a fierce NFC North battle. It might very well come down to the last possession, as nearly every Minnesota game has so far this season.
Side note: I’ve picked the Vikings to lose in every game they’ve won this season. Just saying.
Prediction: Packers win 27-23 | Spread: Packers (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Chicago Bears (3-6)
Sunday, November 21, 1PM ET
Just when we were starting to feel like the Baltimore Ravens had put it all together, they stumble and faceplant against the Dolphins on Thursday night. Now, they’ll be looking for a bounce-back win against a Chicago Bears team that’s dropped their last four games.
If I had to guess, I’d say they get what they’re looking for. While the Ravens have been far from perfect this season, they’ve certainly been resilient. They may have suffered a painful defeat at the hands of the Dolphins, but they still sit atop the AFC North and are one of the conference’s top contenders. A win against the Bears will allow them to keep pace.
Lamar Jackson figures to let it fly against the Chicago defense, racking up big yards with both his arm and his legs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson found the end zone at least three times, relying on weapons like Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown to surgically dissect the Bears’ secondary.
Justin Fields makes a few big plays, but the young quarterback still hasn’t figured out how to be the difference-maker. The Bears keep it somewhat close until the final few minutes, but their lack of offensive firepower costs them yet another game.
Prediction: Ravens win 34-26 | Spread: Ravens (-6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
Sunday, November 21, 4:05PM ET
It’s time for the Cincinnati Bengals to right the ship. They’re coming off a bye week after two straight losses to beatable opponents. They looked like a legitimate contender in the AFC at one point, so why can’t they return to form in Week 11 against a reeling Las Vegas Raiders squad?
Joe Burrow is still one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, and he’s got plenty of exciting weapons to work with. And prior to their slump, the Cincinnati defense was looking like one of the better units in the league. If the Bengals can get things going on offense, they could easily outperform the Raiders.
That’s not to say Derek Carr and his gaggle of playmakers aren’t capable of scoring in bunches. However, they’ve stumbled as of late and are coming off an embarrassing effort against a woeful Kansas City defense. If they can’t score against the Chiefs, there’s little hope for them against the Bengals.
Cincinnati bounces back in a big way, handing the Raiders their second blowout loss in as many weeks. Burrow has a big day, and even Joe Mixon gets going on the ground for over 100 yards. The Bengals are suddenly back in the conversion among top AFC threats.
Prediction: Bengals win 37-20 | Spread: Bengals (-1)
Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-6)
Sunday, November 21, 4:25PM ET
The Arizona Cardinals need Kyler Murray back in the worst of ways. Three early turnovers in Week 10 basically dug Colt McCoy and Co. into a hole they couldn’t find their way out of, and it’s clear McCoy isn’t the answer against quality defenses.
That’s what the Cardinals will face again in Week 11 when they head north to take on the Seattle Seahawks. While the Seahawks’ record isn’t impressive and some numbers suggest the Seattle defense isn’t great, they’ve perfected the bend without breaking approach. It won’t be easy to find the end zone on Sunday, especially if Murray can’t go.
Considering Murray was bouncing around ahead of the Cardinals’ Week 10 outing, there’s optimism he’ll be ready to go. And if that’s the case, I’m giving this one to Arizona. Between Murray and James Conner, they shouldn’t have too much trouble putting points on the board. If Murray can’t go, though, it may be a different story.
For now, we’ll assume Murray is on the field. That’ll mean points for the Cardinals. And seeing as Russell Wilson looked like a shell of his former self in his return to the field, I’m thinking the Seahawks offense is sluggish and fails to match Arizona in the points department.
Prediction: Cardinals win 36-25 | Spread: Cardinals (-2.5)
Dallas Cowboys (7-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
Sunday, November 21, 4:25PM ET
It’s funny — the Kansas City Chiefs get a quality win and suddenly everyone assumes all of the issues we’ve seen over the past few weeks are gone. Despite the Week 11 win, this Chiefs team still has a long way to go before their back atop the list of AFC contenders.
We’ll all be reminded of that on Sunday when they welcome the Dallas Cowboys to Arrowhead Stadium. Yes, I’m talking about the same Cowboys who dismantled the Falcons this past Sunday and have one of the best records in the NFL. The same ones who have a devastating offense and a defense that loves to create turnovers.
Oh, and they’re going against one of the most turnover-prone offenses in the league. I know Patrick Mahomes has been better about protecting the football as of late, but that doesn’t mean a slip-up isn’t in the cards. Trevon Diggs is salivating at the opportunity to haul in his ninth interception of the season.
You can call this an upset if you’d like, but the Chiefs are getting more credit than they deserve after blowing out an out-of-sorts Raiders team. The Cowboys spoil their fun and hand them their fifth loss of the year while taking one step closer to clinching a postseason spot.
Prediction: Cowboys win 41-34 | Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Sunday, November 21, 8:20PM ET
Man, these predictions are getting tougher as the season ages. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers have shown potential this year, but have also slipped up at times and are dealing with issues that could keep them from pulling off the win in Week 11.
For the Steelers, their chances will take a serious hit if Ben Roethlisberger isn’t on the field. He already missed Week 10 while riding the COVID list, and it’s unclear if he’ll be available for the team’s trip to LA. If he can’t go, Mason Rudolph inspires little confidence against a solid Chargers secondary.
For the Chargers, it’s just been an up-and-down season. Many of their games have come down to the wire, and it’s hard to know which Justin Herbert will show up on Sunday. If they get the youngster’s best, they’ll light up a Steelers defense that could potentially be without both T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
So many ifs in this one. Seeing as the Steelers are dealing with COVID issues that could result in another start for Rudolph, I’m siding with the Chargers, who have a sometimes explosive offense but are exploitable against the run — congrats to fantasy owners with Najee Harris (like myself).
Prediction: Chargers win 26-24 | Spread: Chargers (-5)
New York Giants (3-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Monday, November 22, 8:15PM ET
Making this pick really ate at me. I’m losing confidence in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the playoffs grow near, and the New York Giants have been better this season than their record indicates. If it wasn’t for a slew of injuries, they’d be much higher in the standings.
However, I just can’t count out Brady and this Buccaneers’ offense at this point in the season. Even after a couple of underwhelming performances, Tampa Bay is more than capable of blowing up in the final two months. Especially against a New York team that lacks offensive firepower outside of Daniel Jones, the Buccaneers have the clear edge here.
That is, if their defense doesn’t crumble under the weight of the pressure that comes with defending a Super Bowl. Defense has been Tampa Bay’s Achilles heel this season, often sputtering and putting too much pressure on Brady and the offense to produce.
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Luckily, the Giants offense is too bruised and battered to pose too much of a threat in Week 11. Jones keeps things interesting for the G-Men, but the Buccaneers clearly outclass them in the scoring department and get a much-needed win in primetime.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 32-23 | Spread: Buccaneers (-11)